Check out my YouTube interview—for a quick take on where things may be headed.

Gold is trading near an all-time high of $3,327/oz, up around 26% year-to-date. I hold a 25% position (my max) in an ETF that holds physical gold, with the remaining 75% in a government-backed money market fund.

What’s fueling gold’s rise? Central banks—especially China—may be preparing for a gold-backed currency, and gold remains a classic hedge against inflation. In addition, high tariffs on Chinese goods imported into the U.S. may be prompting China to sell U.S. Treasuries and dollars.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is down ~10%, and the dollar has weakened ~8% YTD. In contrast, the Euro, Yen, and Swiss Franc are each up over 10%. We could be witnessing a shift from a strong dollar policy to a weak dollar policy. That would make U.S. exports more competitive and could ease the pressure of financing our $37 trillion national debt. Higher Treasury yields make debt refinancing more expensive—so a lower dollar and lower rates may be the new playbook.

Currently, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are trading below their 50- and 200-day moving averages, signaling increased risk. In this environment, preserving cash might be smarter than chasing returns. With trade tensions escalating and uncertain earnings guidance, we could be stuck in a high-risk, low-reward market until a clear catalyst emerges.

Bitcoin is down ~9% YTD, showing that digital gold hasn’t taken the throne from physical gold—yet. While gold is extended, I expect it to move higher.

I’m staying patient and keeping my stock watchlist fresh. I’m waiting for a Follow Through Day (FTD)—a key technical signal marked by a 1%+ index gain on higher volume, at least four days after a market bottom attempt. I’ll look for fundamentally sound stocks breaking out on strong technical volume when that happens.

I don’t expect the next bull market to be led by the “Magnificent 7” from the last one. Instead, I’m eyeing leadership for insurance, international banking, and precious metals stocks.

The market may be setting up for a great buying opportunity—but for now, gold could remain the winner. Until conditions improve, sometimes the best offense is not losing.

Most importantly, Jesus died for all sins. If we believe, we receive His grace.

Grace & Peace to you and your loved ones this Easter!

Watch List: ADMA, AEM, ATGE, AXON, DRS, EGO, ESLT, IBN, IDR, LRN, MRX, NWG, PEN, PLTR, PRMB, RBA, SFM, SNEX, STN, VIRT & PHYS.

Praise be to the God and Father of our Lord Jesus Christ! In his great mercy, he gave us new birth into a living hope through the resurrection of Jesus Christ from the dead. 1 Peter 1:3

If you know anyone who would like to receive these updates or invest with me, please Email or call me. 

Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676, ChristianMoneyBlog.net
100% BRI, Honoring God with Our Investments!
Actively Managing Risk Since 1990!    

Tariff-Driven Inflation!

Check out my latest YouTube interview for a quick take on where things are headed.

Gold is trading near an all-time high of $3,250/oz as central banks continue to build reserves and inflation shows no signs of fading. I’ve added a 15% position in a physical gold ETF, anticipating further upside in the precious metals space.

Since April 4, 2025, we’ve seen some dramatic moves:

• 20-year Treasury Bonds have dropped 6.4%
• The U.S. dollar is down 2.9%
• The Swiss Franc is up 8.4%
• The Euro has gained 5.2%

These are significant moves, especially for currencies typically known for their stability. This may indicate that China is selling U.S. debt in response to the 145% Trump tariffs. If that’s the case, big money is shifting away from America, seeking new trade partners for their goods.

If these tariffs remain in place, prices in the U.S. could continue to rise, contributing to tariff-driven inflation. That means Trump may need to find ways to stimulate economic growth to offset rising costs.

The Federal Reserve is in a tough spot. If they lower rates or increase the money supply, it could worsen inflation. Between September 16, 2024, and January 13, 2025—just 81 market days—the Fed cut the Fed Funds Rate by 100bps (18.6%), but the 10-year Treasury yield rose 110bps (32%). That’s a clear message from the bond market: don’t fight inflation with rate cuts.

The bond market is massive, and it’s signaling concerns. With $9 trillion of the $37 trillion U.S. national debt due for refinancing this year, bond investors are demanding higher yields. Currently, interest payments on our debt are around $3 billion/day, but tariff revenue only brings in about $2 billion—a big gap to close. Maybe Trump will start looking at creative options like privatizing national parks to raise cash.

On the bright side, key tech items—smartphones, servers, chips, solar panels, and TVs—were exempted from the 145% Chinese tariffs. That could offer some relief for markets in the short term.

I’m watching for a Follow-Through Day (FTD), a 1% index gain on higher volume, at least four days after a rally attempt. While not a green light to go all in, it’s a strong signal that institutional investors may be returning to growth stocks. Once we get that, I’ll turn to my watch list (below) for potential buys.

Despite all the uncertainty, we’re on the verge of a great opportunity. When the time is right, I’ll be ready.      Grace & Peace to You and Your Loved Ones!

Watch List: ADMA, BOW, BRBR, EAT, EHC, GEV, IBN, LOAR, LRN, PAAS, PLMR, PLTR, ROL, RYAN, SFM, SKWD, TGTX, TKO, WGS.

Those who trust in the Lord will renew their strength; they will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not become weary; they will walk and not faint. Isaiah 40:31

If you know anyone who would like to receive these updates or invest with me, please Email or call me. 

Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676, ChristianMoneyBlog.net
100% BRI, Honoring God with Our Investments!
Actively Managing Risk Since 1990!    

Cash is King!

Check out this brief YouTube interview for my latest insights on the market!

Last week, I sold my gold (15%) and silver (10%) ETFs. The market wasn’t rewarding me for taking risk, so I moved to 100% cash and await a Follow-Through Day (FTD). An FTD typically occurs four days after a market bottom when the S&P 500 or NASDAQ jumps by at least 1.2% on higher volume. This is often a sign that institutional money is moving back in, which could signal the start of an uptrend. Institutions and hedge funds have the resources to hire top analysts, so I prefer to follow smart money as they create trends with their consistent buying. While it may take some time for bases and trends to form, I remain disciplined and patient.

The S&P 500 is down 13.4% YTD, and the NASDAQ has dropped 19.2%. I anticipate more capitulation selling this week, as investors trying to “buy the dip” may catch a falling knife. However, a substantial buying opportunity will emerge once the selling pressure subsides. We must wait for the dust to settle before re-entering the market.

The market is still grappling with the economic effects of the retaliatory tariff war, and it seems the Fed is considering a rate cut in June. However, the Fed knows this could spark inflation without encouraging growth, leading to stagflation. With limited tools to handle a stagflationary environment, we could be stuck in a high-risk, low-reward environment longer than anticipated.

Last Friday’s jobs report showed the economy added 228,000 new jobs, nearly double the expected 130,000. While that’s positive news, it might not be enough to ease concerns about the US’s financial strategy and its attempts to alter global trade. Meanwhile, Congress hasn’t yet passed a measure to keep the government running. Could we be facing a US debt downgrade soon?

If tariffs continue to escalate, we might witness a global economic restructuring as international trade is redefined. Interestingly, $100 in gold is more efficient than $100 in cash, as gold is a better way to transfer value physically—especially considering the US no longer issues bills larger than $100.

Trump’s “Liberation Day” of reciprocal tariffs ended up being an obliteration for many stocks, which were hammered by tariff uncertainty and widespread selling. Consumer confidence took a hit, and investor sentiment plummeted. The market could see more selling Monday as futures point to a 5% drop. Grace & Peace to You and Your Loved Ones!

Watch List: ADMA, ATGE, BOW, CALM, CBOE, CPRX, CVCO, EAT, HMY, IBN, LRN, MRX, OPCH, PHYS, PFSI, PLMR, PRMB, RGLD, SFM, TGTX.

So that being justified by his grace, we might become heirs according to the hope of eternal life. Titus 3:7

If you know anyone who would like to receive these updates or invest with me, please Email or call me.

Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676, ChristianMoneyBlog.net
100% BRI, Honoring God with Our Investments!
Actively Managing Risk Since 1990!   

Risk Off, Tariff Wars = Defense!

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ recently tested their resistance levels at the 200-day moving average (DMA) before returning to key support levels on Friday. If these support levels fail to hold, we may see capitulation selling, driving the market down another 3% to 8% as it tests the following levels of support. The S&P 500 is down 4.9% year-to-date (YTD), and the NASDAQ is down 10.3% YTD, suggesting that we may already be in a recession or bear market. The market hates uncertainty, and a tariff war that spirals into a recession is a real possibility. However, even in this challenging environment, there are opportunities for profit, such as in gold, silver, and ETFs that short the indexes.

I maintain a 25% risk-off position, with 15% in a gold ETF and 10% in a silver ETF. These ETFs are backed by physical gold and silver stored in vaults for every share issued. I view gold and silver as a hedge against the inflation caused by the Federal Reserve’s money printing, which erodes the purchasing power of fiat currency—money created from thin air and not backed by tangible assets.

Global central banks are stockpiling physical gold in preparation for a new, gold-backed currency. Gold is currently at an all-time high, trading at $3,086 per ounce, and I expect its price to climb even higher as the Fed continues to print more fiat money to finance the nation’s debt and deficits. Cryptocurrencies, like fiat currencies, are ultimately backed by nothing and created out of thin air, much like our nation’s trillions of dollars in debt. The Federal Reserve is creating inflation to devalue $37 trillion in debt, as it is impossible to repay that amount with today’s dollars. This is why they’ll continue to print more fiat currency, essentially repaying debt with devalued, cheaper dollars. Throughout history, every fiat currency has been destroyed by governments printing too much money too quickly, and the US dollar won’t be an exception. When paper money loses value, people turn to hard assets like gold. My highest conviction trade remains physical gold.

In the early 1900s, Charles Ponzi promised investors high returns through postal reply coupons but instead used new investor money to pay earlier investors. Do you think the Federal Reserve and Social Security system is essentially a giant Ponzi scheme, where profits are paid to earlier investors using funds from newer ones?

The stock market is increasingly focused on rising inflation and declining consumer sentiment, signaling concerns of a potential economic slowdown. In this environment, gold continues to shine. In 1913, the national debt was only 8% of GDP, but today, it has ballooned to 140%, growing by nearly 8% annually. According to Moody’s Analytics, the top 10% of Americans, mostly Baby Boomers, accounted for 36% of consumer spending 30 years ago, but that figure has now risen to 50%. In 2024, Baby Boomers increased their spending by 12%, while the other 90% of Americans spent less. This is a classic example of a K-shaped economy, where the wealthy prosper while everyone else struggles. Over the past four years under Biden, spending by the bottom 80% of Americans remained flat, while the rich increased spending by nearly a third. If Boomers reduce spending and increase savings due to uncertainty, we could see less economic growth and higher inflation, leading to stagflation. The Fed can’t bail us out of stagflation like it did in past crises, so it’s crucial to adopt a defensive strategy and prepare for what’s ahead.

Get to know the One who created you, and seek His Wisdom. Wishing you the best returns. Grace and peace!

Watch List: ADMA, AHR, ATGE, ATRO, CPK, CPRX, CRK, EHC, EVER, ETR, FMS, GOLD, HEI, OLLI, OPCH, PAGP, NEM, PAA, PHYS, PSLV, RGLD, RYAN, SE, SKWD, TGTX, TW, WELL.

The Lord gives Wisdom; from his mouth comes knowledge and understanding. Proverbs 2:6

If you know anyone who would like to receive these updates or invest in my Fund, please Email or call me.

Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676, ChristianMoneyBlog.net
100% BRI, Honoring God with Our Investments!
Actively Managing Risk Since 1990!
 

There is ongoing uncertainty regarding how tariffs will affect corporate earnings, leading to a generally bearish sentiment among investors (AAII 58%). The S&P 500 and NASDAQ are trading below their 200-day moving averages, indicating a higher-risk market environment. Effective risk management is critical for long-term financial success, and I am not willing to risk my savings on the belief that the market will always rise. My focus is on managing risk to avoid potentially life-altering losses. Ultimately, only God knows what the future holds, and I seek His guidance daily, trusting in His wisdom. When the market rewards me, I stay invested, but I hedge or sell when risks are high. I take full responsibility for my investments, knowing no one cares about my money more than I do. All my investable assets are in my Fund, and if you’d like me to manage your money as I do my own, consider investing in my Fund to share the same returns.

My portfolio comprises 15% in a gold ETF that holds physical gold, two gold stocks (5% each), and one software stock (1%), showing strong earnings and sales growth with solid charts. The once-popular “Mag 7” stocks have now become the “Lag 7” as large investors pull back. I believe the market will find a bottom once analysts gain more clarity on the effects of tariffs. Gold could serve as an early signal that inflation is rising while the economy slows (stagflation).

Fed Chairman Jay Powell has stated that tariff-induced price increases will be “transitory,” which could be an attempt to use tariffs as a scapegoat for inflation. Quantitative Tightening (QT) will slow from $25 billion to $5 billion monthly starting in April, with Powell forecasting two more rate cuts this year. The Fed has already reduced its COVID-era balance sheet by 25%, from $9 trillion in April 2022 to $6.7 trillion. Powell plans to allow mortgage bonds to “roll off” and purchase Treasuries, signaling a return to quantitative easing (QE). With $28 trillion of the $36 trillion national debt maturing in the next four years, the Fed is preparing to buy more Treasuries to support the bond market as global confidence in America’s ability to repay its debts wanes. As central banks grow more concerned about America’s high debt-to-GDP ratio (over 120%), they increasingly turn to gold, reflecting a broader loss of faith in fiat currencies. Gold is now at an all-time high ($3,025/oz), while the dollar has lost 98% of its purchasing power since Nixon took us off the gold standard in 1971. The Fed creates money and credit out of thin air, leading to inflation and rising prices that seldom decrease. Growth stocks with accelerating earnings and sales may offer some protection against inflation.

Fiat money, which relies on government taxation and debt repayment, is inherently fragile. History has shown that all fiat systems eventually collapse, and nations with the most gold will likely have the most trusted and resilient currencies. I believe the collapse of the fiat system is likely to occur within the next 10 years, so I prioritize risk management to protect my assets from potentially life-altering losses. Wishing you the best returns. Grace & Peace!

If anyone lacks wisdom, ask God, who gives to all generously and without reproach. James 1:5

If you know anyone who would like to receive these updates or invest in my Fund, please Email or call me.

Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676, ChristianMoneyBlog.net
100% BRI, Honoring God with Our Investments!
Actively Managing Risk Since 1990!
 

Friday’s rebound was driven mainly by Congress avoiding a government shutdown, which could have added more uncertainty to an already jittery market. However, tariff wars continue to weigh on the markets and persist until analysts can better gauge how reciprocal tariffs may affect future earnings. Investors are seeking safe havens, and gold has been a primary beneficiary. I hold a 15% position in a gold ETF, with the remainder in cash, waiting for a Follow Through Day (FTD).

FTDs can happen four days after a market bottom if a major index closes 1% higher on increased volume. An FTD signals that significant money is flowing back into the market, and I’ll be ready to buy stocks at their pivot points when that happens. Risk management is crucial during corrections. The S&P 500 dropped 10% from February 19, 2025, to March 13, 2025, officially entering a correction. The NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, and OTC indices experienced greater declines than the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is down 4% year-to-date, so it’s important to be cautious.

The AAII Bear indicator has been over 55% for three consecutive weeks, a pattern that has only been observed once before—on March 4, 2009, which marked a market low. Friday could have been a market bottom, but we need more time to confirm. Junk bonds are performing positively this year, suggesting this could be a minor correction, but risk management remains key.

Inflation is cooling, allowing the Fed to cut rates, potentially boosting stock prices. Hedge funds have been more leveraged long in U.S. equities than at any point in the last five years, with Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) almost 300% leveraged in stocks, which contributed to the 2024 rally. Traders were essentially “pulling forward” gains based on strong earnings expected in 2025. However, the “Deep Seek Black Swan” event has led companies to adjust their AI spending, and analysts are revising earnings expectations, signaling that we may be nearing more certainty than last week. The market struggles with uncertainty and is already discounting future earnings, which impacts stock prices. Stocks with great fundamentals without the technicals are not actionable; patience and discipline win. Grace & Peace!

Love each other, just as I (Jesus) have loved you. John 13:34

If you know anyone who would like to receive these updates or invest in my Fund, please Email or call me.

Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676, ChristianMoneyBlog.net
Actively Managing Risk Since 1990!