Market Update: 11-18-19

The Issachar Fund (LIONX), is about 70% invested in stocks and seeking more opportunities!  I added about 30% more individual stocks last week.  I am buying stocks that have produced three consecutive quarters of increases in sales and earnings and forecasting double digit earnings for next year.  The market has been rewarding growth stocks and this is the kind of market I like to invest in.  I am bullish and I hope to increase our exposure as more opportunities present themselves.  LIONX is a BRI, Trend Following, Liquid-Alternative Mutual Fund that is Actively Managing  Risk like a Hedge Fund seeking low-correlation/beta/risk to the stock indexes.  When my Strategy identifies a low risk environment, I seek to invest in junk bonds/growth stocks with strong technical chart patterns and sound fundamentals.  During high risk environments I seek to avoid Life-Changing losses.  The Issachar Fund seeks moderate capital appreciation consistent with capital preservation.  (Portfolio holdings are subject to change at any time and should not be considered investment advice.) 

Don’t fight the Fed!  The market is trading higher in a low-volatility up-trend as it seems to ignore China Trade, Brexit, impeachment hearings and Hong Kong protests.  A few weeks ago, the market was fixated on the “news” but now it does not seem to care.  What changed?  The Fed!  One thing I have learned over the last 30 years of managing risk is to never fight the Fed.  When the Fed is adding liquidity to the market, it is usually a good time to be invested.  Fed futures are now forecasting a 0% chance of a rate cut in 22 days.  That tells me that the market is not expecting a recession like it was just a few weeks ago.  If the market feared a recession was imminent then I believe the market would likely be expecting the Fed to cut rates, so I am a “happy camper”…… for now.         

My conviction level increased after attending a NAAIM Conference last week.  NAAIM stands for National Association of Active Investment Managers and I recommend it to anyone interested in learning how to manage market risk.  I have been a member for many years, and I sit on the Board, so I am a little biased.  However, this conference was probably one of the best because I now have a better understanding of how the Fed operates and more importantly why it does what it does. 

The Fed has added almost 300 billion in liquidity since the end of August 2019!  Now that is a lot of money that has to go somewhere, and some of that money is finding its way into the stock market as the indexes make new highs.  In October 2017, the Fed announced they would be “tapering” their bloated balance sheet and the Fed stopped reducing its balance sheet in August 2019.  The Fed may have been spooked about something they have not fully disclosed because on October 11, 2019, they announced that they will expand their balance sheet once again.  The Fed was careful to say, “it’s Not QE”!  They were reducing their balance sheet at about $60 billion per month (selling bonds) but they are now increasing T-Bill purchases to the tune of about $60 billion per month until at least March 2020.  As the Fed buys bonds, that money has to go somewhere, and investors seem to like what they see in the market, so a lot of this excess liquidity appears to be driving stock prices higher.  This will likely last until it doesn’t, and no one will ring a bell and say that risk is high, and it is time to sell.  I am watching all of the eggs in our basket and will take prudent action while seeking to maximize gains and minimize losses.             

Bottom line:  QE seems to be driving the market for now so let’s enjoy the ride while it lasts.  I promise to treat your money like it is my very own.  Thanks for Your Trust and may God Bless You and Your Loved Ones!               


Here is a link to the latest
3rd Quarter Issachar Fund Fact Sheet

Member organizations: KA, NACFC, CIF, OSC, NAAIM and here is a podcast link to my interview on The Real FBI.       

Biblical Responsible Investing (BRI) is the term used to describe the activities of Christian investors who purposely align their investment choices to support their Christian beliefs. The Fund is ESG (Environmental Social Governance) conscious, pro-life and pro-family and will not invest in securities with a negative InspireImpact Score.     

In Christ we have redemption through his blood, the forgiveness of sins, in accordance with the riches of God’s grace.  Ephesians 1:7  (We are all children of God (who created everything) so we just need to Believe to inherit the Kingdom!)

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the prospectus, which can be obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting https://www.LIONX.net.  The prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC.   Horizon Capital Management Inc, Inc is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.  Important Risk Information.  Mutual Funds involve risks including the possible loss of principal.  The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions.  If the Fund’s uses hedging instruments at the wrong time or judges market conditions incorrectly, the hedge might be unsuccessful, reduce the Fund’s investment return, or create a loss.  The use of leverage can magnify the effects of changes in value of the Fund and could cause investors in the Fund to lose more money in adverse environments.  The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove to be incorrect and may not produce the desired results.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  If the Fund’s uses hedging instruments at the wrong time or judges market conditions incorrectly, the hedge might be unsuccessful, reduce the Fund’s investment return, or create a loss.  The use of leverage can magnify the effects of changes in value of the Fund and could cause investors in the Fund to lose more money in adverse environments.    NLD Review Code: 3875-NLD-11/18/2019

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Dexter Lyons