Market Update October 16, 2016

1)       The Issachar Fund (LIONX) is fully invested and leveraged (190%) in Floating Rate and Strategic Income mutual funds.  I consider the “risk” being elevated at this time however I believe that the “fix” is in to elect Hillary so the “powers that be” will support the market at all cost at least until the vote on November 8, 2016.  (Portfolio holdings are subject to change at any time and should not be considered investment advice.)

2)       Chinese exports fell by 10% year over year while estimates were for a 3% decline.  I believe the market will quickly digest the ramifications of a weaker than expected Chinese economy.  If China is weaker than expected, then one might also expect a decrease in demand for oil which might support a lower oil price.  There is about $200 billion of junk bonds in the energy sector that may also be in less demand, which could cause junk bond prices to decline.  A weak China could also mean a more risky emerging market environment as demand for goods from other Asian countries decline.  Traders may start to unwind their “risk on” positions and adopt a “risk off” mentality, and we may see the market head south now that the up-trend has been broken to the down side.

3)       The EU bureaucracy in Brussels wants to punish Britain for the Brexit vote and as part of the “divorce” settlement they are demanding over $20 billion from Brittan to leave the EU.  Maybe the head guy at the EU had too much Cognac for breakfast!  Maybe they need to get rid of the career politicians by imposing term-limits just like we need here in the US!

4)       A video of the New York Election Commissioner, a Democrat, said that voters were being bussed from one voting booth to another, allowing them to vote multiple times and they were not being asked to show an ID because by law, they are not allowed to ask for one.  This is hard to believe but you can Google it for yourself.  Twitter banned the person from Veritas who did the interview so it might be hard to find in the media unless you happen to see it on Fox News.

5)       The futures market is implying a 70% chance of a Fed Rate hike AFTER the election, which may be causing the US dollar to hit a six-month high.  The British pound has fallen to its weakest level since 1848!  Will the Fed really raise rates in December like they did in 2015?      

6)       The Fed has held short-term interest rates artificially low for the past several years while it has expanded its balance sheet to unprecedented levels (over $4.5 trillion). Monetary policy has been loose to say the least.  However, banks have held most of the Fed’s Quantitative Easing (QE) as excess reserves to the tune of $2.2 trillion in excess reserves.  Banks are reluctant to lend out these excess reserves because they fear that the Fed could withdraw the reserves and the banks would be forced to “call” in their loans.  The Fed may have created another “bubble” that they will likely try to deflate slowly, but that seldom works very well.  M2 was growing at a 6% clip from 2009 to 2015, but from January to September of this year, M2 was growing at an 8.5% annualized rate!   More money ultimately brings more inflation so I am keeping an eye on Gold, Treasury Bonds and the dollar for clues!      

7)       A good rule is to never let a small loss turn into a large one, so draw a line in the sand and be disciplined to take action if that “line” is crossed.  I believe that the next major decline will be far worse than the one we saw in 2008, so keep your eye on the bottom “line” and protect what you have worked so hard for.  No one cares more about your money than you do.  

8)       Remember when Obama said that he will “fundamentally transform America”?  I believe that the economy is being “transformed” from a full-time economy into a part-time economy, and the Jobs Report might be showing us a few clues. The latest Jobs Report showed that we lost 5,000 full-time jobs in September, but we gained 430,000 part-time jobs for a net of about 150,000 jobs created in September.  When someone loses a full-time paying job and can’t find another full-time job, the bills keep coming in, so they might accept two or three part-time jobs to replace the full-time job they originally lost.  Is losing the high-paying jobs (13,000 manufacturing jobs lost in September) to low-paying part-time jobs what America really needs?  Does America need the economy to grow at a faster pace, or is the perceived slow growth acceptable?  Will Obama Care health insurance premiums rise to levels in 2017 that Americans can no longer afford?  Is Obama Care designed to put private health insurance companies out of business?  Is the government run Veteran’s Administration (VA) a model of what we can expect if the government takes over our health care system? Do we really want a socialist heath care system like Europe? Have our morals and values gotten better or worse since America was founded?  Please think and pray about these questions when you cast your vote on November 8, 2016.  Our future is depending on your vote!

 

For the wages of sin is death, but the gift of God is eternal life in Christ Jesus our Lord. 

Romans 6:23

My Philosophy:
I look at many price charts every day in an effort to manage the risk I take since no one can guarantee the return.  The market decides the return and I decide how much risk I am willing to accept then I actively manage it with the help of some basic trend-line analysis techniques.  I use up and down trends and support and resistance lines to help with making buy and sell decisions.  My management style is very flexible in that LIONX can be fully invested and leveraged in a perceived low risk environment, and LIONX can be 100% in cash or short in a perceived high risk environment.  LIONX can be between 250% long and 150% short depending on the environment we are investing in.  I certainly do not subscribe to the “buy and hold” philosophy.  I really enjoy finding low volatility mutual funds that trend up with good day-to-day serial price correlations then use leverage to take advantage of the perceived opportunity. My opinions of what the market should do are not important.  What is important is that I try to capture most of the major up moves and try to stay out of the major down moves.  In order to “stay in the game”, I must attempt to protect assets first then grow them when the perceived time is right. In the long-run, I hope to finish well and honor God with all he has blessed me with. 

After twenty-four years of professionally managing money, I opened LIONX to investors who want me to manage their money exactly like I manage my own money. If you do trust me with your assets, I will do my best to become one!

I am an “independent” thinker and I am NOT part of the “establishment” brokerage industry.  My goal is to operate in the best interest of the LIONX shareholders, which is also my best interest since all of my personal assets are invested in LIONX.

Your friends can also sign up to receive my Blog at: www.ChristianMoneyBlog.net     or    www.LIONX.net      

The Issachar Fund (LIONX) is a No-Load Mutual Fund that can be purchased at several major retail brokerages on their No-Transaction-Fee (NTF) platforms. Horizon Capital Management, Inc. (HCM) is the Fund Advisor, and I am the “independent” sole-owner of HCM, where I make all investment decisions to hopefully benefit the shareholders invested in LIONX.  LIONX is now Blue Skied (available for purchase) in ALL states.  (No-Load mutual funds are sold without a sales charge, however other fees and expenses do apply to an investment in the Fund.)

Dexter P. Lyons
Issachar Fund Portfolio Manager
106 Valerie Drive
Lafayette, LA  70508
337-983-0676          
Dexter@LIONX.net
My Linked In Profile Page: http://bit.ly/DexterPLyonsLinkedInProfile

                
Disciplined, Focused, Alternative, Unconstrained, Independent, No-Mandate Manager, Actively Managing Market Risk Since 1990!

Issachar Fund (LIONX)
1 Chronicles 12:32 & Revelation 5:5
“the Sons of Issachar were known for their understanding of the times…”
“Look
, the Lion of the tribe of Judah, the heir to David’s throne, has won the victory…”

        Thanks for your time and I wish you a Profitable and Blessed Day!

Disclosures:
There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns, or avoid losses.  Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund is contained in the prospectus, which can be obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting www.LIONX.net.  The prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC, member FINRA/SIPC.

Horizon Capital Management Inc., is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.

Mutual Funds involve risks including the possible loss of principal.

The Fund may engage in frequent trading, leading to increased portfolio turnover, higher transaction costs, and the possibility of increased net capital gains, including net short-term capital gains that will be taxable to shareholders as ordinary income when distributed.  The Fund may hold cash positions and there is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses, or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions.  The Fund’s investments in large capitalization stocks may underperform Funds that invest primarily in the stocks of lower quality, smaller capitalization companies during periods when the stocks of such companies are in favor.  Investments in small-capitalization and mid-capitalization companies involve greater risks and volatility than investing in larger capitalization companies.  Small and medium-size companies often have narrower markets for their goods and/or services and more limited managerial and financial resources than larger, more established companies.  The Fund is non-diversified, which means it invests a high percentage of its assets in a limited number of securities.  A non-diversified fund’s NAVs and total returns may fluctuate more or fall greater in times of weaker markets than a diversified mutual fund.

The Fund invests in debt instruments which have varying levels of sensitivity to changes in interest rates, credit risk and other factors.  Many debt instruments are subject to prepayment risk, which is the risk that the issuer of the security will repay principal prior to the maturity date.  The Fund could lose money if the issuer or guarantor of a debt security goes bankrupt or is unable or unwilling to make interest payments and/or repay principal.  Changes in an issuer’s financial strength or credit rating also may affect a security’s value and have an impact on Fund performance.  The value of the Fund’s investment in fixed income securities will fall when interest rates rise and the effect of increased interest rates is more pronounced for intermediate-term or longer-term fixed income obligations owned by the Fund.  The Fund will invest a significant portion of its assets in securities that are rated below investment grade or “junk bonds.”  Junk bonds may be sensitive to economic changes, political changes, or adverse developments specific to a company.  These securities generally involve greater risk of default or price changes than other types of fixed-income securities and the Fund’s performance may vary significantly as a result.  The floating rate loans in which the Fund invests are usually rated below investment grade and are generally considered speculative because they present a greater risk of loss, including default, than higher quality debt securities and may be less liquid than higher rated debt securities.

The value of the Fund’s asset-backed securities may be affected by changes in interest rates, the availability of information concerning the interests in and structure of the pools of purchase contracts, financing leases or sales agreements that are represented by these securities, the credit worthiness of the servicing agent for the pool, the originator of the loans or receivables, or the entities that provide any supporting letters of credit, surety bonds, or other credit enhancements.  The Fund’s investment in municipal securities carries additional risk including changes in federal, state or local laws that may make a municipal issuer unable to make interest payments when due. Municipal securities backed by current or anticipated revenues from a specific project or specific assets can be negatively affected by the inability to collect revenue, for the project or from the assets. Moreover, an adverse interpretation of the tax status of municipal securities may make such securities decline in value.  In addition to the risks typically associated with fixed income securities, loan participations carry other risks, including the risk of insolvency of the lending bank or other intermediary.  Loan participations may be unsecured or not fully collateralized, may be subject to restrictions on resale and sometimes trade infrequently on the secondary market.

The Fund uses investment techniques, including investments in futures contracts, forward contracts, options and swaps, which may be considered to be an aggressive investment technique.  Investments in such derivatives may general be subject to market risks that may cause their prices to fluctuate over time and may increase the volatility of the Fund.  The use of derivatives may expose the Fund to additional risks that it would not be subject to if it invested directly in the securities underlying those derivatives, such as counter party risk and the risk that the derivatives may become illiquid.  The use of derivatives may result in larger losses or smaller gains than investing in the underlying securities directly.   Interest rate swaps are subject to interest rate and credit risk.  Total return swaps are subject to counter party risk, which relate to credit risk of the counter party and liquidity risk of the swaps themselves.  There may be an imperfect correlation between the prices of options, futures, and/or forward contract and movements in the price of the securities (or indices) hedged or used for cover which may cause a given hedge not to achieve its objective.  There may not be a liquid secondary market for futures contracts and Forward currency transactions include the risks associated with fluctuations in currency.   If the Fund uses a hedging instrument at the wrong time or judges the market conditions incorrectly, the hedge might be unsuccessful, reduce the Fund’s investment return, or create a loss.  Use of leverage can magnify the effects of changes in the value of the Fund and makes them more volatile and increases the risk for loss in adverse environments.  Short positions are designed to profit from a decline in the price of particular securities, baskets of securities or indices.  The Fund will lose value if the instrument’s price rises – a result that is the opposite from traditional mutual funds.

Investments in foreign securities and securities that provide exposure to foreign securities involve greater risks than investing in domestic securities.  As a result, the Fund’s returns and NAVs may be affected to a large degree by fluctuations in currency exchange rates, political, diplomatic or economic conditions and regulatory requirements in other countries. The Fund also may invest in depositary receipts, including ADRs, which are traded on exchanges and provide an alternative to investing directly in foreign securities.  Investments in ADRs are subject to many of the risks associated with investing directly in foreign securities.  The laws and accounting, auditing, and financial reporting standards in foreign countries typically are not as strict as they are in the U.S., and there may be less public information available about foreign companies.  Investments in emerging markets instruments involve greater risks than investing in foreign instruments in general. Risks of investing in emerging market countries include political or social upheaval, nationalization of businesses, restrictions on foreign ownership and prohibitions on the repatriation of assets and risks from an economy’s dependence on revenues from particular commodities or industries among others.

The indices shown are for informational purposes only and are not reflective of any investment.   As it is not possible to invest in the indices, the data shown does not reflect or compare features of an actual investment, such as its objectives, costs and expenses, liquidity, safety, guarantees or insurance, fluctuation of principal or return, or tax features.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Long: Buying a security such as a stock, commodity or currency, with the expectation that the asset will rise in value.

Short: Any sale that is completed by the delivery of a security borrowed by the seller.  Short sellers assume they will be able to buy the stock at a lower amount that the price at which they sold short.

M2 is a measure of the money supply that includes all elements of M1 as well as “near money.” M1 includes cash and checking deposits, while near money refers to savings deposits, money market securities, mutual funds and other time deposits.
Dexter P. Lyons   .   106 Valerie Drive   .   Lafayette, LA  70508   .   Dexter@Lionx.net   .   www.LIONX.net

Reviewed by

NLD Review Code 3763-NLD-10/17/2016

 
 

 

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Dexter Lyons