Caution!
On Friday, the S&P 500 index fell by 1.71%, reaching its 50-day moving average support level on above-average trading volume, indicating potential distribution. The NASDAQ index experienced a 2.2% decline and failed to secure institutional support, dipping below its critical 50-day moving average. The Russell 2000 index, representing small-cap stocks, is trading beneath its 200-day moving average, while mid-cap stocks barely hold above this level. Factors contributing to this downturn may include options expiration, weak consumer demand forecasts from Walmart, and Microsoft’s cancellation of AI contracts, which included penalties. Many leading growth stocks suffered significant losses, resulting in numerous damaged charts requiring time to recover. A rebound is anticipated on Monday; however, further selling could push the S&P 500 down an additional 3.5% before it finds its next support level. High-volume declines are warning signs that often precede bear markets. Should the indexes consistently trade below their 50-day moving averages, I will explore short-selling opportunities.
Since January 10th, 10-year Treasury yields have declined, approaching the 4% support level, signaling economic weakness. The dollar began to weaken following the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause rate cuts on December 18th. Crude oil prices have dropped to around $65 due to increased supply, potentially coupled with weak demand. Consumer discretionary stocks (XLY) have fallen below their 50-day moving averages on significant volume, while consumer staples (XLP) have rallied, reflecting a shift in sentiment and a slowing economy. Homebuilders (XHB), often viewed as an economic indicator, peaked weeks ago. Although gold has remained stable near all-time highs, gold stocks faced substantial losses on Friday. Regional banks (KRE) have also fallen below their 50-day moving averages on high volume, indicating weak consumer loan demand under financial strain. While China appears stable, trust in a communist government is questionable. Reduced government spending constitutes one-third of GDP and could hinder economic growth. The favorable economic conditions are diminishing; prices remain high, inflation persists, and signs of economic slowdown may lead us toward stagflation, which is concerning.
Wednesday is judgment day for NVDA as it releases earnings for its Blackwell chip demand after the Deep Seek China news of a more efficient AI program. The indexes have been in a trading range since December 18th, so NVDA’s earnings and guidance could be a game changer for AI and economic growth. I am short-term bearish but remain open-minded, seeking to make money and avoid life-changing losses. May God’s Grace & Peace Bless You!
Blessed is the one who perseveres under trial because, having stood the test, that person will receive the crown of life that the Lord has promised to those who love him. James 1:12
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Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676 Dexter@ChristianMoneyBlog.net
Active Risk Management, CANSLIM Investing
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