Risk Off, Tariff Wars = Defense!

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ recently tested their resistance levels at the 200-day moving average (DMA) before returning to key support levels on Friday. If these support levels fail to hold, we may see capitulation selling, driving the market down another 3% to 8% as it tests the following levels of support. The S&P 500 is down 4.9% year-to-date (YTD), and the NASDAQ is down 10.3% YTD, suggesting that we may already be in a recession or bear market. The market hates uncertainty, and a tariff war that spirals into a recession is a real possibility. However, even in this challenging environment, there are opportunities for profit, such as in gold, silver, and ETFs that short the indexes.

I maintain a 25% risk-off position, with 15% in a gold ETF and 10% in a silver ETF. These ETFs are backed by physical gold and silver stored in vaults for every share issued. I view gold and silver as a hedge against the inflation caused by the Federal Reserve’s money printing, which erodes the purchasing power of fiat currency—money created from thin air and not backed by tangible assets.

Global central banks are stockpiling physical gold in preparation for a new, gold-backed currency. Gold is currently at an all-time high, trading at $3,086 per ounce, and I expect its price to climb even higher as the Fed continues to print more fiat money to finance the nation’s debt and deficits. Cryptocurrencies, like fiat currencies, are ultimately backed by nothing and created out of thin air, much like our nation’s trillions of dollars in debt. The Federal Reserve is creating inflation to devalue $37 trillion in debt, as it is impossible to repay that amount with today’s dollars. This is why they’ll continue to print more fiat currency, essentially repaying debt with devalued, cheaper dollars. Throughout history, every fiat currency has been destroyed by governments printing too much money too quickly, and the US dollar won’t be an exception. When paper money loses value, people turn to hard assets like gold. My highest conviction trade remains physical gold.

In the early 1900s, Charles Ponzi promised investors high returns through postal reply coupons but instead used new investor money to pay earlier investors. Do you think the Federal Reserve and Social Security system is essentially a giant Ponzi scheme, where profits are paid to earlier investors using funds from newer ones?

The stock market is increasingly focused on rising inflation and declining consumer sentiment, signaling concerns of a potential economic slowdown. In this environment, gold continues to shine. In 1913, the national debt was only 8% of GDP, but today, it has ballooned to 140%, growing by nearly 8% annually. According to Moody’s Analytics, the top 10% of Americans, mostly Baby Boomers, accounted for 36% of consumer spending 30 years ago, but that figure has now risen to 50%. In 2024, Baby Boomers increased their spending by 12%, while the other 90% of Americans spent less. This is a classic example of a K-shaped economy, where the wealthy prosper while everyone else struggles. Over the past four years under Biden, spending by the bottom 80% of Americans remained flat, while the rich increased spending by nearly a third. If Boomers reduce spending and increase savings due to uncertainty, we could see less economic growth and higher inflation, leading to stagflation. The Fed can’t bail us out of stagflation like it did in past crises, so it’s crucial to adopt a defensive strategy and prepare for what’s ahead.

Get to know the One who created you, and seek His Wisdom. Wishing you the best returns. Grace and peace!

Watch List: ADMA, AHR, ATGE, ATRO, CPK, CPRX, CRK, EHC, EVER, ETR, FMS, GOLD, HEI, OLLI, OPCH, PAGP, NEM, PAA, PHYS, PSLV, RGLD, RYAN, SE, SKWD, TGTX, TW, WELL.

The Lord gives Wisdom; from his mouth comes knowledge and understanding. Proverbs 2:6

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Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676, ChristianMoneyBlog.net
100% BRI, Honoring God with Our Investments!
Actively Managing Risk Since 1990!
 

There is ongoing uncertainty regarding how tariffs will affect corporate earnings, leading to a generally bearish sentiment among investors (AAII 58%). The S&P 500 and NASDAQ are trading below their 200-day moving averages, indicating a higher-risk market environment. Effective risk management is critical for long-term financial success, and I am not willing to risk my savings on the belief that the market will always rise. My focus is on managing risk to avoid potentially life-altering losses. Ultimately, only God knows what the future holds, and I seek His guidance daily, trusting in His wisdom. When the market rewards me, I stay invested, but I hedge or sell when risks are high. I take full responsibility for my investments, knowing no one cares about my money more than I do. All my investable assets are in my Fund, and if you’d like me to manage your money as I do my own, consider investing in my Fund to share the same returns.

My portfolio comprises 15% in a gold ETF that holds physical gold, two gold stocks (5% each), and one software stock (1%), showing strong earnings and sales growth with solid charts. The once-popular “Mag 7” stocks have now become the “Lag 7” as large investors pull back. I believe the market will find a bottom once analysts gain more clarity on the effects of tariffs. Gold could serve as an early signal that inflation is rising while the economy slows (stagflation).

Fed Chairman Jay Powell has stated that tariff-induced price increases will be “transitory,” which could be an attempt to use tariffs as a scapegoat for inflation. Quantitative Tightening (QT) will slow from $25 billion to $5 billion monthly starting in April, with Powell forecasting two more rate cuts this year. The Fed has already reduced its COVID-era balance sheet by 25%, from $9 trillion in April 2022 to $6.7 trillion. Powell plans to allow mortgage bonds to “roll off” and purchase Treasuries, signaling a return to quantitative easing (QE). With $28 trillion of the $36 trillion national debt maturing in the next four years, the Fed is preparing to buy more Treasuries to support the bond market as global confidence in America’s ability to repay its debts wanes. As central banks grow more concerned about America’s high debt-to-GDP ratio (over 120%), they increasingly turn to gold, reflecting a broader loss of faith in fiat currencies. Gold is now at an all-time high ($3,025/oz), while the dollar has lost 98% of its purchasing power since Nixon took us off the gold standard in 1971. The Fed creates money and credit out of thin air, leading to inflation and rising prices that seldom decrease. Growth stocks with accelerating earnings and sales may offer some protection against inflation.

Fiat money, which relies on government taxation and debt repayment, is inherently fragile. History has shown that all fiat systems eventually collapse, and nations with the most gold will likely have the most trusted and resilient currencies. I believe the collapse of the fiat system is likely to occur within the next 10 years, so I prioritize risk management to protect my assets from potentially life-altering losses. Wishing you the best returns. Grace & Peace!

If anyone lacks wisdom, ask God, who gives to all generously and without reproach. James 1:5

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Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676, ChristianMoneyBlog.net
100% BRI, Honoring God with Our Investments!
Actively Managing Risk Since 1990!
 

Friday’s rebound was driven mainly by Congress avoiding a government shutdown, which could have added more uncertainty to an already jittery market. However, tariff wars continue to weigh on the markets and persist until analysts can better gauge how reciprocal tariffs may affect future earnings. Investors are seeking safe havens, and gold has been a primary beneficiary. I hold a 15% position in a gold ETF, with the remainder in cash, waiting for a Follow Through Day (FTD).

FTDs can happen four days after a market bottom if a major index closes 1% higher on increased volume. An FTD signals that significant money is flowing back into the market, and I’ll be ready to buy stocks at their pivot points when that happens. Risk management is crucial during corrections. The S&P 500 dropped 10% from February 19, 2025, to March 13, 2025, officially entering a correction. The NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, and OTC indices experienced greater declines than the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is down 4% year-to-date, so it’s important to be cautious.

The AAII Bear indicator has been over 55% for three consecutive weeks, a pattern that has only been observed once before—on March 4, 2009, which marked a market low. Friday could have been a market bottom, but we need more time to confirm. Junk bonds are performing positively this year, suggesting this could be a minor correction, but risk management remains key.

Inflation is cooling, allowing the Fed to cut rates, potentially boosting stock prices. Hedge funds have been more leveraged long in U.S. equities than at any point in the last five years, with Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) almost 300% leveraged in stocks, which contributed to the 2024 rally. Traders were essentially “pulling forward” gains based on strong earnings expected in 2025. However, the “Deep Seek Black Swan” event has led companies to adjust their AI spending, and analysts are revising earnings expectations, signaling that we may be nearing more certainty than last week. The market struggles with uncertainty and is already discounting future earnings, which impacts stock prices. Stocks with great fundamentals without the technicals are not actionable; patience and discipline win. Grace & Peace!

Love each other, just as I (Jesus) have loved you. John 13:34

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Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676, ChristianMoneyBlog.net
Actively Managing Risk Since 1990!

The S&P 500 fell below its 200-day moving average (DMA) but bounced back above it on Friday, signaling support from institutional investors. The last two times the index tested this level were August 9, 2024, and November 3, 2023. It’s crucial that the S&P holds this key support level, or the market could face more significant challenges. Uncertainty is the market’s enemy, and escalating trade wars and tariffs could lead to slower growth and rising inflation—potentially resulting in stagflation. Tariffs will likely drive up costs across all goods and services, further fueling inflation expectations, which could ultimately hurt corporate earnings. Playing defense may be the best strategy to minimize losses in a bear market.

Many stock charts have broken down, and they will take time to repair. According to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD), we need a Follow Through Day (FTD) before considering new buys. An FTD occurs when the market rallies more than 1% on higher volume, four days after an up day, making Wednesday the earliest potential day to buy. However, I don’t see many stocks in favorable buying zones besides defensive stocks, which isn’t a bullish sign. I moved to all-cash (defensive) on February 21, 2025, and will wait for an FTD before re-entering the market.

On the global stage, Trump recently criticized Europe and Germany for not investing enough in defense and suggested the U.S. might pull out of NATO, leaving Europe to fend for itself. The European Central Bank (ECB) can’t monetize debt through asset purchases while inflation remains above target. Germany will likely need to tap into global credit markets, increasing competition for U.S. Treasuries, especially now that it may need to offer higher yields to attract investors. This dynamic caused a 3.5% drop in the dollar last week, as German yields surged due to increased government borrowing to finance military support for Ukraine. The higher yields on German bonds also led the Euro to rise 4.4% as investors sought higher returns in European currencies.

On Friday, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP growth estimate plummeted from 2.3% to a negative 1.5%, signaling the possibility of a recession that may have begun weeks before Trump took office. Consumer spending is declining, and the savings rate is increasing. In times like this, the risk isn’t worth the potential reward, so it’s better to step aside, wait for a solid market bottom, and watch for stocks to break out from sound bases.

Sin will have no dominion over you, since you are not under law but under grace. Romans 6:14

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Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676  Dexter@ChristianMoneyBlog.net
Active Risk Management, CANSLIM Investing
ChristianMoneyBlog.net

Last week, the NASDAQ dropped 3.5%, bouncing off its 200-day moving average (DMA), which serves as key institutional support. This marks the third test of significant support levels since March 2023, so we must maintain institutional demand at these levels. Each time the market tests these key support zones (like the 50 and 200dma), the likelihood of them being held decreases. Institutional investors (hedge funds, pensions, sovereign wealth funds) drive our trends, and the long-term trend is still positive. However, these support levels must hold, or we could be headed for a recession or bear market.

There’s been an uptick in down days on above-average volume, signaling heavy selling from big-money investors. Knowing when to “hold em or fold em” is essential for meeting long-term financial goals. When the market isn’t rewarding risk, I stick to my rules, step aside, and wait for stocks to break out of sound base pattern price pivots. Smart money looks ahead six to twelve months and positions itself accordingly. The market is adjusting expectations for future stock profits in light of the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico (and 10% on China) set to impact Tuesday, March 4, 2025. The market doesn’t like uncertainty, so stocks are being sold off in anticipation of how these tariffs might affect corporate profits. The return of open, tariff-free international trade could push the market higher out of this trading range, but that is unlikely.

Gold has only dipped about 3% from its all-time highs, with investors flocking to it as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. The U.S. Treasury has been issuing more short-term T-bills to service our national debt rather than long-term bonds, which has helped reduce mortgage rates, potentially boosting the housing market. Falling rates might also be a reaction to fears of a tariff-induced recession. Oil prices have been sliding since mid-January, possibly due to recession worries, likely leading to reduced oil demand. Consumer confidence dropped last week as expectations for slower economic activity grew. NVIDIA posted solid earnings, but the stock still fell below its 50-dma. Many growth stocks face technical breakdowns and need time to recover, so I’m staying patient and waiting for better setups.

The market’s primary concern is uncertainty, and this Friday’s job report could clarify whether we stay in a trading range or heading into a bear market. Friday saw many oversold stocks showing “undercut and rally” patterns, a sign of potential accumulation. That would be a bullish signal if these recent lows hold. However, if these levels break down with increased volume, I will adopt a more bearish stance and look for stocks or ETFs to short.

The AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) survey shows a record-high 60.6% bearish sentiment, and the CNN Fear/Greed index indicates extreme fear. These are often viewed as contrarian signals, suggesting retail investors have already capitulated, which could mean the worst is over. Tariffs on Tuesday could push us into a recession/bear market, or the market could ignore it and move higher. May God’s grace and peace bless you!

As each has received a gift, use it to serve one another as good stewards of God’s grace. 1 Peter 4:10

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Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676  Dexter@ChristianMoneyBlog.net
Active Risk Management, CANSLIM Investing
ChristianMoneyBlog.net

Caution!

On Friday, the S&P 500 index fell by 1.71%, reaching its 50-day moving average support level on above-average trading volume, indicating potential distribution. The NASDAQ index experienced a 2.2% decline and failed to secure institutional support, dipping below its critical 50-day moving average. The Russell 2000 index, representing small-cap stocks, is trading beneath its 200-day moving average, while mid-cap stocks barely hold above this level. Factors contributing to this downturn may include options expiration, weak consumer demand forecasts from Walmart, and Microsoft’s cancellation of AI contracts, which included penalties. Many leading growth stocks suffered significant losses, resulting in numerous damaged charts requiring time to recover. A rebound is anticipated on Monday; however, further selling could push the S&P 500 down an additional 3.5% before it finds its next support level. High-volume declines are warning signs that often precede bear markets. Should the indexes consistently trade below their 50-day moving averages, I will explore short-selling opportunities.

Since January 10th, 10-year Treasury yields have declined, approaching the 4% support level, signaling economic weakness. The dollar began to weaken following the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause rate cuts on December 18th. Crude oil prices have dropped to around $65 due to increased supply, potentially coupled with weak demand. Consumer discretionary stocks (XLY) have fallen below their 50-day moving averages on significant volume, while consumer staples (XLP) have rallied, reflecting a shift in sentiment and a slowing economy. Homebuilders (XHB), often viewed as an economic indicator, peaked weeks ago. Although gold has remained stable near all-time highs, gold stocks faced substantial losses on Friday. Regional banks (KRE) have also fallen below their 50-day moving averages on high volume, indicating weak consumer loan demand under financial strain. While China appears stable, trust in a communist government is questionable. Reduced government spending constitutes one-third of GDP and could hinder economic growth. The favorable economic conditions are diminishing; prices remain high, inflation persists, and signs of economic slowdown may lead us toward stagflation, which is concerning.

Wednesday is judgment day for NVDA as it releases earnings for its Blackwell chip demand after the Deep Seek China news of a more efficient AI program. The indexes have been in a trading range since December 18^th, so NVDA’s earnings and guidance could be a game changer for AI and economic growth. I am short-term bearish but remain open-minded, seeking to make money and avoid life-changing losses. May God’s Grace & Peace Bless You!

Blessed is the one who perseveres under trial because, having stood the test, that person will receive the crown of life that the Lord has promised to those who love him. James 1:12

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Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676  Dexter@ChristianMoneyBlog.net
Active Risk Management, CANSLIM Investing
ChristianMoneyBlog.net