The S&P 500 and NASDAQ are approaching historical peaks, and I anticipate they will break out and resume their uptrends after basing (going sideways) since December. The market has absorbed the negative news regarding interest rates, inflation, tariffs, and geopolitical conflicts, which now appears poised for further gains; thus, we are positioned to participate in the next phase of this bull market. Our portfolio comprises a well-diversified selection of approximately 27 stocks, with significant allocations in the gold, software, and medical sectors. I have been strategically limiting losses to around 5% of our cost basis while taking profits near 10%, yielding favorable outcomes. Artificial intelligence remains the prevailing theme, and numerous stocks are adjusting to the transformative efficiency results from Deep Seek, indicating that it may take some time for the market to realign with the new leaders. I plan to follow the big money by looking for stocks advancing on above-average volume.

Gold is currently experiencing institutional accumulation as it approaches $3,900 per ounce, supported by above-average trading volume. Recently, Trump issued an Executive Order (EO) instructing the Treasury to devise a plan within 90 days for establishing a sovereign wealth fund (SWF). This EO can potentially prompt the United States to reassess its reported gold reserves from $45 to $3,900, shoring up its balance sheet. It is possible that some of this gold has been loaned out (hypothecated) to other countries, and the creation of a SWF could necessitate the re-hypothecation of gold back to Fort Knox. This repatriation of gold to its rightful owner (the US) may account for some of the recent surge in gold prices to record levels.

The Chinese government now permits insurance companies and citizens to purchase gold for their accounts. Traditionally, gold has served as a reliable store of value and a safeguard against inflation. Gold and the stock market are likely headed higher! May God’s Grace & Peace Bless You!

Grace was given to each of us according to the measure of Christ’s gift. Ephesians 4:7

If you know anyone who would like to receive these Updates or invest in my Fund, please Email or call me.

Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676  Dexter@ChristianMoneyBlog.net
Active Risk Management, CANSLIM Investing
ChristianMoneyBlog.net

Watch My Latest Interview, Dexter Lyons Investing with Integrity on YouTube

Digestion/Distribution in a Bull Market!

The current phase of digestion and distribution in a bull market is noteworthy. Growth stocks exhibiting accelerating earnings and sales are experiencing institutional accumulation; however, the overall market weight impedes their progress. Despite this, we remain in a bull market, with leading growth stocks poised to elevate the indexes in the upcoming week. The indexes have been consolidating recent gains, moving sideways (above the 50-day moving average) within a trading range close to all-time highs. The market is recovering from the shock of the Federal Reserve’s unexpected pause in rate cuts on December 18, during which we observed approximately six distribution days (defined as a price decline exceeding 1% on increased volume) on the NASDAQ and three on the S&P 500. The market experienced a sell-off on Friday due to potential tariff news anticipated over the weekend; however, futures show positive movement on Sunday night, suggesting a potentially favorable week ahead.

In December, consumer credit surged to over $40 billion, marking the largest increase on record, indicating that consumers continue to spend despite rising prices. The anticipated consumer debt was around $16 billion, which was a surprise, particularly given that individuals face interest rates of approximately 23% on their credit card debt. The Federal Reserve has contributed to inflation by increasing the money supply and extending credit. If the Fed were genuinely combating inflation, we would expect a contraction in credit; however, this is not the case. The Fed’s policies remain overly accommodative, raising concerns about the potential for stagflation, characterized by a slowing economy coupled with rising inflation. The absence of a contingency plan from the Fed to address stagflation could lead to a significant downturn in the stock market, raising serious concerns for the future.

Gold is a safeguard against inflation and is trading close to its historical peak of around $2,873 per ounce. Central banks are adding to their gold reserves in response to the decline in purchasing power of fiat currencies, which are issued without tangible backing. Notably, one ounce of gold still has the purchasing power to buy the same amount of bread as 2,000 years ago when Jesus walked the earth. Gold is acknowledged as a reliable store of value and may function as a medium of exchange in critical situations. Gold is experiencing a bull market and represents my largest investment allocation.

Japanese 10-year treasury yields are experiencing an upward trend, currently yielding 1.3%, which marks a 15-year peak. Concurrently, inflation in Japan is approximately 3.6%, and the debt-to-GDP ratio hovers around 250%. The increase in yields is attributed to rising inflation expectations in Japan, mirroring trends observed in the United States. This situation may compel Japan to liquidate US Treasuries to stabilize the yen. Hedge funds, utilizing significant leverage (up to 100:1), have borrowed yen at rates near 25 basis points, invested in higher-yielding Treasuries through the yen carry trade, and have benefited from substantial spreads for many years. However, should Japanese yields escalate too quickly, the yen carry trade could unwind abruptly. Such a rapid unwinding could disrupt global stock markets if there is a significant sell-off of US Treasuries. Trump is aware of the developments in Japan and is likely to take measures to avert a potential crash in the stock and bond markets during his administration.

Bottom line: We remain in a bull market, with the indexes likely to break free from this period of sideways trading and reach new all-time highs. This week, Powell will testify before Congress, and we will also receive the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data. A recent report indicates that DeepSeek has invested over $1 billion in its computer cluster. The frequently cited figure of $6 million is quite misleading, as it does not account for capital expenditures (CAPEX) and research and development (R&D), and it primarily reflects the cost of the final training run. Trump is currently “studying” the potential for a strategic Bitcoin reserve, which can be interpreted as an indication that it is unlikely to materialize. Disciplined risk management and appropriate position sizing are crucial for achieving long-term success. Grace & Peace!

The grace of God has appeared, bringing salvation to all people. Titus 2:11

If you know anyone who would like to receive these Updates or invest in my Fund, please Email or call me.

Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676  Dexter@ChristianMoneyBlog.net
Active Risk Management, CANSLIM Investing
ChristianMoneyBlog.net

Watch My Latest Interview, Dexter Lyons Investing with Integrity on YouTube

Deep Seek & Tariffs!

Last Monday, the NASDAQ 100 (NAZ) and S&P 500 (SPX) indexes dropped below their 50-day moving averages on above-average volume following the Deep Seek news. Deep Seek, a Chinese startup, introduced a new AI model that uses cheaper chips and less data, resulting in lower heat production and increased efficiency compared to current models. If their claims hold up, it could disrupt many AI companies. Despite the sharp drop, many of the stocks that were hit hardest on Monday have since rebounded, which is encouraging. Some of my sell-stops were triggered, so I repositioned into medical and software stocks, breaking out of solid bases. There are still a lot of stocks under institutional accumulation, which leads me to believe the bull market may not be over just yet. However, I’m cautious due to about seven distribution days (a 1% decline on above-average volume), which is a concern.

On Friday afternoon, Trump announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, causing the market to reverse course and close lower on significant volume. As I write this on Sunday night, futures indicate a rough opening on Monday.

The Fed hinted that it was nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle on December 18. The indexes slipped below their 50-day moving averages shortly after, marking the first of seven distribution days. Since then, the NAZ has struggled but found support at its July 11 peak. I expect the NAZ to hold above its 50-day moving average, but further correction could be in the cards if it fails. The market seemed stable after the Fed held rates steady on Wednesday, but the Trump tariff news shifted the momentum.

I believe Trump is an effective negotiator working in America’s best interest, and ultimately, his policies will benefit the country. I don’t argue with the market—the price is always right. My health and peace of mind are far more important than any stock. If a stock doesn’t perform as expected, I’ll stick to my loss-cutting rules and live to trade another day. In the long run, we win!

Bottom Line: The bulls are still in control, but that could change. I’ll continue following the trends created by big money while sticking to my rules to ensure I can keep investing. Risk management and position sizing are key to long-term success. Grace & Peace!

May the God of hope fill you with all joy and peace in believing, so that by the power of the Holy Spirit you may abound in hope. Romans 15:13

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Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676  Dexter@ChristianMoneyBlog.net
Active Risk Management, CANSLIM Investing
ChristianMoneyBlog.net

Watch My Latest Interview, Dexter Lyons Investing with Integrity on YouTube

Digesting Gains? The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indexes have rallied about 5% in just 7 days and are approaching all-time highs. A short digestion period (~3%) of these recent over-bought gains is needed before the uptrend resumes. The market is optimistic about Trump’s policies—lower taxes, less regulation, and smaller government—which bode well for growth. When a company shows strong earnings and sales growth, I look for a pivot point to buy the stock, typically when it breaks out of a base on above-average volume. These base breakouts have been working in this bull market, and I expect them to continue. Historically, growth stocks have outpaced both inflation and taxes.

Treasury Bonds and the Dollar The 20-year Treasury Bonds appear to have hit a short-term bottom, rallying more than 2% since 1/14/25, causing yields to drop. Rising rates have been a headwind for the market. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is weakening, breaking its uptrend. A declining dollar should benefit international stocks as they convert overseas profits into dollars. A weaker dollar is also favorable for gold, trading near all-time highs and showing a low-volatility uptrend. Silver, in contrast, is not being heavily accumulated by central banks, so I focus more on gold. Gold stocks are not yet at all-time highs, and they have plenty of room to catch up, so gold remains the better choice. Oil prices are declining as the “drill, baby, drill” agenda takes effect. I expect oil to drop from $75 to around $65 and consolidate for a while. Consumer staple stocks are in a downtrend, which reduces the likelihood of an imminent recession.

Fed Meeting and Market Outlook The Fed’s meeting on Wednesday could significantly impact the market. The last time the Fed met on 12/18/25, the market dropped about 3% on high volume, as the Fed mentioned they may be nearing the end of the rate reduction cycle. Markets typically react positively to rate cuts and negatively to rate hikes. We could hear dovish comments about rate cuts if the Fed views recent cooling inflation (PPI and CPI) as a positive sign. However, if they adopt a hawkish stance and raise rates, we could see a 10% correction. Chairman Jay Powell will likely avoid taking actions that harm Trump’s agenda.

Global Economic Factors Japan raised rates last week to combat inflation, which could hurt our Treasury Bonds since Japan is our second-largest creditor after the Fed. If higher rates in Japan slow down their economy too quickly, it could force Japan to sell U.S. bonds, driving yields higher and potentially harming our stock market and economy. However, I trust Trump will prioritize America’s interests and negotiate a favorable deal with Japan.

Bottom Line: The bull market is alive and well, with AI leading the charge and Trump focusing on putting America first. I am bullish but with a slight hedge (ETF shorting NASDAQ 100). Earnings are exceeding expectations, which is lifting many sectors. If I’m wrong, I will quickly adjust my positions to minimize risk, as risk management and position sizing are crucial for long-term success.

“It is by Grace you have been saved, through faith, and this is not from yourselves; it is the gift of God, not by works, so that no one can boast.” Ephesians 2:8-9  

If you know anyone who would like to receive these Updates or invest in my Fund, please Email or call me.

Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676  Dexter@ChristianMoneyBlog.net
Active Risk Management, CANSLIM Investing
www.ChristianMoneyBlog.net

The Trump Effect: Risk On!
The NASDAQ 100 (tech stocks) has absorbed the election rally, factoring in the Fed’s decision to pause rate cuts on 12/18/24. After three waves of selling, the index hit a low on 1/13/25 before surging past its 50-day moving average (DMA) on solid, above-average volume last Friday. The rally was sparked by cooler CPI data Wednesday, driving the index toward its downtrend resistance line. I expect the NASDAQ 100 to break through this resistance and rise about 3% higher; at this point, a new catalyst will be necessary to sustain the bull market trend.

With Trump assuming office on Monday, I expect him to follow through on promises to cut taxes and reduce regulations, which should positively impact corporate earnings and sales. The price and volume charts will reflect stocks benefiting from Trump’s agenda. AI-related stocks will maintain strong momentum, and companies with growing earnings and sales will likely capture investor attention.

Meanwhile, 20-year Treasury bonds have fallen to the 4/25/24 support line, pushing yields lower and allowing the S&P 500 to climb roughly 3% since 1/14/25. The junk bond index trades above its 50-DMA, signaling increased risk appetite and confirming a “risk-on” environment. Natural gas has surged nearly 50% since the election, driven by growing energy needs from AI data centers. The retail home furnishings industry has risen over 70%, indicating future economic growth. Bitcoin is approaching its all-time high, benefiting from expectations of Trump’s support. The energy sector has gained about 14% over the past 18 trading days, buoyed by a “drill baby drill” agenda. Regional banks are nearing their 50-DMA resistance, supported by a favorable yield curve, which helps banks profit from spread differences. Gold is regaining focus, trading above its 50-DMA as a hedge against inflation. Utilities are also above their 50-DMA, driven by higher energy demand from expanding AI data centers. The dollar is stable, with the market appearing content. Healthcare stocks remain weak due to the potential negative impacts of “Make America Healthy Again” regulations. China’s economy continues to weaken under communist rule, and consumer staples are trending lower while discretionary stocks are rising, signaling strong consumer spending and an optimistic outlook for corporate profits.

Bottom Line: Stocks with growing earnings and sales are under institutional accumulation, driving indexes higher. The market has adopted a “risk-on” attitude, expecting the Trump administration to boost overall performance. I remain highly bullish, anticipating indexes to break through to new highs and maintain their upward momentum. If I’m wrong, I will adjust quickly to avoid substantial losses, as risk management and position sizing are crucial to long-term financial success.

For where your treasure is, there your heart will be also. Matthew 6:21

If you know anyone who would like to receive these Updates or invest in my Mutual Fund, please Email or call me.

Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676  Dexter@ChristianMoneyBlog.net
Active (BRI) Risk Management, CANSLIM Investing
ChristianMoneyBlog.net

Digesting/Correcting! 

All major indexes, including junk bonds, are trading below their 50-day moving averages (DMA), signaling an increased risk environment. Friday’s employment report exceeded expectations, causing stock indexes to gap lower and yields to spike as inflation concerns resurfaced. The U.S. dollar reached an all-time high as foreign investors converted their currencies to purchase our higher-yielding Treasuries.

20-year Treasury bonds are nearing the 4/25/24 low, which may act as support. This week, we’ll see key inflation data with the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, making this a pivotal week. I expect that bonds will hold support and stocks will experience a rally. However, if I’m wrong, I plan to hedge or sell positions to stay aligned with the market trend.

Leading stocks with accelerating earnings and sales are performing well, and I expect them to continue their positive momentum—unless higher inflation pushes us into a recession. Inflation is often driven by excessive money printing. For context, Obama spent $8.6 trillion over eight years, and Biden spent $8.5 trillion in just four years, which explains the market’s concern about the pace of price increases. While inflation has fallen from 9% to 3%, wage growth has not kept up with rising prices. We may be on the brink of a recession, but no one wants to lose their job or face slow growth and high food prices (stagflation).

The market had anticipated the Fed would lower rates on 9/18/24, and since then, the Fed Funds Target Rate has dropped over 18%, while 20-year Treasury bond yields have risen more than 25%. Typically, the stock market rises when the Fed lowers rates, and longer-term rates decline. This time, however, the market seems to be signaling that the Fed was politically motivated (lowering rates before an election to influence votes) and made a mistake by cutting rates, which added to inflationary pressures.

Gold is trading above its 50-DMA, acting as both an inflation hedge and a potential haven as stocks face headwinds. International stocks are underperforming due to the stronger dollar, as overseas earnings lose value when converted back into U.S. dollars. The AI sector remains strong, with major players investing heavily to capitalize on the AI boom. The revolution in AI is still in its early stages, presenting ample opportunities. I am focused on companies benefiting from AI, particularly those with accelerating earnings and sales, as that’s where the greatest profit potential lies.

Bottom Line: Stocks are digesting and correcting, but if bond prices hold their support levels (less than 1% lower), we could see a tailwind for stocks by the end of the week. Mortgage rates are above 7%, credit card rates are near 25%, and the Commodity Price Index (CRB) is at a 14-year high, up 28% in the past seven months. My best guess is that bond yields will decline, and stock prices will rise this week. If I’m wrong, I’ll act quickly to avoid significant losses for myself and my shareholders. Grace and Peace to Everyone!

Grace and peace be multiplied unto you through the knowledge of God and of Jesus our Lord. 2 Peter 1:2

If you know anyone who would like to receive these Updates or invest in my Mutual Fund, please Email or call me.

Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676  Dexter@ChristianMoneyBlog.net
Active (BRI) Risk Management, CANSLIM Investing
ChristianMoneyBlog.net