Category - Weekly Updates

Market Update: 12-31-18

LYONS MARKET UPDATE – Monday, December 31, 2018

Cash is a good place to be!  I took a few short stock positions and quickly covered them as they were going in the wrong direction and the Fund ended up nearly break-even on the trade.  I believe this is a trader’s market and not an investors’ market.  I will continue to sit patiently in a money market fund waiting for the next opportunity.  If Trump cuts a trade deal with China or the Fed stating that it does not need to raise rates in 2019 then we could see the market put in a tradable bottom.  However, I believe that we are in a Bear Market (>20% decline) and we might be here for longer than the majority expect.  Listen to your God-given common sense and do what is right for you and your money.  If I am right about being in a Bear Market, then one might win simply by not losing.  If you might need your money in the next five years, then I would recommend that you do what is necessary to not take on the same risk as the last five years.  Cash is a position you should seriously consider if you have not already done so.  I may have opinions about where I think the market is headed but I rely on the charts to tell me what I should do on a daily basis.  Charts are like facts, they never lie and tell you the real story.

Last week, the market posted its worst Christmas Eve decline in history and then posted the best post-Christmas Day rally in history!  Last Thursday was the biggest turnaround in history, as a 611-point Dow decline reversed in the last 90 minutes to a 260-point Dow gain.  We have just witnessed a three-day reaction low rally attempt off an oversold condition.  I now expect to see a retest of the recent low as I do not see a viable potential catalyst to take us higher so watch out below.

The Fed has not changed its balance sheet “unwinding” narrative, so I expect more selling.  Since 2008, corporate financial debt has grown about 60% from $6 to $9.6 trillion.  Corporate earnings increased about 27%, yet S&P 500 earnings increased about 60%.  This is mainly due to all the borrowed money being used for stock buy backs.  Keep in mind, this Quantitative Easing (QE) and now Quantitative Tightening (QT) “experiment” by the Fed has never been done.  The Fed had about $800 billion on its balance sheet prior to the 2008 financial crisis and now has about $4 trillion.  The Fed is selling $50 billion a month of bonds it purchased during QE which amounts to $600 billion a year that will be “drawn” from the market in 2019.  This enormous liquidity reduction will more than likely cause a lot of asset displacement in 2019 as money gets reshuffled from one asset class to another.  If we are lucky, this money will stay in the market, but I tend to believe this excess money will simply disappear as leverage and margin gets unwound.  Remember, the Fed created this liquidity out of thin air and now I expect money to slowly evaporate into thin air.  I hope that I am wrong, but I see nothing on the horizon that will change what is already set in motion.  Does your money manager understand the big-picture and has he/she ever gone to an all-cash position or do they subscribe to the “buy and hold” philosophy?

Bottom line: My Fund is 100% in Cash and I am patiently waiting for the next opportunity.  We are up over 2% YTD with a maximum draw-down (MDD) of only 4.43%.   I want to wish you a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year!

Performance data quoted represents past performance, past performance does not guarantee future results and the investment return and principal value of the investment will fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than the original cost; and that current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted.  Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the prospectus, which can be obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting https://www.LIONX.net.  The prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC. Horizon Capital Management Inc, Inc is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.


Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the prospectus, which can be obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting https://www.LIONX.net.  The prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC.
Horizon Capital Management Inc, Inc is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.


Important Risk Information

Mutual Funds involve risks including the possible loss of principal.
The Fund may hold cash positions when the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions.  The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove to be incorrect and may not produce the desired results.
Maximum Drawdown (MDD) is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. MDD is an indicator of downside risk.
Quantitative Tightening (QT) is a contractionary monetary policy applied by a central bank to decrease amount of liquidity within the economy.
Quantitative Easing (QE)is an expansionary policy aimed at increasing the money supply in order to stimulate the economy.

Investments cannot be made in an index. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  NLD Review Code: 5432-NLD-12/31/2018

Market Update: 12-24-18

The Issachar Fund (LIONX) is Still on Defense with 100% in Cash (money market: FIGXX)! LIONX is up 2.41% YTD with a Maximum Draw Down (MDD) of only 4.43% versus a loss of -7.87% for the S&P with an MDD of -17.12%. The S&P 500 peaked on 10/3/18 and I took LIONX to an all CASH position on 10/4/18. Since October 4th, I have been invested four times (< 2 days and < 20% each time) and have experienced a total net loss of less than 1% while the S&P has lost over 16% in the same period. Actively managing risk for the last 28 years has not been an easy task but it has provided comfort during market declines. I believe the Quantitative Easing (QE) Bull Market of the last 9-years is being replaced by a Quantitative Tightening (QT) Bear Market and “buy and hold” investors will not be happy the way QT ends. I believe global central banks have created enormous amounts of liquidity (QE) and artificially low interest rates in an effort to save us from a global collapse after the 2008 financial crisis. These same banks are now removing liquidity (QT) from the system and the stock market is feeling the pain. QE pushed stock prices far beyond their “normal” Price/Earnings (P/E) historical ranges and we are now seeing P/E multiples contract. However, they are still very stretched, so I expect more steep declines ahead. No one knows how long this QT induced stock selling will last but it might go on for longer than most people expect. Imagine how far the market will drop when we get some final “capitulation selling” as investors stare at their 401-k balances and the “fear selling – get me out at any price” unfolds! I would not be surprised to see a late “Christmas Crash” decline of 10% or more in one day as panic sellers seek relief. After some sort of “capitulation selling” occurs then I believe the market might be able to put in a trad-able bottom. However, one must remain vigilant and disciplined to take advantage of the opportunity should it occur. I am building my Watch List and patiently waiting for the next great opportunity to hopefully make us some money. Cash is not Trash and it still may not be too late to get out before the “next shoe drops”!

The Fed Fumbled and raised rates again and plans two more hikes in 2019! The S&P 500 had its worst week (>5%) in over a decade. The Dow is having its worst December (>12%) since the 1930s. The CBOE options put/call ratio spiked to 1.37 earlier last week yet did not produce an ounce of a bounce. Last Thursday’s pummeling jacked the put/call ratio to 1.82 which is at least a 5 + year high, yet the market still could not produce a rally. The government shut down and looming tariff “tiffs” are just a few “alibies” the market is trying to pin the decline on, but I believe this is typical Bear Market action. Oil is down over 40% since the stock market and oil peaked on October 3rd and the trend is still headed lower. The US is now a net exporter of oil and natural gas so clearly, we have more than enough supply to meet our needs. Combine an oversupply of oil with a global demand decline and you have the makings of lower oil prices ahead. I believe that we will have more self-driving electric vehicles in the near future and that might also decrease the demand for oil therefore driving oil prices even lower than we are accustomed to. Times are changing so we must recognize and adapt, or face Pride going before destruction. Proverbs 16:18

A Four-Letter Word no one is talking about…….FANG! FANG is an acronym for Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google that was very popular in the Bull Market. Since their price peaks, Facebook is down over 42%, Amazon is down over 32%, Netflix is down over 41% and Google is down over 22% and the trends are still pointing lower. Please remain humble and open to the idea that we may be transitioning from a “buy the dips” Bull Market into a “sell the rallies” Bear Market . The “market” is usually right, so we must question our convictions until we “understand” what the market is trying to tell us. I have been managing money since 1990 and I have learned that there are times to be invested and there are times to “go fishing”. I hear the fish are biting, are you “fishing or fighting” the tape?

The Good News is that “this too shall pass”! Bond yields may be falling because they do not think that the Fed will be able to raise rates next year due to a possible economic slowdown. I am watching the bond markets carefully because that is where I expect the next great opportunities will be found. The extreme wash-outs we are seeing in the Junk Bond and Floating Rate markets will likely produce some incredible buying opportunities for investors with patience and cash. I have witnessed these wash-out events many times in my career and once the “get me out at any price” indiscriminate selling is done, then the bargain hunters can swoop in for the kill. Floating Rates could become our next great buying opportunity. However, I will wait for the trend to bottom and turn higher before I consider a position. Remember, the “Trend is Your Friend”! If you are looking for a manager to invest your money like his very own, then I welcome you to join me as a shareholder in LIONX. I am looking forward to a very prosperous 2019 but we must be patient and let the trends develop! I never advise trying to catch a falling knife!

Check out where MorningStar has placed the Issachar Fund (WOW!) in the One Year and YTD rankings of the Tactical Allocation Category: https://Morningstar.com

Bottom line: I believe we are in a Bear Market, and this is not a time to be long any stock regardless of its dividend. Every time a stock pays a dividend, the price of the stock declines by the amount of the dividend so what are you really gaining? I am reading books on shorting and learning from people who know how to make money in a Bear Market. Price never lies, and the study of Price and Volume gives us the whole truth. Money generally consistently flows in the market during Bull Markets and money generally flows out during Bear Markets. What is your “line in the sand” threshold of pain where you say “enough is enough” and I am selling? Remember, no one cares more about your money than you do! Do what is best for you and your money regardless of what others might think or say.

Wishing Everyone a Very Merry Blessed Christmas and a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year!

(Portfolio holdings are subject to change at any time and should not be considered investment advice. There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns or avoid losses.)

Health Tip:
Studies show that eating a proper breakfast is one of the most positive things you can do if you are trying to lose weight.

Inspirational Quote:
Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you react to it.

Verse of the Day:
You will conceive and give birth to a son, and you are to call him Jesus. Luke 1:31
Jesus is the reason we celebrate Christmas!

The chart below shows the YTD total return of LIONX (red) verses S&P 500 (green). I believe that managing risk is the key to long-term success. Pictures are better than 1,000 words! Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Market Update: 12-17-18

LYONS MARKET UPDATE – Monday, December 17, 2018The S&P 500 Index is down about 1%, YTD!  From January 1, 2018 to September 20, the S&P 500 was up over 11% and now has a negative return for the year.  What caused this “week” to be so “weak” and lose 1.4%?  I believe potentially higher rates by the Fed and more trade tariffs are the main culprits for the market’s decline.  Historically, the market tries to discount today what it expects in the future and when the future seems cloudy, stock prices tend to decline.  PE ratios are now contracting after many years of PE-expansion due to “easy money” policies and the market is trying to work off this “excess” daily.  If the Fed raises rates on Wednesday (as expected) and does not communicate a “dovish” (lower rates) tone of “one & done”, then a “Christmas Crash” could be in the cards.  If the Fed does not raise rates, that may indicate the Fed sees slower economic growth ahead which would likely hurt corporate earnings.  Lower expected earnings would likely cause estimates to be adjusted downward which would likely cause stock prices to decline even further.  I believe whatever action the Fed takes or does not take on Wednesday could give the market an excuse to trade lower.  I am seeing methodical and systematic distribution by institutions as they sell into the rallies the algos create.  I believe we may be headed for a “Beary” Christmas and a not so Happy New Year! 

A Bear Market is when sellers overwhelm buyers!  We have been in a Bull Market (more buyers than sellers) since March 2009 and I believe the market is tired and due for a rest.  It might be hard to recognize a Bear Market when we see one because we may still have our Bull Market blinders on.  After the 2008 Financial Crisis, Global Central Banks began injecting liquidity (QE) into the system which pretty much created a global “tide that lifted all boats”.  The US Fed and European Central Bank (ECB) have confirmed that QE is officially over.  We are now in a global Quantitative Tightening (QT) cycle where Central Banks around the world are decreasing the size of their Balance Sheets and raising rates in a concerted effort to “normalize”, whatever that means.  I believe they create the mess, so we will have to rely on the them to get us out of the recessions they create.  I do not see a recession until maybe 2020 but I do see an economic slow-down in 2019 that could allow the Bear to claw its way much lower.  If you do not have an exit plan to manage your investments, now might be a good time to draw a line in the sand.  No one will ring a bell and tell you it is time to raise cash so do yourself a favor and pay attention to your bottom line every day.  Remember, no one cares more about your money than you do!

The Russell 2000 Index trends even lower!  The small-cap Russell 2000 Index peaked on August 31 which was one month before the three major indexes reached their market tops.  The Russell has now rolled over on lower lows and I expect the three indexes to follow suit shortly.  I do not see institutional support of former leading FANG stocks like: Facebook, Apple, Netflix and Google as they all trade below their 200-day moving averages.  In fact, I see lots of institutional distribution/selling in former leaders and that tells me that they are more interested in selling than buying.  I pay a lot of attention daily to big volume movers up and down because that is a sign that the “smart money” is up to something that I might need to heed.  Junk Bonds and Floating Rate Bonds are also telling me that risk is high, and the bottom has not been formed so the worst may not be over.

Cash is a Position I am comfortable with for now!  I do not have any exposure, long or short at this time in the Fund but I am “paper trading” a few short positions to hopefully gain an “edge” of conviction.  Sometimes you can win by not losing.  I have the freedom to invest wherever I see opportunity and currently the risk is too high on the long side.  I am studying and reading books on the Bear Market because that is where I believe we are, until proven otherwise.  There are a few stocks that have been doing well in this environment, but I believe if/when the market takes another leg down these “few” stocks will fall hard and fast.  The potential small reward higher on the long side is not worth the risk of a steep price decline, in my opinion.  My advice is to keep your powder dry, so you can live to invest another day!  (Portfolio holdings are subject to change at any time and should not be considered investment advice. There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns or avoid losses.)     

Bottom line: I maintain a “flexible approach” to invest wherever I see opportunity and I eat my own cooking.  Risk appears Very High so Cash is where I sit until I get more conviction.  I am currently focused on the short side patiently waiting for a lower risk opportunity.  Weak sentiment is Trumping the strong fundamentals.  Liquidity is shrinking, and stock prices are falling.  The  market does not care what we think.  It will do what it does.  We all need to remain humble and teachable if we want to win in the end.  Have your stocks been naughty or nice?     

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the prospectus, which can be obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting https://www.LIONX.net.  The prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC.Horizon Capital Management Inc, Inc is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.Important Risk Information.  
Mutual Funds involve risks including the possible loss of principal.The Fund may hold cash positions when the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions.  The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove to be incorrect and may not produce the desired results.Investments cannot be made in an index. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged composite of 500 large capitalization companies. This index is widely used by professional investors as a performance benchmark for large- cap stocks.
Russell 2000® Index is an unmanaged index that is a widely recognized indicator of small capitalization company performance.  It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership.
Long: Buying a security such as a stock, commodity or currency, with the expectation that the asset will rise in value.
Short: Any sale that is completed by the delivery of a security borrowed by the seller.  Short sellers assume they will be able to buy the stock at a lower amount that the price at which they sold short.
NLD Review Code: 9123-NLD-12/17/2018

Market Update: 12-10-18

The Issachar Fund (LIONX) is on Defense with 100% in Cash! I believe this is a trader’s market and not an investor’s market. I consider myself an investor who sometimes trades when I feel the opportunity outweighs the potential risk. I wrote the LIONX Prospectus to allow me the flexibility to be long, short or anywhere in between. I did not want to manage my money inside LIONX with one hand tied behind my back, so I designed LIONX with the ability to invest in pretty much any asset class at any time. In my opinion, market risk is high, and the S&P 500 may be headed lower to test the February lows. The S&P 500 ended Friday resting on the October 29th and November 23rd support lows, so I am expecting a bounce which might provide an opportunity to get short.

This could be the worst quarter for the S&P 500 Index in 7-years, since 2011! The market seems to be concerned that the Fed will raise rates next week which could potentially cause slower economic growth leading to lower earnings and stock prices. The Fed has raised rates eight times in the last 2.5 years in an effort to tame inflation that we have yet to see. If the Fed does not raise rates next week, the market may conclude that the Fed sees economic trouble ahead and institutions may sell en masse creating fear and panic. If the Fed raises rates next week, the market may conclude that as the straw that breaks the camel’s back. Either way, I believe that we have entered a Bear Market where “buy and hold” and “buy the dip” investors will eventually get mauled by a vicious Bear that has been stalking the Bulls for 9 years.

Santa Claws away from a Christmas Crash? PE ratios are stretched and trading near 5-year highs for most leading stocks that I follow. The Cyclically Adjusted PE ratio (CAPE) is more over valued than it was in 1929 but remains below the spike it achieved in the 2000 Dot Com Bubble. All major indexes are trading below their 200 day moving averages which is a major red flag. Junk Bonds are in a steep down-trend indicating to me that risk of default is similar to the risk we experienced in February when the S&P 500 dropped 10.10% from top to bottom. Senior Loans (short-term corporate paper) dropped about 1% from top to bottom in February. However, Senior Loans have already dropped about 2.5% since November 7th so I am concluding that risk is extremely high of another sharp decline in the S&P 500. Instead of a Santa Clause Rally, we may get a Christmas Crash!

Gold is now in an up-trend! I am watching Gold closely for an entry position should things play out as I expect. There seems to be a flight to safety in US 20-year Treasury Bonds as money flees stocks. Gold may be benefiting as investors look for places to hide should the Bear start to growl a little louder. Gold has not been a profitable position in the last 9-years but that may be changing if fear overtakes greed. Our greatest opportunities may be in Gold and on the short side of the market. Time will tell.

Check out where Morning Star has placed LIONX in the Tactical Allocation Category: https://Morningstar.com

Bottom line: I am independent and flexible, so I can be bullish or bearish. Currently, I am bearish and looking for low-risk opportunities expecting stock prices to decline. I do not intend to take on risk that I cannot manage. Therefore, I plan to tread lightly seeking opportunities as they present themselves.

(Portfolio holdings are subject to change at any time and should not be considered investment advice. There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns or avoid losses.)

Health Tip:
Learn to do stretching exercises when you wake up. It boosts circulation and digestion, and eases back pain.

Inspirational Quote:
You have as much laughter as you have faith.

Verse of the Day:
Now faith is confidence in what we hope for and assurance about what we do not see. Hebrews 11:1

The chart below shows the YTD total return of LIONX (red) verses S&P 500 (green). I believe that managing risk is the key to long-term success. Notice how less volatile LIONX is for a similar return! Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Market Update: 12-03-18

The Issachar Fund (LIONX) invested in four stocks (2% each) in the Health Care and Cloud related industries on Thursday (29th) and has 92% in Cash.  If these starter positions do not perform as I expect or the market rolls over, I will not hesitate to go back to 100% Cash. Cash is Not Trash….Cash is a Position! I would rather be in Cash instead of potentially losing money. Many mutual funds are required to stay fully-invested but LIONX can go to Cash or net short at the managers discretion. I built LIONX around what I wanted for my money. My thinking was that other investors would want me to manage their money just like I manage my own money in LIONX. I tried to remove all conflicts of interest, so your best interests line up with my best interests. My focus is on our bottom line every day!

The Fed hit the pause button on Wednesday! The market was discounting another ¼ point rate increase from the Fed in December. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell eased those fears on Wednesday and the NASDAQ rallied almost 3%! The futures markets are now indicating a rate increase for December and only one ¼ point rate increase in 2019. This is in stark contrast to the three or so ¼ rate increases the futures market WAS forecasting. Obviously, the market and Trump were not pleased with the path of rate increases Powell and company were on. However, now everyone seems to be content with a slowing (dovish) of rate increases. It could be argued that Trump had his foot on the gas while Powell had his foot on the brakes and the market was confused. The market may have just put in an under-cut and rally bottom that will allow money to flow back into the market from a few defensive areas. My fingers and toes are crossed as I keep building my Watch List of potential new market leaders.

Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) declared Wednesday’s rally a Follow-Through Day (FTD) indicating, what could be considered, a “green light” for investors. However, the last FTD (Nov. 7) failed on Nov. 20th as the NASDAQ under-cut its Oct. 29 lows. IBD says that every market bottom has a follow-through but not all follow-throughs result in lasting advances.

He said She (Xi) said: 90-Day Trade War Cease-Fire with China! Trump signed a new trade deal with Mexico and Canada to abolish the seemingly unfair practices of the NAFTA agreement on Saturday. It has to get approval from the House and the new Democratic majority will likely veto it in early 2019. Also, at the G-20 Summit Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to a 90-day delay of the January 1st tariffs of 25% (from 10%) on $200 billion of Chinese imports and avoid escalating the China trade war. This 90-day truce should provide a short-term boost for the US and Chinese stock markets. I cannot imagine Trump wanting to start a “Cold War” with China. A Cold War would likely hurt Trump’s 2020 re-election chances especially if we go into a recession or should we experience rising unemployment due to higher tariffs. I believe Trump is a very smart business man and he likes to win. I expect him to do what is necessary to put America in a position that will allow him to serve eight years as President.

The market is eager to put out the Cookies and Milk for Santa! However, we are late in this 9-year bull market that is extended and choppy to say the least. The Junk Bond market is telling me that risk is still high as junk bonds continue to trade below their down-trending 50-day moving average. Gas prices at the pump have declined dramatically and that keeps more money in the pockets of consumers to spend on Santa. My best guess is that we may rally into the New Year, but I will follow charts and let the market “show me the money!

Bottom Line: I am mildly invested looking to add more positions should I get confirmation that this rally has legs to stand on. I continue to build a Ready list of Leading stocks in Leading industries that I believe are poised to break out of sound base patterns. However, I would rather miss an opportunity than lose money, so I am prone to error on the side of caution.

(Portfolio holdings are subject to change at any time and should not be considered investment advice. There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns or avoid losses.)

My Heart-Felt Prayers go out to the Bush Family in the loss of our 41st President George H.W. Bush who passed away at the age of 94. A great man who served and finished well! Markets will be closed on Wednesday for a National Day of Mourning.

Health Tip:
Sugary drinks are among the most fattening things you can put into your body.

Inspirational Quote:
The best and most beautiful things in the world cannot be seen or even touched – they must be felt with the heart.

Verse of the Day:
For the wages of sin is death, but the gift of God is eternal life in Christ Jesus our Lord. Romans 6:23

The chart below shows the YTD total return of LIONX (red) verses S&P 500 (green). I believe that managing risk is the key to long-term success. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Market Update: 11-26-18

I am patiently sitting in Cash (100%) waiting for the next opportunity. The Fund’s portfolio went to all Cash on October 4th after my sell stops were triggered and have only been lightly invested (25%) for about three days since then. I believe market risk is high, and I am more concerned with the return “of my money” instead of a return “on my money”. The S&P 500 Index is trading near its low established on 10/29/18. However, the NASDAQ is trading near it April lows, so I would not be surprised to see the S&P slide into its May lows of potential support which would be another 2% decline. The trend is certainly down, and earnings have been decelerating. I believe we are due for a bounce, so the next few days could tell us if we have found support or we could be entering into a Bear Market. I am now in the Bear camp unless some type of positive catalyst is able to establish a bottom. I believe it would take something like the Fed deciding to NOT raise rates in December or Trump cutting a Tariff deal with China to possibly stop the bleeding and turn this market around. Even that may not be enough to stop the institutional selling that I have been witnessing and that is what I am concerned about. Knowing when to get out of the market is just as important as know when to get in. However, it is now what you know that counts, it is what you DO that makes a difference. (Portfolio holdings are subject to change at any time and should be considered investment advice. There is no guarantee that any investment product or strategy will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns or avoid losses.)

Hope is not a Strategy. I believe every investor should plan their trades and trade their plan in order to successfully traverse the ups and downs of the market. Being independent and flexible allows me to know the target entry/exit points and volume criteria I want to see before I invest. I try to always have an exit strategy in case the trade does not go as expected. Taking a position without good fundamental and technical reasons and instead “hoping” that it goes up just because I like the story is not prudent in my opinion. Hope investing can be very dangerous because it tends to feed on one’s emotions. Fear and greed are two powerful emotions we should all learn how to manage, or it could damage our portfolios. Always be prepared with a plan for managing your risk and execute your plan.

Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) current outlook is “Market in Correction”.  Historically, IBD has a pretty good record of keeping investors in the major advances and avoiding the steep market declines. IBD has a lot of online tools to help the individual and institutional investors and I value their services like Market Smith, Leader Board and e-IBD (digital newspaper). They also have archives of webinars and weekly market recaps that I have found useful. William J. O’Neil founded IBD and the CAN SLIM system to help investors succeed in managing and growing their money. I am not affiliated with IBD nor am I compensated by them. I am just sharing what I am using hoping it somehow helps you.

Oil is down about 33% since 10/3/18! Oil has been on a slippery slope as more supply comes on the market and global demand appears to be declining. If global demand for oil is truly decreasing, that might be one of the reasons the market is down about 10% since oil peaked. Germany who leads the E.U. economically reported its worst growth in nearly 6 years at a recessionary -0.2%. It is very interesting to note that oil prices peaked near the same time the market peaked and I do not believe that was a coincidence. The dollar has also rallied almost 4% since the middle of September which also puts pressure on the price of oil. Junk Bonds are also confirming to me that “risk is off” and default risk is a concern for junk bond holders. Junk bonds have declined about 4% since 10/1/18 and that is a major “red flag” to me. Remember, the Fed is no longer in a “QE” Expansion mode but a “QT” Tightening mode and as they drain liquidity stock prices tend to decline. Declining oil prices could be like a tax-cut to the consumer allowing us to have more pocket money to spend for Christmas. Lower oil prices could be a back-door way to influence the Fed to not raise rates in their efforts to tame inflation. Bid to cover ratios for 30yr Treasuries is at its lowest point since the 2008 crisis!

Bottom line: I believe risk is high and not deserving of my hard-earned-money. However, the more I think I know, the more close-minded I become so I try to remain humble and have a teachable spirit. In order to be successful in the market, you need to think independently and admit when you are wrong. Otherwise, you run the risk of learning things the hard way!

PS: Bitcoin has declined about 80% from the $20,000 peak in December to less than $4,000 on 11/23/18.

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund is contained in the prospectus, which can be obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting www.lionx.net. The prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC.
Horizon Capital Management Inc, Inc is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC

Important Risk Information
Mutual Funds involve risks including the possible loss of principal.
The Fund may hold cash positions when the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses, or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions. The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove to be incorrect and may not produce the desired results.  NLD Review Code: 9073-NLD-11/26/2018