Category - Weekly Updates

Market Update: 08-22-22

Time to Hold, But!

The Issachar Fund is about 67% invested, but indexes are weak! The Russel 2000 index of small-cap stocks broke out above its 200-day moving average (DMA) two Fridays ago, and it looked like the S&P 500 index of large-cap stocks would follow suit after $1 trillion of new spending was passed. However, all major indexes are now trading below their 200-DMAs, and it feels like the market has a downward bias. We are invested, but that could change if we do not get some follow-through buying this week in the leaders. Oil & gas, biotech, and solar stocks have been leading the market higher, but they could fall if liquidity does not come in quickly to support this rally off the June 16th low. The action in the market this week could be pivotable. Liquidity is the key! (There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns, or avoid losses.)

The Fed decreased its balance sheet by $29 billion last week, which might be a bad sign! The Fed has drained $116 billion of liquidity from the market since April 19th, and I believe this bear market rally is feeling the effects of less liquidity. It is widely expected the Fed will raise rates at its next meeting, but it now appears they may be tapping the brakes of liquidity to fight the inflation they created. The 10-year treasury yield ended the week at 2.989%, and growth stocks with lots of debt typically do not do well in a rising rate environment. The US Debt Clock shows that the interest paid on the record $30.7 trillion of debt could exceed the US federal tax revenue if rates exceeded 3.5%. I believe the Fed has painted itself into a corner and will inevitably have to continue to print “fake” money because it can’t afford to raise rates above 3.5%. Where would growth come from if all federal tax revenue went to servicing our $ 30-plus trillion debt? We could already be in a life-changing recession with high inflation, and that kind of stagflation could be challenging for people who believe the narrive coming from Washington.

If the decisions out of Washington defy your common sense, then you are blessed and should Thank God! If you see the wrong and want to do something, run for office or support those who share your views. Please stand with me, and pray for God to restore worldly hearts to Him. Pray for God to send us new leadership in November to get this great country back on track and share His love with our neighbors.

Bottom Line: I may have been a little too optimistic last week, but I am not afraid to change my opinion when conditions change. We still hold positions on a short leash and dancing close to the door. The S&P 500 index hit textbook resistance at the 200-DMA on Tuesday and backed off below the 10-day Line on higher options expiration on Friday, which may not be a good sign. The Fed’s plan to address inflation may be to remove liquidity, crash the economy, and collapse demand. Twelve years of Fed-induced liquidity injections producing a bull market in stocks and bonds may be unwinding before our eyes. Please pray our leaders will follow God’s wisdom and do what is right in His eyes. Grace & Peace to everyone!

Links: Fact Sheet, Performance, Blogs, Strategy, My Story, Docs, BRI

Issachar: Active Alternative & Defensively Managed Like A Hedge Fund!

Let your conversation always be full of grace, seasoned with salt, so you may know how to answer everyone. Colossians 4:6

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the Prospectus, obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting IssacharFund.com. The Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC. Horizon Capital Management Inc. (HCM) is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.

Important Risk Information: Mutual Funds involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. An investment in the Fund may not be appropriate for all investors. The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly, and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions. The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value, and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove incorrect and may not produce the desired results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Ratings are only one form of Fund performance and should not be used as the sole consideration in an investment decision. Opinions expressed are subject to change, not guaranteed, and should not be considered investment advice. There is no assurance these opinions or forecasts will come to pass, and past performance is no assurance of future results. For more information regarding the fund, including current performance, please visit IssacharFund.com.   Review Code: 5756-NLD-08/22/2022

Market Update: 08-15-33

The Issachar Fund is about 63% invested in fundamentally and technically sound stocks in the top sectors. I added to our positions because the leaders have been leading the rally. I am seeing a ton of leading stocks breaking out of bases on big volume, which is a sign of institutional demand. I try to follow what the smart money is doing because they create the trends/tide that lifts many boats. The market likes liquidity, and with the two new tax and spend bills just passed, about 1 trillion of new money will need to find a new home. The inflation rate came in at 8.5% (year-over-year), less than the prior month’s 9.1% annualized rate. The market cheered this potential peak in inflation. Keep in mind that Biden has been releasing oil from our strategic petroleum reserve, increasing supply to bring gas prices down, which seems to be working in the short run. Regardless of the reason for the market’s advance, it appears to be sustainable, possibly into the November elections. (There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns, or avoid losses.)

Tidbits: The US savings rate went from 8.7% in December to 5.1% at the end of June, as Americans save less and spend more. Mark Zane, president of the Nevada Association of Licensed Repossesses, said they took in an average of 15,000 repos/day. Argentina’s central bank raised rates to 69.5% to combat inflation above 70%. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ indexes are approaching resistance at their 200-DMA, but the Russell 2000 Index has already crossed its 200-DMA. A promising sign this rally has legs.     

Last week, the Fed INCREASED its balance sheet by $4 billion instead of another slight weekly reduction. The Fed may understand how to achieve an economic soft landing by tapping the brakes on interest rates and taking its foot off the gas of liquidity. I believe the Fed will raise rates again in September to quell inflation. The Fed could cruise into the November elections by stepping on the gas of liquidity as needed to juice the stock market and keep investors happy. I pray that we get an overwhelming number of God-fearing, fiscally responsible leaders in November to unite us so we can honor Him with all we have.       

Bottom Line: I am more optimistic now that leading stocks are leading the rally on big volume. I plan to get more invested this week as I find pivot points of entry in leading stocks. If the market experiences some unexpected heavy selling, I plan to hedge by shorting an index. I have not been this bullish all year so let’s hope I am right and thank God for his wisdom and blessings. Grace & Peace to everyone!

Links: Fact Sheet, Performance, Blogs, Strategy, My Story, Docs, BRI

Issachar: Active Alternative & Defensively Managed Like A Hedge Fund!

Give thanks to the Lord, for he is good; his love endures forever. Psalm 106:1

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the Prospectus, obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting IssacharFund.com. The Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC. Horizon Capital Management Inc. (HCM) is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.

Important Risk Information: Mutual Funds involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. An investment in the Fund may not be appropriate for all investors. The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly, and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions. The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value, and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove incorrect and may not produce the desired results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Ratings are only one form of Fund performance and should not be used as the sole consideration in an investment decision. Opinions expressed are subject to change, not guaranteed, and should not be considered investment advice. There is no assurance these opinions or forecasts will come to pass, and past performance is no assurance of future results. For more information regarding the fund, including current performance, please visit IssacharFund.com.   Review Code: 5744-NLD-08/15/2022

Market Update: 08-08-22

The Issachar Fund is about 23% invested in fundamentally and technically sound stocks in the top sectors. The over-bought S&P 500 index is up over 13% since the 6/16/22 bottom; looking for an excuse to correct, but it has not found one yet. The employment report came out Friday better than expected, with more jobs created, and the market did not correct. I expected the market to experience heavy selling in this bear market rally after a hot jobs report implying steeper rate hikes by the Fed. However, the S&P 500 was only down a fraction, and the NASDAQ 100, while down hard initially, recovered nicely on below-average volume. The NASDAQ led the rally as investors piled back into the higher PE stocks, hoping the Fed would soon pivot to an easing stance. You know Fed rate increases may be near an end when they now have a term for it – the Fed pivot. The above two indexes are at resistance, and some sideways action would be an encouraging sign the market may be headed higher. The key will be how much liquidity is in the market for the buyers to overcome the sellers. If my thesis is wrong and our stocks violate their sell criteria, I will act accordingly regardless of what I think the market should do. (There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns, or avoid losses.)        

Last week, the Fed decreased its balance sheet by $15 billion and had been trending down about 3% annualized since topping in April. The balance sheet is declining as the Fed promised, albeit slower, not to wreck the stock market and economy. The Fed may raise rates one last time in September and possibly start an easing cycle before the November elections. No one knows the future, but the market seems ready to reflate.

The $280 billion Chips Plus Bill and the $739 billion Inflation Reduction “green energy pork barrel” tax and spend bill should add plenty of liquidity to the stock market, but what will it do to our country? I can’t see how increased government spending will bring down inflation, nor will higher taxes be suitable for a recession. Common sense says it will not end well if we keep spending more than we make. U.S. credit card balances rose 13%, the highest increase in over 20 years. There are twice as many credit card accounts as people in America. Common sense says a nation of debt-driven consumerism is unsustainable with rising rates and a slowing economy. Net insider selling is now at levels last seen in January 2022, while retail investors are buying calls at levels not seen since 2020. I do not have much conviction that this is a new bull market, but I am following my strategy rules for getting in, and I have an exit plan.   

Bottom Line: Issachar is lightly invested and dancing close to the door in case a fire breaks out. When growth stocks rally on bad news, that is a good sign. The market seems to be hoping the Fed will pivot to an easing policy sooner rather than later. I am not seeing a lot of leading stocks breaking out of sound bases, but a lot of stocks are bouncing from bottoms. As a result, this bounce off the lows may be a bear market rally instead of a new bull market. I remain flexible and plan to follow my strategy and rules to protect and grow all assets in the Fund. Thank you for your trust and business, and I pray for an abundance of God’s blessings on you and this great country. Grace & Peace to everyone! 

Links: Fact Sheet, Performance, Blogs, Strategy, My Story, Docs, BRI

Issachar: Active Alternative & Defensively Managed Like A Hedge Fund!

Peace, I leave with you; my peace I give to you. Not as the world gives do I give to you. Let not your hearts be troubled, neither let them be afraid. John 14:27

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the Prospectus, obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting IssacharFund.com. The Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC. Horizon Capital Management Inc. (HCM) is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.

Important Risk Information: Mutual Funds involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. An investment in the Fund may not be appropriate for all investors. The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly, and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions. The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value, and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove incorrect and may not produce the desired results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Ratings are only one form of Fund performance and should not be used as the sole consideration in an investment decision. Opinions expressed are subject to change, not guaranteed, and should not be considered investment advice. There is no assurance these opinions or forecasts will come to pass, and past performance is no assurance of future results. For more information regarding the fund, including current performance, please visit IssacharFund.com.   Review Code: 5733-NLD-08/08/2022

Market Update: 08-01-22

The Issachar Fund is sitting patiently in Cash, waiting for lower-risk opportunities. The S&P 500 index dropped nearly -12% from 6/7/22 to 6/16/22 (7 days), then rallied about 12% (29 days) into the 4,177-congestion area of resistance on Friday. The NASDAQ 100 rallied past tight double-top congestion areas on below-average volume, so I expect these major indexes to consolidate/decline from these overbought levels. If the market pushes through these resistance areas on above-average volume, I plan to buy fundamentally sound stocks near pivot points. The Fed raised rates 75 bps on Wednesday to combat inflation while congress is increasing spending by passing a $280 billion Chips Plus Bill. Congress is also scheduled to pass a $739 billion Inflation Reduction “green energy pork barrel” tax and spend bill to fight climate change. Over $1 trillion of new government spending will likely increase (not reduce) inflation the Fed is trying to tame. On Thursday, we learned that the 2nd quarter of U.S. GDP contracted by -0.90% following a -1.5% decline in the 1st quarter leading to a “technical” recession. Congress is rushing these bills through before their August recess because Democrat leadership could change after the November elections. There is hope that Democratic Senator Kyrsten Sinema could kill the “climate change” bill and save America. Congress raising taxes and regulations in a recession and increasing spending while inflation is still hot defies common sense. Recession + Inflation = Stagflation. We could be mired in a stagflationary environment of low growth and high inflation until we get new leadership with an America-first vision. Unfortunately, I believe evil forces want to destroy America, but God still has His hand of favor and protection on America, and we win in the end. (There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns, or avoid losses.)

The Fed decreased its balance sheet by only $9 billion last week to $8.9 trillion, but still near its $9 trillion all-time high. The Fed is trying to fight inflation by raising rates which increases the cost of money, but they are not aggressively selling bonds (QT) to reduce their balance sheet as promised. The inflation-fighting Fed has reduced its $9 trillion balance sheet by only $55 billion since May 25, 2022, so selling more of its government bonds will likely cause rates to rise even more in a recession. The market seemed relieved the Fed only raised rates 75 bps instead of 1%, which may indicate that they will only raise rates by 50bps at their next meeting on September 21st. The market may also be anticipating the Fed may switch from Quantitative Tightening (QT) to Quantitative Easing (QE) sooner than expected.  

Bottom Line: Issachar is still on the sidelines, eager to take advantage of the next lower-risk buying opportunity. If a new bull market has started, the market needs to decisively break above its longer-term downtrend line of resistance on greater volume. Increased government spending will likely increase inflation, and higher taxes and regulations will likely cause slower growth in a recession. I do not like what congress is doing, but the market knows best, so I follow price and volume charts for direction clues. Junk bonds are also trading up against a declining trend line of resistance and this week should be a big “tell” in the market. My stock watch list is growing, but they are not your typical new bull market leaders of retail and growth names, so I remain skeptical that the bottom is in. More deficit spending, Fed money creation, and not robust sales/earnings seem to be the driver behind this overbought bear market rally, so I will wait for more evidence before joining the free money printing party. Early bargain hunters will likely have a painful experience until we get some degree of capitulation selling. I pray that China does not shoot down Pelosi’s plane if she flies to Taiwan. I pray for God to raise leaders who honor the One who created everything. We build houses, but God created the wood.    

Links: Fact Sheet, Performance, Blogs, Strategy, My Story, Docs, BRI

Issachar: Active Alternative & Defensively Managed Like A Hedge Fund!

In the beginning, God created the heavens and the earth. Genesis 1:1

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the Prospectus, obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting IssacharFund.com. The Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC. Horizon Capital Management Inc. (HCM) is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.

Important Risk Information: Mutual Funds involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. An investment in the Fund may not be appropriate for all investors. The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly, and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions. The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value, and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove incorrect and may not produce the desired results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Ratings are only one form of Fund performance and should not be used as the sole consideration in an investment decision. Opinions expressed are subject to change, not guaranteed, and should not be considered investment advice. There is no assurance these opinions or forecasts will come to pass, and past performance is no assurance of future results. For more information regarding the fund, including current performance, please visit IssacharFund.com.   Review Code: 5716-NLD-08/01/2022

Market Update: 07-25-22

Rolling Over! The Issachar Fund has remained in Cash since June 9th, 2022! Issachar has been in Cash about 70% of the time this year. That is not the norm, but we are in a bear market (down -20%), and it could get worse in the next 3rd and final wave of selling. The indexes rolled over from an oversold rally after hitting resistance on Friday, and I would not be surprised to see the selling accelerate this week. We are in the meaty part of earnings season with the Four Horsemen of the NASDAQ, Apple, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft set to report this week. Given higher inflation and interest rates, the analyst’s guidance has not been rosy. I do not see this stagflationary environment changing anytime soon, so I plan to err on the side of caution, keeping my powder dry until conditions improve. The European Central Bank (ECB) raised rates for the first time in 11 years by 50 bps to zero as inflation surges. The dollar is trending higher, and gold is trending lower. (There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns, or avoid losses.)

Russia restored 40% of its natural gas flow to Germany last week through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, but it does not seem enough for Europe’s largest economy. The remaining natural gas pipelines from Poland and Ukraine have been shut off since Russia’s invasion. Germany is rationing hot water and dimming streetlights to conserve the electrical energy that natural gas generators produce. Imagine what will happen to Europe if Russia decides to reduce or stop the flow of natural gas to Germany this winter. The government banned chemical fertilizers to boost Sri Lanka’s Environmental Social Governance (ESG) score, hoping to save the planet. Farmers were forced to use more expensive organic fertilizers, which put them out of business, causing mass starvation and a real insurrection. Germany decommissioned most of its nuclear and coal-fired electric plants to boost their ESG score, and now they are firing up the shuttered coal plants to survive. I pray that our leaders have learned from our neighbors’ mistakes and get us back to being energy independent. God made oil and water for our existence, and I believe God will always provide us with an abundance. Fear is not from God, but evil minds use fear to control people who choose to accept the lie.

The Fed increased its balance sheet by $3 billion last week, so they are not reducing it (QT) as previously stated! The consensus is for the Fed to raise rates by 75 bps on Wednesday, and the CME futures are pricing in a 23% chance of a full 1% rate hike. The 30-year mortgage rate was 2.90% two years ago, and the median existing-home price in the US was $294k. Today the 30-year mortgage rate is 5.71%, and the median existing-home price is $416k. With a 20% down payment, that’s a 98% increase in the monthly payment (from $978 to $1,933). Few people can swallow that inflated pill, so I believe housing and stock prices will likely decline until we see positive policy changes.    

Bottom Line: Risk is high, and Cash is King! I am not seeing new leadership stocks, new themes, or cutting-edge companies dominating the charts, which tells me it may be tough sledding until a potential November Red Wave in the House. If the Republicans sweep the House of Representatives in November, they could elect a new leader to investigate the shady Hunter/Joe Biden’s business dealings with China and Ukraine. The Democrats could pressure Kamala Harris to resign, and Biden could appoint Hillary Clinton as VP. Then he could step down for health reasons, and we would have Hillary for President. I do not want this to happen, but it is something to consider. I believe God’s hand of Grace/Favor is still on America because our Founding Father’s honored Him as they crafted our Constitution. I pray God’s Grace & Peace on everyone reading this today!

Links: Fact Sheet, Performance, Blogs, Strategy, My Story, Docs, BRI/ESG

Issachar: Active Alternative & Defensively Managed Like A Hedge Fund!

For the law was given through Moses; Grace and Truth came through Jesus Christ. John 1:17

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the Prospectus, obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting IssacharFund.com. The Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC. Horizon Capital Management Inc. (HCM) is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.

Important Risk Information: Mutual Funds involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. An investment in the Fund may not be appropriate for all investors. The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly, and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions. The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value, and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove incorrect and may not produce the desired results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Ratings are only one form of Fund performance and should not be used as the sole consideration in an investment decision. Opinions expressed are subject to change, not guaranteed, and should not be considered investment advice. There is no assurance these opinions or forecasts will come to pass, and past performance is no assurance of future results. For more information regarding the fund, including current performance, please visit IssacharFund.com.   Review Code: 5690-NLD-07/25/2022