Risk Off, Tariff Wars = Defense!

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ recently tested their resistance levels at the 200-day moving average (DMA) before returning to key support levels on Friday. If these support levels fail to hold, we may see capitulation selling, driving the market down another 3% to 8% as it tests the following levels of support. The S&P 500 is down 4.9% year-to-date (YTD), and the NASDAQ is down 10.3% YTD, suggesting that we may already be in a recession or bear market. The market hates uncertainty, and a tariff war that spirals into a recession is a real possibility. However, even in this challenging environment, there are opportunities for profit, such as in gold, silver, and ETFs that short the indexes.

I maintain a 25% risk-off position, with 15% in a gold ETF and 10% in a silver ETF. These ETFs are backed by physical gold and silver stored in vaults for every share issued. I view gold and silver as a hedge against the inflation caused by the Federal Reserve’s money printing, which erodes the purchasing power of fiat currency—money created from thin air and not backed by tangible assets.

Global central banks are stockpiling physical gold in preparation for a new, gold-backed currency. Gold is currently at an all-time high, trading at $3,086 per ounce, and I expect its price to climb even higher as the Fed continues to print more fiat money to finance the nation’s debt and deficits. Cryptocurrencies, like fiat currencies, are ultimately backed by nothing and created out of thin air, much like our nation’s trillions of dollars in debt. The Federal Reserve is creating inflation to devalue $37 trillion in debt, as it is impossible to repay that amount with today’s dollars. This is why they’ll continue to print more fiat currency, essentially repaying debt with devalued, cheaper dollars. Throughout history, every fiat currency has been destroyed by governments printing too much money too quickly, and the US dollar won’t be an exception. When paper money loses value, people turn to hard assets like gold. My highest conviction trade remains physical gold.

In the early 1900s, Charles Ponzi promised investors high returns through postal reply coupons but instead used new investor money to pay earlier investors. Do you think the Federal Reserve and Social Security system is essentially a giant Ponzi scheme, where profits are paid to earlier investors using funds from newer ones?

The stock market is increasingly focused on rising inflation and declining consumer sentiment, signaling concerns of a potential economic slowdown. In this environment, gold continues to shine. In 1913, the national debt was only 8% of GDP, but today, it has ballooned to 140%, growing by nearly 8% annually. According to Moody’s Analytics, the top 10% of Americans, mostly Baby Boomers, accounted for 36% of consumer spending 30 years ago, but that figure has now risen to 50%. In 2024, Baby Boomers increased their spending by 12%, while the other 90% of Americans spent less. This is a classic example of a K-shaped economy, where the wealthy prosper while everyone else struggles. Over the past four years under Biden, spending by the bottom 80% of Americans remained flat, while the rich increased spending by nearly a third. If Boomers reduce spending and increase savings due to uncertainty, we could see less economic growth and higher inflation, leading to stagflation. The Fed can’t bail us out of stagflation like it did in past crises, so it’s crucial to adopt a defensive strategy and prepare for what’s ahead.

Get to know the One who created you, and seek His Wisdom. Wishing you the best returns. Grace and peace!

Watch List: ADMA, AHR, ATGE, ATRO, CPK, CPRX, CRK, EHC, EVER, ETR, FMS, GOLD, HEI, OLLI, OPCH, PAGP, NEM, PAA, PHYS, PSLV, RGLD, RYAN, SE, SKWD, TGTX, TW, WELL.

The Lord gives Wisdom; from his mouth comes knowledge and understanding. Proverbs 2:6

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Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676, ChristianMoneyBlog.net
100% BRI, Honoring God with Our Investments!
Actively Managing Risk Since 1990!
 

There is ongoing uncertainty regarding how tariffs will affect corporate earnings, leading to a generally bearish sentiment among investors (AAII 58%). The S&P 500 and NASDAQ are trading below their 200-day moving averages, indicating a higher-risk market environment. Effective risk management is critical for long-term financial success, and I am not willing to risk my savings on the belief that the market will always rise. My focus is on managing risk to avoid potentially life-altering losses. Ultimately, only God knows what the future holds, and I seek His guidance daily, trusting in His wisdom. When the market rewards me, I stay invested, but I hedge or sell when risks are high. I take full responsibility for my investments, knowing no one cares about my money more than I do. All my investable assets are in my Fund, and if you’d like me to manage your money as I do my own, consider investing in my Fund to share the same returns.

My portfolio comprises 15% in a gold ETF that holds physical gold, two gold stocks (5% each), and one software stock (1%), showing strong earnings and sales growth with solid charts. The once-popular “Mag 7” stocks have now become the “Lag 7” as large investors pull back. I believe the market will find a bottom once analysts gain more clarity on the effects of tariffs. Gold could serve as an early signal that inflation is rising while the economy slows (stagflation).

Fed Chairman Jay Powell has stated that tariff-induced price increases will be “transitory,” which could be an attempt to use tariffs as a scapegoat for inflation. Quantitative Tightening (QT) will slow from $25 billion to $5 billion monthly starting in April, with Powell forecasting two more rate cuts this year. The Fed has already reduced its COVID-era balance sheet by 25%, from $9 trillion in April 2022 to $6.7 trillion. Powell plans to allow mortgage bonds to “roll off” and purchase Treasuries, signaling a return to quantitative easing (QE). With $28 trillion of the $36 trillion national debt maturing in the next four years, the Fed is preparing to buy more Treasuries to support the bond market as global confidence in America’s ability to repay its debts wanes. As central banks grow more concerned about America’s high debt-to-GDP ratio (over 120%), they increasingly turn to gold, reflecting a broader loss of faith in fiat currencies. Gold is now at an all-time high ($3,025/oz), while the dollar has lost 98% of its purchasing power since Nixon took us off the gold standard in 1971. The Fed creates money and credit out of thin air, leading to inflation and rising prices that seldom decrease. Growth stocks with accelerating earnings and sales may offer some protection against inflation.

Fiat money, which relies on government taxation and debt repayment, is inherently fragile. History has shown that all fiat systems eventually collapse, and nations with the most gold will likely have the most trusted and resilient currencies. I believe the collapse of the fiat system is likely to occur within the next 10 years, so I prioritize risk management to protect my assets from potentially life-altering losses. Wishing you the best returns. Grace & Peace!

If anyone lacks wisdom, ask God, who gives to all generously and without reproach. James 1:5

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Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676, ChristianMoneyBlog.net
100% BRI, Honoring God with Our Investments!
Actively Managing Risk Since 1990!
 

Friday’s rebound was driven mainly by Congress avoiding a government shutdown, which could have added more uncertainty to an already jittery market. However, tariff wars continue to weigh on the markets and persist until analysts can better gauge how reciprocal tariffs may affect future earnings. Investors are seeking safe havens, and gold has been a primary beneficiary. I hold a 15% position in a gold ETF, with the remainder in cash, waiting for a Follow Through Day (FTD).

FTDs can happen four days after a market bottom if a major index closes 1% higher on increased volume. An FTD signals that significant money is flowing back into the market, and I’ll be ready to buy stocks at their pivot points when that happens. Risk management is crucial during corrections. The S&P 500 dropped 10% from February 19, 2025, to March 13, 2025, officially entering a correction. The NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, and OTC indices experienced greater declines than the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is down 4% year-to-date, so it’s important to be cautious.

The AAII Bear indicator has been over 55% for three consecutive weeks, a pattern that has only been observed once before—on March 4, 2009, which marked a market low. Friday could have been a market bottom, but we need more time to confirm. Junk bonds are performing positively this year, suggesting this could be a minor correction, but risk management remains key.

Inflation is cooling, allowing the Fed to cut rates, potentially boosting stock prices. Hedge funds have been more leveraged long in U.S. equities than at any point in the last five years, with Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) almost 300% leveraged in stocks, which contributed to the 2024 rally. Traders were essentially “pulling forward” gains based on strong earnings expected in 2025. However, the “Deep Seek Black Swan” event has led companies to adjust their AI spending, and analysts are revising earnings expectations, signaling that we may be nearing more certainty than last week. The market struggles with uncertainty and is already discounting future earnings, which impacts stock prices. Stocks with great fundamentals without the technicals are not actionable; patience and discipline win. Grace & Peace!

Love each other, just as I (Jesus) have loved you. John 13:34

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Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676, ChristianMoneyBlog.net
Actively Managing Risk Since 1990!

The S&P 500 fell below its 200-day moving average (DMA) but bounced back above it on Friday, signaling support from institutional investors. The last two times the index tested this level were August 9, 2024, and November 3, 2023. It’s crucial that the S&P holds this key support level, or the market could face more significant challenges. Uncertainty is the market’s enemy, and escalating trade wars and tariffs could lead to slower growth and rising inflation—potentially resulting in stagflation. Tariffs will likely drive up costs across all goods and services, further fueling inflation expectations, which could ultimately hurt corporate earnings. Playing defense may be the best strategy to minimize losses in a bear market.

Many stock charts have broken down, and they will take time to repair. According to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD), we need a Follow Through Day (FTD) before considering new buys. An FTD occurs when the market rallies more than 1% on higher volume, four days after an up day, making Wednesday the earliest potential day to buy. However, I don’t see many stocks in favorable buying zones besides defensive stocks, which isn’t a bullish sign. I moved to all-cash (defensive) on February 21, 2025, and will wait for an FTD before re-entering the market.

On the global stage, Trump recently criticized Europe and Germany for not investing enough in defense and suggested the U.S. might pull out of NATO, leaving Europe to fend for itself. The European Central Bank (ECB) can’t monetize debt through asset purchases while inflation remains above target. Germany will likely need to tap into global credit markets, increasing competition for U.S. Treasuries, especially now that it may need to offer higher yields to attract investors. This dynamic caused a 3.5% drop in the dollar last week, as German yields surged due to increased government borrowing to finance military support for Ukraine. The higher yields on German bonds also led the Euro to rise 4.4% as investors sought higher returns in European currencies.

On Friday, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP growth estimate plummeted from 2.3% to a negative 1.5%, signaling the possibility of a recession that may have begun weeks before Trump took office. Consumer spending is declining, and the savings rate is increasing. In times like this, the risk isn’t worth the potential reward, so it’s better to step aside, wait for a solid market bottom, and watch for stocks to break out from sound bases.

Sin will have no dominion over you, since you are not under law but under grace. Romans 6:14

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Last week, the NASDAQ dropped 3.5%, bouncing off its 200-day moving average (DMA), which serves as key institutional support. This marks the third test of significant support levels since March 2023, so we must maintain institutional demand at these levels. Each time the market tests these key support zones (like the 50 and 200dma), the likelihood of them being held decreases. Institutional investors (hedge funds, pensions, sovereign wealth funds) drive our trends, and the long-term trend is still positive. However, these support levels must hold, or we could be headed for a recession or bear market.

There’s been an uptick in down days on above-average volume, signaling heavy selling from big-money investors. Knowing when to “hold em or fold em” is essential for meeting long-term financial goals. When the market isn’t rewarding risk, I stick to my rules, step aside, and wait for stocks to break out of sound base pattern price pivots. Smart money looks ahead six to twelve months and positions itself accordingly. The market is adjusting expectations for future stock profits in light of the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico (and 10% on China) set to impact Tuesday, March 4, 2025. The market doesn’t like uncertainty, so stocks are being sold off in anticipation of how these tariffs might affect corporate profits. The return of open, tariff-free international trade could push the market higher out of this trading range, but that is unlikely.

Gold has only dipped about 3% from its all-time highs, with investors flocking to it as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. The U.S. Treasury has been issuing more short-term T-bills to service our national debt rather than long-term bonds, which has helped reduce mortgage rates, potentially boosting the housing market. Falling rates might also be a reaction to fears of a tariff-induced recession. Oil prices have been sliding since mid-January, possibly due to recession worries, likely leading to reduced oil demand. Consumer confidence dropped last week as expectations for slower economic activity grew. NVIDIA posted solid earnings, but the stock still fell below its 50-dma. Many growth stocks face technical breakdowns and need time to recover, so I’m staying patient and waiting for better setups.

The market’s primary concern is uncertainty, and this Friday’s job report could clarify whether we stay in a trading range or heading into a bear market. Friday saw many oversold stocks showing “undercut and rally” patterns, a sign of potential accumulation. That would be a bullish signal if these recent lows hold. However, if these levels break down with increased volume, I will adopt a more bearish stance and look for stocks or ETFs to short.

The AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) survey shows a record-high 60.6% bearish sentiment, and the CNN Fear/Greed index indicates extreme fear. These are often viewed as contrarian signals, suggesting retail investors have already capitulated, which could mean the worst is over. Tariffs on Tuesday could push us into a recession/bear market, or the market could ignore it and move higher. May God’s grace and peace bless you!

As each has received a gift, use it to serve one another as good stewards of God’s grace. 1 Peter 4:10

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Active Risk Management, CANSLIM Investing
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Caution!

On Friday, the S&P 500 index fell by 1.71%, reaching its 50-day moving average support level on above-average trading volume, indicating potential distribution. The NASDAQ index experienced a 2.2% decline and failed to secure institutional support, dipping below its critical 50-day moving average. The Russell 2000 index, representing small-cap stocks, is trading beneath its 200-day moving average, while mid-cap stocks barely hold above this level. Factors contributing to this downturn may include options expiration, weak consumer demand forecasts from Walmart, and Microsoft’s cancellation of AI contracts, which included penalties. Many leading growth stocks suffered significant losses, resulting in numerous damaged charts requiring time to recover. A rebound is anticipated on Monday; however, further selling could push the S&P 500 down an additional 3.5% before it finds its next support level. High-volume declines are warning signs that often precede bear markets. Should the indexes consistently trade below their 50-day moving averages, I will explore short-selling opportunities.

Since January 10th, 10-year Treasury yields have declined, approaching the 4% support level, signaling economic weakness. The dollar began to weaken following the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause rate cuts on December 18th. Crude oil prices have dropped to around $65 due to increased supply, potentially coupled with weak demand. Consumer discretionary stocks (XLY) have fallen below their 50-day moving averages on significant volume, while consumer staples (XLP) have rallied, reflecting a shift in sentiment and a slowing economy. Homebuilders (XHB), often viewed as an economic indicator, peaked weeks ago. Although gold has remained stable near all-time highs, gold stocks faced substantial losses on Friday. Regional banks (KRE) have also fallen below their 50-day moving averages on high volume, indicating weak consumer loan demand under financial strain. While China appears stable, trust in a communist government is questionable. Reduced government spending constitutes one-third of GDP and could hinder economic growth. The favorable economic conditions are diminishing; prices remain high, inflation persists, and signs of economic slowdown may lead us toward stagflation, which is concerning.

Wednesday is judgment day for NVDA as it releases earnings for its Blackwell chip demand after the Deep Seek China news of a more efficient AI program. The indexes have been in a trading range since December 18^th, so NVDA’s earnings and guidance could be a game changer for AI and economic growth. I am short-term bearish but remain open-minded, seeking to make money and avoid life-changing losses. May God’s Grace & Peace Bless You!

Blessed is the one who perseveres under trial because, having stood the test, that person will receive the crown of life that the Lord has promised to those who love him. James 1:12

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Active Risk Management, CANSLIM Investing
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The S&P 500 and NASDAQ are approaching historical peaks, and I anticipate they will break out and resume their uptrends after basing (going sideways) since December. The market has absorbed the negative news regarding interest rates, inflation, tariffs, and geopolitical conflicts, which now appears poised for further gains; thus, we are positioned to participate in the next phase of this bull market. Our portfolio comprises a well-diversified selection of approximately 27 stocks, with significant allocations in the gold, software, and medical sectors. I have been strategically limiting losses to around 5% of our cost basis while taking profits near 10%, yielding favorable outcomes. Artificial intelligence remains the prevailing theme, and numerous stocks are adjusting to the transformative efficiency results from Deep Seek, indicating that it may take some time for the market to realign with the new leaders. I plan to follow the big money by looking for stocks advancing on above-average volume.

Gold is currently experiencing institutional accumulation as it approaches $3,900 per ounce, supported by above-average trading volume. Recently, Trump issued an Executive Order (EO) instructing the Treasury to devise a plan within 90 days for establishing a sovereign wealth fund (SWF). This EO can potentially prompt the United States to reassess its reported gold reserves from $45 to $3,900, shoring up its balance sheet. It is possible that some of this gold has been loaned out (hypothecated) to other countries, and the creation of a SWF could necessitate the re-hypothecation of gold back to Fort Knox. This repatriation of gold to its rightful owner (the US) may account for some of the recent surge in gold prices to record levels.

The Chinese government now permits insurance companies and citizens to purchase gold for their accounts. Traditionally, gold has served as a reliable store of value and a safeguard against inflation. Gold and the stock market are likely headed higher! May God’s Grace & Peace Bless You!

Grace was given to each of us according to the measure of Christ’s gift. Ephesians 4:7

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Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676  Dexter@ChristianMoneyBlog.net
Active Risk Management, CANSLIM Investing
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Digestion/Distribution in a Bull Market!

The current phase of digestion and distribution in a bull market is noteworthy. Growth stocks exhibiting accelerating earnings and sales are experiencing institutional accumulation; however, the overall market weight impedes their progress. Despite this, we remain in a bull market, with leading growth stocks poised to elevate the indexes in the upcoming week. The indexes have been consolidating recent gains, moving sideways (above the 50-day moving average) within a trading range close to all-time highs. The market is recovering from the shock of the Federal Reserve’s unexpected pause in rate cuts on December 18, during which we observed approximately six distribution days (defined as a price decline exceeding 1% on increased volume) on the NASDAQ and three on the S&P 500. The market experienced a sell-off on Friday due to potential tariff news anticipated over the weekend; however, futures show positive movement on Sunday night, suggesting a potentially favorable week ahead.

In December, consumer credit surged to over $40 billion, marking the largest increase on record, indicating that consumers continue to spend despite rising prices. The anticipated consumer debt was around $16 billion, which was a surprise, particularly given that individuals face interest rates of approximately 23% on their credit card debt. The Federal Reserve has contributed to inflation by increasing the money supply and extending credit. If the Fed were genuinely combating inflation, we would expect a contraction in credit; however, this is not the case. The Fed’s policies remain overly accommodative, raising concerns about the potential for stagflation, characterized by a slowing economy coupled with rising inflation. The absence of a contingency plan from the Fed to address stagflation could lead to a significant downturn in the stock market, raising serious concerns for the future.

Gold is a safeguard against inflation and is trading close to its historical peak of around $2,873 per ounce. Central banks are adding to their gold reserves in response to the decline in purchasing power of fiat currencies, which are issued without tangible backing. Notably, one ounce of gold still has the purchasing power to buy the same amount of bread as 2,000 years ago when Jesus walked the earth. Gold is acknowledged as a reliable store of value and may function as a medium of exchange in critical situations. Gold is experiencing a bull market and represents my largest investment allocation.

Japanese 10-year treasury yields are experiencing an upward trend, currently yielding 1.3%, which marks a 15-year peak. Concurrently, inflation in Japan is approximately 3.6%, and the debt-to-GDP ratio hovers around 250%. The increase in yields is attributed to rising inflation expectations in Japan, mirroring trends observed in the United States. This situation may compel Japan to liquidate US Treasuries to stabilize the yen. Hedge funds, utilizing significant leverage (up to 100:1), have borrowed yen at rates near 25 basis points, invested in higher-yielding Treasuries through the yen carry trade, and have benefited from substantial spreads for many years. However, should Japanese yields escalate too quickly, the yen carry trade could unwind abruptly. Such a rapid unwinding could disrupt global stock markets if there is a significant sell-off of US Treasuries. Trump is aware of the developments in Japan and is likely to take measures to avert a potential crash in the stock and bond markets during his administration.

Bottom line: We remain in a bull market, with the indexes likely to break free from this period of sideways trading and reach new all-time highs. This week, Powell will testify before Congress, and we will also receive the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data. A recent report indicates that DeepSeek has invested over $1 billion in its computer cluster. The frequently cited figure of $6 million is quite misleading, as it does not account for capital expenditures (CAPEX) and research and development (R&D), and it primarily reflects the cost of the final training run. Trump is currently “studying” the potential for a strategic Bitcoin reserve, which can be interpreted as an indication that it is unlikely to materialize. Disciplined risk management and appropriate position sizing are crucial for achieving long-term success. Grace & Peace!

The grace of God has appeared, bringing salvation to all people. Titus 2:11

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Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676  Dexter@ChristianMoneyBlog.net
Active Risk Management, CANSLIM Investing
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Deep Seek & Tariffs!

Last Monday, the NASDAQ 100 (NAZ) and S&P 500 (SPX) indexes dropped below their 50-day moving averages on above-average volume following the Deep Seek news. Deep Seek, a Chinese startup, introduced a new AI model that uses cheaper chips and less data, resulting in lower heat production and increased efficiency compared to current models. If their claims hold up, it could disrupt many AI companies. Despite the sharp drop, many of the stocks that were hit hardest on Monday have since rebounded, which is encouraging. Some of my sell-stops were triggered, so I repositioned into medical and software stocks, breaking out of solid bases. There are still a lot of stocks under institutional accumulation, which leads me to believe the bull market may not be over just yet. However, I’m cautious due to about seven distribution days (a 1% decline on above-average volume), which is a concern.

On Friday afternoon, Trump announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, causing the market to reverse course and close lower on significant volume. As I write this on Sunday night, futures indicate a rough opening on Monday.

The Fed hinted that it was nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle on December 18. The indexes slipped below their 50-day moving averages shortly after, marking the first of seven distribution days. Since then, the NAZ has struggled but found support at its July 11 peak. I expect the NAZ to hold above its 50-day moving average, but further correction could be in the cards if it fails. The market seemed stable after the Fed held rates steady on Wednesday, but the Trump tariff news shifted the momentum.

I believe Trump is an effective negotiator working in America’s best interest, and ultimately, his policies will benefit the country. I don’t argue with the market—the price is always right. My health and peace of mind are far more important than any stock. If a stock doesn’t perform as expected, I’ll stick to my loss-cutting rules and live to trade another day. In the long run, we win!

Bottom Line: The bulls are still in control, but that could change. I’ll continue following the trends created by big money while sticking to my rules to ensure I can keep investing. Risk management and position sizing are key to long-term success. Grace & Peace!

May the God of hope fill you with all joy and peace in believing, so that by the power of the Holy Spirit you may abound in hope. Romans 15:13

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Digesting Gains? The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indexes have rallied about 5% in just 7 days and are approaching all-time highs. A short digestion period (~3%) of these recent over-bought gains is needed before the uptrend resumes. The market is optimistic about Trump’s policies—lower taxes, less regulation, and smaller government—which bode well for growth. When a company shows strong earnings and sales growth, I look for a pivot point to buy the stock, typically when it breaks out of a base on above-average volume. These base breakouts have been working in this bull market, and I expect them to continue. Historically, growth stocks have outpaced both inflation and taxes.

Treasury Bonds and the Dollar The 20-year Treasury Bonds appear to have hit a short-term bottom, rallying more than 2% since 1/14/25, causing yields to drop. Rising rates have been a headwind for the market. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is weakening, breaking its uptrend. A declining dollar should benefit international stocks as they convert overseas profits into dollars. A weaker dollar is also favorable for gold, trading near all-time highs and showing a low-volatility uptrend. Silver, in contrast, is not being heavily accumulated by central banks, so I focus more on gold. Gold stocks are not yet at all-time highs, and they have plenty of room to catch up, so gold remains the better choice. Oil prices are declining as the “drill, baby, drill” agenda takes effect. I expect oil to drop from $75 to around $65 and consolidate for a while. Consumer staple stocks are in a downtrend, which reduces the likelihood of an imminent recession.

Fed Meeting and Market Outlook The Fed’s meeting on Wednesday could significantly impact the market. The last time the Fed met on 12/18/25, the market dropped about 3% on high volume, as the Fed mentioned they may be nearing the end of the rate reduction cycle. Markets typically react positively to rate cuts and negatively to rate hikes. We could hear dovish comments about rate cuts if the Fed views recent cooling inflation (PPI and CPI) as a positive sign. However, if they adopt a hawkish stance and raise rates, we could see a 10% correction. Chairman Jay Powell will likely avoid taking actions that harm Trump’s agenda.

Global Economic Factors Japan raised rates last week to combat inflation, which could hurt our Treasury Bonds since Japan is our second-largest creditor after the Fed. If higher rates in Japan slow down their economy too quickly, it could force Japan to sell U.S. bonds, driving yields higher and potentially harming our stock market and economy. However, I trust Trump will prioritize America’s interests and negotiate a favorable deal with Japan.

Bottom Line: The bull market is alive and well, with AI leading the charge and Trump focusing on putting America first. I am bullish but with a slight hedge (ETF shorting NASDAQ 100). Earnings are exceeding expectations, which is lifting many sectors. If I’m wrong, I will quickly adjust my positions to minimize risk, as risk management and position sizing are crucial for long-term success.

“It is by Grace you have been saved, through faith, and this is not from yourselves; it is the gift of God, not by works, so that no one can boast.” Ephesians 2:8-9  

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Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676  Dexter@ChristianMoneyBlog.net
Active Risk Management, CANSLIM Investing
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