Santa Rally?
The major indexes are slightly extended, but there seems to be room for further growth. AI growth stocks are still leading the bull market, with the best performers gapping higher post-earnings on above-average volume. Stocks that gap higher and maintain their momentum signal that institutional money is entering, and they’re willing to pay a premium for the earnings growth they expect. Stock prices rise when investors price in future earnings expectations. Investors may accept higher price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples for stocks with higher anticipated growth to stay ahead of inflation and taxes. I assess a stock’s P/E ratio against its 5-year range to determine if it’s overpriced. Most growth stocks aren’t near the high P/E levels seen in 2021, which suggests there is still potential for growth in this new AI-driven bull market.
The market expects the Federal Reserve to reduce rates by 25bps this Wednesday, and I expect Jay Powell to deliver on this, avoiding any unwelcome surprises before Christmas. The 20-year long-term Treasury bond market has dropped around 5% since 12/6/24, causing yields to rise ahead of the expected Fed rate cut. This could indicate that inflation remains stubbornly high, signaling that the Fed may not lower rates. However, a politically driven Fed may act differently and lower rates anyway.
Housing stocks have fallen over 10% since 10/16/24, as rising mortgage rates (linked to Treasury yields) make homeownership more difficult for buyers. Many turn to rent as home buyers are priced out due to high mortgage rates. If home builders are not constructing new homes, it impacts sales of furniture and other goods associated with home buying. If this “multiplier effect” slows down, it could slow the broader economy, which is what investors are trying to anticipate when forecasting future earnings. The bond market is nearing a bottom, and yields may soon fall, which could help revive the housing market. This could be a critical week, with the possibility of a Santa Rally to finish the year strong!
Bottom Line: Issachar manages risk to minimize significant losses and capture most of the uptrend. The AI revolution is real, and we are only beginning to see how much potential lies ahead. I expect a Santa Rally at the end of the year. God is Good, and He Loves You! Merry Christmas!
Give thanks to the LORD, for He is good, for His steadfast love endures forever! Psalm 107:1