Category - Weekly Updates

Market Update: 01-10-22

Bear Market Begins!    

The Issachar Fund is 100% in Cash! Higher P/E stock leaders of 2021 have been under heavy selling pressure as the “smart” money rotates into the lower P/E defensive names because the money must go somewhere. Every new year, big institutional money tries to align their portfolios with what they expect to happen in the economy. I believe they are repositioning for a higher inflation slower growth economy known as “stagflation.” The last stagflation period was in the 1970s, and the market appears to be on high alert to another difficult period for stock and bond investors. Prospectus binds some mutual funds to stay fully invested in aggressive growth stocks, and I believe they may have the biggest drawdowns/losses in 2022. The “go anywhere” funds like Issachar can adapt quickly to this rotation out of growth into value. I have my eyes on a few stocks waiting for proper entries. My watch list is chock full of value – higher dividend stocks which are very different from the “growthier” names we owned since the COVID low in March of 2020. I am a risk manager, and risk is rising, so Cash is a good position for now. (There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns, or avoid losses.)      

The market had a “fearful” selloff on Friday after the weak jobs number thinking the Fed may be behind the curve to address inflation. The 10-Year Treasury yield is now trading near at its highest levels since the pandemic started in March 2020. The Fed has not “tapped the brakes” yet on “tapering” its bond purchases as its balance sheet is still near an all-time high of $8.7 trillion. The Fed created over $4.6 trillion since March of 2020, and a lot of that money ended up in the stock market. If the Fed reduces its balance sheet too fast, stocks could see even more heavy selling.

I believe we are now in a Bear Market! We could be near a phase where newer investors’ “weaker hands” capitulate as they realize that stocks don’t always go up. Stocks have done well over time, but there are periods where market losses will test every investor’s threshold of pain. The crypto and NFT market is getting crushed as many “believers” struggle with forced margin call selling. I believe the market changed after the Fed minutes were released. They are now more concerned about inflation and less concerned with employment since wages have risen. Rising wages typically lead to higher inflation, and the Fed normally fights inflation by raising rates. Rising rates usually do not bode well for growth stock investors or bondholders.       

Bottom Line: Issachar is in Cash while risk continues to rise. I believe the Fed created the inflation we are experiencing, and they will try to slowly “prick” the bubble they created. The market is concerned that we may be entering a stagflation period like the 1970s, which was not good for stock or bond investors. I am stalking lower P/E stocks for proper buy points, but I have no buys yet. I am also looking at stocks to short. A long/short strategy could be the perfect combination for 2022. Thank You for Your Continued Trust and Business, and I appreciate every one of you!  

May the God of hope fill you with all joy and peace in believing, so that by the power of the Holy Spirit you may abound in hope. Romans 15:13

Links: Fact Sheet Performance Blogs Strategy My Story Docs BRI/ESG

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the Prospectus, obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting www.IssacharFund.com. The Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC. Horizon Capital Management Inc. (HCM) is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.

Important Risk Information: Mutual Funds involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. An investment in the Fund may not be appropriate for all investors. The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly, and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions. The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value, and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove incorrect and may not produce the desired results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Ratings are only one form of Fund performance and should not be used as the sole consideration in making an investment decision. Opinions expressed are subject to change and are not guaranteed and should not be considered investment advice. For more information regarding the fund, including current performance, please visit www.IssacharFund.com.   Review Code: 5038-NLD-1/10/22.

Market Update: 01-03-22

Lessons Learned!   The Issachar Fund is slightly invested and optimistic! The market looks healthy and poised to move higher, but there may be some initial new year volatility as big money repositions itself for 2022. Money has been flowing out of the higher P/E names and into the defensive stocks like utilities and consumer staples. This tells me that the market may be anticipating slower growth and higher inflation in 2022. Issachar holds positions in the Agriculture, Building, Chips, Medical, Real Estate, Software, and Telecom Sectors as they appear to be under accumulation. I plan to follow the smart money by analyzing price and volume charts looking for stocks with increasing sales, earnings, and profit margins. Most institutional money must stay fully invested, so I plan to follow the smart money in the bull markets and avoid the life-changing losses during the bear markets. If you know someone who might benefit from my philosophy, please forward this to them or contact me. (There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns, or avoid losses.)            

Issachar had a great 2020, and into April 2021, it was looking like 2021 was going to be another stellar year! However, I let my guard down and did not cut losses quick enough; lesson learned. The February to April losses taught me valuable lessons that I vowed never to repeat. I drew a line in the sand and refused to go lower, which is pretty much what has happened since April. A 10% loss requires an 11% gain to break even, and I will do my best to get us back in the black in 2022. No one controls or knows what the market will return, but I can manage the risk I take. When the market is not rewarding me for taking risk, I plan to obey my time-tested system and do what it takes to get in sync with the market. All my investable assets are in Issachar, so I have a huge incentive to keep us going in the right direction.           

The Fed reduced its balance sheet by $33 billion last week, but liquidity is still robust! The Fed says it is concerned about the inflation it has created, but let’s see if they do anything. I suspect they will keep the money spigot open until something breaks, then it may be too late. By the way, there are now over 14,000 cryptocurrencies in circulation. Bitcoin and the NFT “metaverse” still do not interest me. It reminds me of the tulip-bulb mania era of the early 1600s, looking for a pin to prick the bubble. I do not believe we are there yet, but it could happen fast if the Fed decides to fight inflation. Could this be a year for Gold as the dollar turns south? I am a cautious bull for now.   

Bottom Line: Issachar is lightly invested in stocks with good earnings, sales, and margins that appear to be under accumulation, and I plan to get more invested if the uptrend continues. I have learned valuable lessons from my 2021 mistakes, and I have new rules to cover those errors and get us back on track. I am expecting 2022 to be a great and prosperous year for Issachar! I pray that you have a Happy & Healthy New Year and Thank You Again for Your Continued Trust and Business!

For I am the Lord your God who takes hold of your right hand and says to you, do not fear. Isaiah 41:13

Links: Fact Sheet Performance Blogs Strategy My Story Docs BRI/ESG

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the Prospectus, obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting www.IssacharFund.com. The Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC. Horizon Capital Management Inc. (HCM) is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.

Important Risk Information: Mutual Funds involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. An investment in the Fund may not be appropriate for all investors. The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly, and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions. The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value, and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove incorrect and may not produce the desired results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Ratings are only one form of Fund performance and should not be used as the sole consideration in making an investment decision. Opinions expressed are subject to change and are not guaranteed and should not be considered investment advice. For more information regarding the fund, including current performance, please visit www.IssacharFund.com.   Review Code: 5748-NLD-1/3/2022.

Market Update: 12-27-21

Santa Rally? 

The Issachar Fund is slightly invested! Risk has declined as the S&P 500 index makes a new high, so I purchased a few stocks. Volume was light, but stocks were setting up in the chips and chemicals, so I am listening to the charts. Junk bonds are also trading at all-time highs, which means that investors still have a risk appetite. Yields are on the rise but not alarming while the dollar moves sideways, so that gives me a sense of reduced risk to dip my toe in the water. If these positions do what I expect, I will buy more, but I could quickly go back on defense if my expectations are not met. This week and two days into the new year are known as the Santa Rally, a good time to be invested. Since November, it feels like the market wants to break out of this trading range, so now would be a good time to test what I see in the charts. The indexes are looking constructive because of a few big names, but there are still a ton of broken stock charts beneath the surface. The Fed is on our side, and that gives me the conviction to take a baby step with plans to get more invested if it works out as planned. (There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns, or avoid losses.)    

The Fed increased its balance sheet by $34 billion last week to another all-time high! The Fed’s total assets now equal 38% of the US’s GDP versus the European Central Bank’s 82% and the Bank of England’s 133%, so we are not as bad as our neighbors. I expected the Fed’s balance sheet to decline, but they are still creating new money out of “thin air” buying bonds to keep our rates near zero. If the Fed keeps the liquidity flowing, this new money will flow into the stock market and help many boats stay afloat. However, stopping the printing presses or raising rates as they promised, the hangovers will not be fun for those who chose to ignore the warnings and keep drinking. That is why I dance with one eye on the exit. I have seen many bear markets and recessions in my last 31 years of managing money, and I believe the next one could be the worst of all. Buy and hold will work until it doesn’t. Managing risk will always work.     

Bottom Line: Issachar is lightly invested with plans to buy more if my expectations are met. I like the chips, real estate, agriculture, building, and telecom market areas as they appear to be under accumulation. Junk bonds say that risk has declined, so it is time to add exposure. The charts will tell me what to do next if we are rewarded. Thanks for trusting me with your hard-earned money, and I promise always to do my best. I hope you had a Very Merry Christmas, and now I want to wish you a Prosperous and Healthy New Year!      

Trust in the Lord with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding;in all your ways submit to him and he will make your paths straight. Proverbs 3:5-6

Links: Fact Sheet Performance Blogs Strategy My Story Docs BRI/ESG

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the Prospectus, obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting www.IssacharFund.com. The Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC.  Horizon Capital Management Inc. (HCM) is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.

Important Risk Information: Mutual Funds involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. An investment in the Fund may not be appropriate for all investors. The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly, and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions. The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value, and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove incorrect and may not produce the desired results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Ratings are only one form of Fund performance and should not be used as the sole consideration in making an investment decision. Opinions expressed are subject to change and are not guaranteed and should not be considered investment advice. For more information regarding the fund, including current performance, please visit www.IssacharFund.com.   Review Code: 5742-NLD-12/27/2021.

Market Update: 12-20-21

Deflation?   Cash is a Position! 

The Issachar Fund is in Cash! The indexes are masking the damage beneath the surface as former leading stocks come under heavy selling pressure. We have been in a higher-risk environment where weeks of gains can be erased in a day, so I prefer to sit on the sidelines and patiently wait for my next opportunity. The Fed is concerned about the inflation they created, so they announced a more rapid “taper” and some 2022 rate increases on Wednesday, and the market rallied. However, on Thursday, the Bank of England announced it was raising its key interest rate by 0.25%, and the NASDAQ reversed lower below its 50-DMA. Remember, central banks have been printing “free” money since the bear market in 2008, so raising rates could halt economic expansion. I believe the market is trying to discount slower growth combined with inflation which could lead to deflation. If the market were anticipating a deflationary environment, I would expect to see consumer staple stocks (soap, toothpaste, toiletries) outperform consumer discretionary stocks like Home Depot and Starbucks, and they are! Since most of the big institutional money must stay fully invested, maybe they are moving to more defensive staple names because they anticipate a collapsing economy? Risk is high, and profit potential is low so winning by not losing sounds good for now. (There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns, or avoid losses.)    

The Fed increased its balance sheet by $92 billion last week to an all-time high of $8.8 trillion! While the Fed says it will curtail its bond purchases, its actions speak volumes. If the Fed were serious about curtailing inflation, they would be reducing their balance sheet, but they are expanding it instead. It is no wonder why we don’t trust politicians and government officials who say one thing and do the opposite.  

Bottom Line: Cash is a position, and that is where we are, for now. The Fed is sending mixed signals to fight the inflation they created, so I am looking for stocks to buy, but the greater opportunity may be on the short side. I plan to let the charts tell me where to invest, so patience is vital. Thank you for being patient with me, and I promise to do my best to honor God with all I have. I want to wish you and your loved ones a Very Merry & Blessed Christmas!     

For God so loved the world, that he gave his only Son, that whoever believes in him should not perish but have eternal life.  John 3:16

Links: Fact Sheet Performance Blogs Strategy My Story Docs BRI/ESG

Ed Griffin (91) is the most intelligent man alive today that I know, and I recommend his books! 

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the Prospectus, obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting www.IssacharFund.com. The Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC.  Horizon Capital Management Inc. (HCM) is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.

Important Risk Information: Mutual Funds involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. An investment in the Fund may not be appropriate for all investors. The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly, and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions. The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value, and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove incorrect and may not produce the desired results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Ratings are only one form of Fund performance and should not be used as the sole consideration in making an investment decision. Opinions expressed are subject to change and are not guaranteed and should not be considered investment advice. For more information regarding the fund, including current performance, please visit www.IssacharFund.com.   Review Code: 5739-NLD-12/20/2021.

Market Update: 12-13-21

Market Rallies as Inflation Rises!

The Issachar Fund is about 40% invested in the Building, Chips, Electronics, Real Estate, and Software Sectors. It appears the market is not scared of COVID or higher inflation as it flirts with new all-time highs. We are in a seasonally favorable time to invest in stocks, so my bias is to get more invested. However, there are a lot of former leading stocks that the weight of heavy short selling has crushed, so I am treading carefully. The good news is cash is still sloshing around trying to find a new home, and the real estate sector seems to be under accumulation. Hard assets like real estate have been a store of value in periods of higher inflation, so I am looking for opportunities in this new normal “higher-priced” economic cycle. Gold and Bitcoin have not been the “go-to” haven expected during this inflationary cycle. The dollar is still relatively strong due to our higher-yielding Treasury bonds, so foreigners are finding better values here in the US. Junk bonds have recently seen a lot of above-average volume-selling, which means that investors have lost some of their risk appetites. If inflation is the “new normal,” I expect rates to rise, which would not be good for bondholders. The equity market may see a lot of new capital from income investors seeking higher yields as inflation erodes bond prices. I am cautiously dancing at the party with an eye on the exit seeking to capture most of the upside and avoid life-changing losses. (There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns, or avoid losses.)    

The Fed increased its balance sheet by $14 billion last week. I expected the Fed to continue “tapering” its bond purchases, but their balance sheet said the opposite. It is not what they say; it is what they do that matters. The Fed had created over $4.5 trillion since March of the COVID Crash in 2020, and a lot of that money has found its way into the stock market. This kind of liquidity injection created the inflation that everyone is now experiencing, so now the Fed will try to “tame” inflation by slowly shrinking its balance sheet, so they say. Jay Powell’s second term has not been “confirmed” yet, so he will likely keep liquidity flowing in the right direction. If Powell wants to keep his job, he will probably do all he can to appease his “boss,” Joe Biden. In the meantime, the lower-income people are typically hit the hardest in an inflationary cycle. Term limits would fix a lot of our problems.    

Bottom Line: Issachar is partially invested in leading stocks that appear to be under accumulation. Inflation has arrived, and new sectors have taken the lead, so that is where I am focused. Money does not appear to be heading for the exits but instead finding a new home. Money seems to be leaving the bond market as higher inflation breeds higher rates, so equities have become the haven. Gold and Crypto Currencies do not look attractive currently.     

But those who hope in the Lord will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31  

Links: Fact Sheet Performance Blogs Strategy My Story Docs BRI/ESG

Ed Griffin (91) is the most intelligent man alive today that I know, and I recommend his books! 

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the Prospectus, obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting www.IssacharFund.com. The Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC.  Horizon Capital Management Inc. (HCM) is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.

Important Risk Information: Mutual Funds involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. An investment in the Fund may not be appropriate for all investors. The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly, and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions. The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value, and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove incorrect and may not produce the desired results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Ratings are only one form of Fund performance and should not be used as the sole consideration in making an investment decision. Opinions expressed are subject to change and are not guaranteed and should not be considered investment advice. For more information regarding the fund, including current performance, please visit www.IssacharFund.com.   Review Code: 5728-NLD-12/13/2021.

Market Update: 12-06-21

Market Declines as Fed Tapers!
The Issachar Fund went to 100% Cash on Black Friday, one day after Thanksgiving, as risk raised its ugly head! The market controls/provides the return we receive, so when I am not rewarded for taking risk, I prefer to sit on the sidelines and wait for conditions to change. Issachar is not your typical mutual fund. Issachar has hedge fund abilities which allow it to be long, short, or anywhere in between. The media blames the recent market decline on the latest “scarient” called Omicron, but I believe the market is in a short-term downtrend due to the Fed action. The Fed told us that inflation was “transitory,” but now Jay Powell says that inflation may be with us for a while, so they may now try and tame the very inflation they created. Now that Biden announced he would reappoint Powell, rates may drift higher, causing losses for stock and bond investors. Suppose the Fed tries to unwind inflation too fast. In that case, they could throw the economy into a recession, and the bull market created from excess Fed liquidity could turn into a liquidity squeezed bear market. Junk bonds are trading below their 50-day moving average, indicating a higher-risk, lower-reward environment, so I plan to sit this one out. (There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns, or avoid losses.)    

The Fed decreased its balance sheet by $31 billion last week as the Fed started to taper! TheFed said they would “taper” their bond purchases, and they have begun. Remember the old saying, “don’t fight the Fed” well, I believe it has merit this time, so I plan to stay on defense until volatility/risk settles down. Margin debt was near extreme levels, and margin calls were being issued, which caused good companies to suddenly become bad stocks. The Santa Rally I was expecting into year-end may end up being a “bounce” off an oversold condition, so the potential reward is not worth the volatility risk, in my opinion. Let’s keep our powder dry so we can live to fight another day.         

Bottom Line: Cash is a position, and that is where we are for now. The market is not rewarding risk. Therefore, I plan to stay on the sidelines until conditions change. The market is in a short-term downtrend defined by a series of lower lows, so I will continue to build my watch list of potential candidates. Now that Powell will be reappointed, his voice tone changed. Powell may now want to fight the very inflation he created instead of targeting unemployment. No baby likes his pacifier taken away, so we will soon see how the market reacts to a smaller Fed balance sheet. The Fed holds the liquidity key, and the market loves liquidity.  

Do not be anxious about anything, but in every situation, by prayer and petition, with Thanksgiving, present your requests to God. And the peace of God, which transcends all understanding, will guard your hearts and your minds in Christ Jesus. Philippians 4:6-7

Links: Fact Sheet Performance Blogs Strategy My Story Docs BRI/ESG

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the Prospectus, obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting www.IssacharFund.com. The Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC.  Horizon Capital Management Inc. (HCM) is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.

Important Risk Information: Mutual Funds involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. An investment in the Fund may not be appropriate for all investors. The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly, and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions. The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value, and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove incorrect and may not produce the desired results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Ratings are only one form of Fund performance and should not be used as the sole consideration in making an investment decision. Opinions expressed are subject to change and are not guaranteed and should not be considered investment advice. For more information regarding the fund, including current performance, please visit www.IssacharFund.com.   Review Code: 5721-NLD-12/6/2021.