Patience, Discipline & Risk Management! (Actively Managed 100% BRI Fund)
The Issachar Fund still holds about 3% in an inverse bond fund ETF and 97% in a high-yielding short-term fixed-income ETF! The NASDAQ and S&P 500 indexes are again trading below their respective 50-day moving averages, indicating more investors are selling than buying. Therefore, risk remains elevated as the indexes retreat in defined downtrends. The dominant NASDAQ index’s next critical test of support is about 3% lower, and I expect it to hold unless the war in Israel escalates. If America’s support for Israel causes other countries to join the war, I expect stocks and bonds to decline further. Gold may be the lifeboat safe-haven place to hide if things get ugly. I am looking for a lower-risk entry to buy gold. However, this is a time for patience, discipline, and risk management. A few stocks are breaking out from proper pivots, but they have been quickly hit with heavy selling, indicating higher risk, so cash becomes a viable position. This is not a time to ignore risk and assume the Fed will print more money to bail us out as they have in every crisis beforehand. Sometimes, we win by not losing. (There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns, or avoid losses.)
Yields are rising, the dollar may have peaked, and gold is starting to shine! Treasury yields continue to increase as inflation remains unchecked. The market thinks the Fed will not lower rates until we enter war or a recession, so the cost of doing business (yields) remains an impediment to growth. The dollar is flirting with significant overhead resistance. I expect the dollar to head lower as Congress continues its uncapped spending. The more we spend, the more the Fed must print money to buy the debt no one wants, which could cause the dollar to lose more value. Gold prices spiked over 3% Friday on above-average volume, indicating a possible flight to safety. I see a sparkle of hope in this shiny metal that may serve as “insurance” against the relentless decline of the dollar since we were taken off the gold standard in 1971.
The Fed sold only $4 billion of bonds last week, pushing rates higher! However, they may be putting the brakes on reducing their balance sheet because they were putting pressure on rates while claiming to be fighting the inflation they have created. The Fed is a private entity working for the Banks and is NOT a federal agency. The Fed is biased to help its member banks make a profit, and higher rates typically generate higher returns for banks. I believe a gold-based currency would solve many problems created by central banks printing too much money.
Bottom line: The major indexes are in defined downtrends, so I am not eager to buy anything except gold or an inverse ETF that makes money when yields rise! Outside of a recession, I cannot make a case for yields to trend lower. Unfortunately, I expect yields to continue rising in the foreseeable future because the Fed created inflation, and they can’t fix it without putting us in a recession. Our debt/GDP is near 125%, our national debt is over $33.5 trillion or $100,000 per citizen, and the only way I see the debt being paid off is to print more devalued dollars. Since we got off the gold standard in 1971, the dollar has lost value every day, so inflation has been eroding our purchasing power for decades, and no one seems to care. I believe God still has his hand of favor on America, and he will work all things for his glory. I have an optimistic mindset, but fear is a real emotion. Jesus tells us repeatedly in the Bible, “Fear not,” so I will obey and live in His gift of Peace. Grace and Peace to Everyone!
Fear not, for I am with you; be not dismayed, for I am your God; I will strengthen you, I will help you, I will uphold you with my righteous right hand. Isaiah 41:10
Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the Prospectus, obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting IssacharFund.com. The Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., a member of FINRA/SIPC. Horizon Capital Management Inc. (HCM) is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.
Important Risk Information: Mutual Funds involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. An investment in the Fund may not be appropriate for all investors. The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly, and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions. The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value, and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove incorrect and may not produce the desired results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Ratings are only one form of Fund performance and should not be used as the sole consideration in an investment decision. Opinions expressed are subject to change, not guaranteed, and should not be considered investment advice. There is no assurance these opinions or forecasts will come to pass, and past performance is no assurance of future results. For more information regarding the Fund, including current performance, please visit IssacharFund.com. NLD Code: 3441-NLD-10/16/2023