Friday’s rebound was driven mainly by Congress avoiding a government shutdown, which could have added more uncertainty to an already jittery market. However, tariff wars continue to weigh on the markets and persist until analysts can better gauge how reciprocal tariffs may affect future earnings. Investors are seeking safe havens, and gold has been a primary beneficiary. I hold a 15% position in a gold ETF, with the remainder in cash, waiting for a Follow Through Day (FTD).
FTDs can happen four days after a market bottom if a major index closes 1% higher on increased volume. An FTD signals that significant money is flowing back into the market, and I’ll be ready to buy stocks at their pivot points when that happens. Risk management is crucial during corrections. The S&P 500 dropped 10% from February 19, 2025, to March 13, 2025, officially entering a correction. The NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, and OTC indices experienced greater declines than the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is down 4% year-to-date, so it’s important to be cautious.
The AAII Bear indicator has been over 55% for three consecutive weeks, a pattern that has only been observed once before—on March 4, 2009, which marked a market low. Friday could have been a market bottom, but we need more time to confirm. Junk bonds are performing positively this year, suggesting this could be a minor correction, but risk management remains key.
Inflation is cooling, allowing the Fed to cut rates, potentially boosting stock prices. Hedge funds have been more leveraged long in U.S. equities than at any point in the last five years, with Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) almost 300% leveraged in stocks, which contributed to the 2024 rally. Traders were essentially “pulling forward” gains based on strong earnings expected in 2025. However, the “Deep Seek Black Swan” event has led companies to adjust their AI spending, and analysts are revising earnings expectations, signaling that we may be nearing more certainty than last week. The market struggles with uncertainty and is already discounting future earnings, which impacts stock prices. Stocks with great fundamentals without the technicals are not actionable; patience and discipline win. Grace & Peace!
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Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676, ChristianMoneyBlog.net
Actively Managing Risk Since 1990!