Market Update: 04-20-20

Check out these 1st Quarter LIONX Fact Sheet Results!

The Issachar Fund (LIONX), is FULLY invested in about 60 growth stocks as of 4/19/20!  I have taken a “shotgun” approach to buying stocks and plan to “feed” my winners and “shoot” my losers.  I believe the trend is up and massive excessive amounts of QE are driving stock prices higher.  While I may always have an opinion on the market, Price and Volume tell me what is happening, so I try to stay in sync with reality and not what I think the market should be doing.  The market is usually right, and it has a way of telling me who is wrong.  The S&P 500 Index has trended up about 28% since 3/23/20, but it is down -10.49% YTD and down -19.60% in the 1st quarter with a maximum draw-down (MDD) of -33.79%.  However, LIONX was up 1.34% in the first quarter and it is up 5.84% YTD with an MDD of -4.63% and -7.09% since inception on 2/28/14.  LIONX is doing relatively well and I am optimistically bullish looking ahead.  Here are more returns to compare.  (Portfolio holdings are subject to change at any time and should not be considered investment advice.)  

The performance data quoted here represents past performance. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted above. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. For performance information current to the most recent month-end, please call toll-free 866-787-8355. 

Total annual fund operating expenses are 3.38%.

The Fed’s balance sheet has exploded to a record high of over $6 Trillion after increasing over $1.9 Trillion since 3/3/20!  We may be witnessing the start of a new Fed bubble that may have lots of collateral damage when it pops.  However, I do not believe we are there yet.  Where will all this QE money go?  Some of this “easy money” appears to be finding a “happy home” in the stock market and I believe this QE “experiment” may eventually lead to inflation …of higher stock prices.  I am currently finding many liquid leading stocks breaking out of sound bases on above-average volume and this tells me that “big money” may be on the move, so that is where I am focused.  If I am wrong, I maintain stop-loss orders, which seek to limit downside losses.  Additionally, I never hold a stock through its earnings report regardless of how I “feel” about a company.  These simple rules have saved me lots of stress and pain in the last 30 years of actively managing risk. (There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns, or avoid losses.)    

Oil prices are down over 67% YTD!   The price of oil plummeted to a 21-year low Sunday evening as uncertainty mounted around the storage of excess supply.  WTI crude oil plunged as much as 21% to $14.47 per barrel.  Deflation is a major risk the Fed is fighting because it can cause people to not buy now if they might be able to get it cheaper in a month.  I believe that Saudi Arabia and Russia have declared war on the “frackers”.  They are opening their oil spigots to increase supply to drive prices down and ultimately trying to force the oil “frackers” out of business.  The frackers revolutionized the oil drilling industry by “directional” drilling multiple wells from one drilling rig location.  In the old days, it would take 20 rigs to drill 20 wells and now they can do it from one location.  Frackers saved the industry tons of money and produced excess amounts of oil so much so that the US is a net exporter.  I do not consider oil or the oil industry to necessarily be a “good buy” just because the stocks are “cheap”.  I believe the trend of oil is still down and these stocks could become “cheaper”.  I am not a bargain hunter, nor do I like trying to catch a falling knife.  I like to buy stocks under accumulation and attempt to sell them before they come under distribution.    

Bottom line:  I am a trend follower and Price tells me that the “trend is my friend” and it currently appears up.  I do not believe that we have to retest the 3/23/20 low because QE could trump historical precedents.  The wind seems to be at our backs.  I do not want to be on a bull or bear side, I just hope to be on the right side.  I promise to do my best to avoid future life-changing losses.  I believe fear is a stronger emotion than greed.  Sometimes, I have to tune out the bad news, keep an open mind and just follow the trend.  If you know someone who struggles with fear, tell them to ask God to replace their fear with His Courage and then expect a miracle.  It worked for me and it can work for anyone if they simply Trust and Believe in Him who created everything.  

Links: My Story, Strategy, Blogs, Interview, Fact Sheet

Do not be anxious about anything, but in every situation, by prayer and petition, with thanksgiving, present your requests to God. And the peace of God, which transcends all understanding, will guard your hearts and your minds in Christ Jesus.  Philippians 4:6-7

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Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the prospectus, which can be obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting https://www.LIONX.net.  The prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC.   Horizon Capital Management Inc., (HCM) is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.  

Important Risk Information: Mutual Funds involve risks including the possible loss of principal.  An investment in the Fund may not be appropriate for all investors.  The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions.  If the Fund uses hedging instruments at the wrong time or judges market conditions incorrectly, the hedge might be unsuccessful, reduce the Fund’s investment return, or create a loss. 

The use of leverage can magnify the effects of changes in value of the Fund and could cause investors in the Fund to lose more money in adverse environments.  The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove to be incorrect and may not produce the desired results.  If the Fund uses hedging instruments at the wrong time or judges market conditions incorrectly, the hedge might be unsuccessful, reduce the Fund’s investment return, or create a loss.  The use of leverage can magnify the effects of changes in value of the Fund and could cause investors in the Fund to lose more money in adverse environments.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results. S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged composite of 500 large-capitalization companies.

Stop Loss – denoting or relating to an order to sell a security or commodity at a specified price in order to limit a loss.

Biblical Responsible Investing (BRI) describes the activities of Christian investors who purposely align their investment choices to support their Christian values. LIONX is also ESG (Environmental Social Governance) conscious, pro-life and pro-family. LIONX is a BRI, Trend Following, Liquid-Alternative, Tactical Allocation Mutual Fund that is Actively Managing Risk like a Hedge Fund seeking low-correlation/beta/risk to the stock indexes.  When my Strategy identifies a low-risk environment, I seek to invest in growth stocks/junk bonds with sound fundamentals and strong technical chart patterns.  During high-risk environments, I seek to avoid Life-Changing losses.  The Issachar Fund seeks moderate capital appreciation consistent with capital preservation.  The Fund’s Adviser (HCM) is Celebrating 30 Years of Actively Managing Risk!  99% of my liquid net worth is invested in LIONX, so I have the incentive to avoid life-changing losses when the next recession/bear market occurs.  Before June 2019, I was not honoring God by investing in companies that support abortion, pornography, human trafficking, etc. then God touched my heart.  He revealed to me how to screen out “bad actors” and make His Fund a BRI Fund.  Since partnering with Inspire, LIONX has only invested in companies with positive Inspire Impact Scores and I am very pleased with the results.  The ­Inspire Impact Score is a faith-based ESG (environment, social, governance) security selection methodology that seeks to identify the most inspiring, biblically aligned companies in the world.  NLD Review Code: 3495-NLD-4/20/2020

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Dexter Lyons