Category - Weekly Updates

Market Update: 12-02-19

The Issachar Fund (LIONX), is about 98% invested in stocks and sitting tight!  I added about 8% more in individual stocks last week.  I am buying stocks that have produced three consecutive quarters of increases in sales and earnings and forecasting double digit earnings for next year.  I remain bullish as the market appears to be rotating out of one sector into another digesting recent gains.  Rotation has been a way for the market to digest stocks that have recent price advances into stocks that have been consolidating.  The market looks healthy and constructive as it may be discounting the potential negative news of China trade, impeachment and the Hong Kong unrest.  If the market changes character, I reserve the right to change my opinion, but for now I am all in!  LIONX is a BRI, Trend Following, Liquid-Alternative Mutual Fund that is Actively Managing  Risk like a Hedge Fund seeking low-correlation/beta/risk to the stock indexes.  When my Strategy identifies a low risk environment, I seek to invest in junk bonds/growth stocks with strong technical chart patterns and sound fundamentals.  During high risk environments I seek to avoid Life-Changing losses.  The Issachar Fund seeks moderate capital appreciation consistent with capital preservation.  The Fund Adviser (HCM) is Celebrating 30 Years of Actively Managing Risk!  (Portfolio holdings are subject to change at any time and should not be considered investment advice.) 

Quantitative Easing (QE) appears to be still alive!  The Fed claims that what they are doing is “Not QE”.  However, I believe that they are still printing money out of thin air and that sounds like QE to me.  The Fed increased its balance sheet by $162 billion in October and that was the greatest monthly increase since 2008.  Since 9-11-19, the Fed’s balance sheet has increased by $270 billion which implies about $5.8 billion of daily liquidity being added to the market!  This $5 billion or so of additional liquidity has to go somewhere and I believe a lot of this extra cash is being used to sure up stock prices.  Who knows why the Fed feels the need to expand its balance sheet at such a rapid pace?  I believe Fed Chairman, Jay Powell, messed up last December and may have contributed to the Christmas Crash where the market fell over 19%.  I believe he is now trying to fix his mistake of raising rates too fast in what I believe to be a weak economy by adding liquidity to the market which tends to lift all boats.  Is the Fed doing this to get Trump reelected?  I believe Jay Powell wants Trump to be a two-term president and I believe this will help America in the long-run.  The market does not seem to care why the Fed has ramped up its bond buying program, it just keeps steady plodding along it’s merry way. 

Imagine having to invest $5.8 billion per day!  Where would you put that kind of money to work?  I would not invest it in bonds because I believe yields are NOT headed lower which would benefit bond prices.  I expect yields to be flat at best over the short term.  Fed futures is predicting a zero % chance of a ¼ point rate cut and a 4% chance of a rate increase at their next meeting in about 10 days.  If I had $5.8 billion per day to invest, I would invest it in what I believe are companies with solid fundamentals and sound technical chart patterns of which I am finding plenty to choose from.  Keep in mind that the Fed said it plans to do about $60 billion of bond purchases every month at least until March 2020!  When the Fed buys bonds, the bond holders now have cash to invest and it has to go somewhere.  I believe the net effect of the Fed expanding its balance sheet increases asset prices and that is why I remain bullish and optimistic in the short run.             

Junk bond trend, sideways!  The junk bond average appears to be struggling as the uptrend has slowed a bit, but I am not that concerned.  I expect junk bonds to consolidate recent gains and resume trending higher even though I do not expect rates to decline.  If the economy is picking up steam, then I would expect junk bond prices to rise as they move away from “junk bond” status into a more favorable “investment grade” status.  Christmas is right around the corner and I believe the market could be gearing up for a Santa Clause Rally to erase last year’s Christmas Crash.      

Bottom line:  I believe that “Federal Reserve adjustment” is the main driving force behind the market’s new highs, and we should enjoy the ride while it lasts.  I am very bullish on the market but that could change if the market does the unexpected.  By the Grace of God, I will do my best to ride the wave and avoid life-changing loses before the wave crashes.                     


Here is a link to the latest
3rd Quarter Issachar Fund Fact Sheet

Member organizations: KA, NACFC, CIF, OSC, NAAIM and here is a podcast link to my interview on The Real FBI.       

Biblical Responsible Investing (BRI) is the term used to describe the activities of Christian investors who purposely align their investment choices to support their Christian beliefs. The Fund is ESG (Environmental Social Governance) conscious, pro-life and pro-family and will not invest in securities with a negative InspireImpact Score.     

Steady plodding brings prosperity; hasty speculation brings poverty.  Proverbs 21:5

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the prospectus, which can be obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting https://www.LIONX.net.  The prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC.   Horizon Capital Management Inc, Inc is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.  Important Risk Information.  Mutual Funds involve risks including the possible loss of principal.  The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions.  If the Fund’s uses hedging instruments at the wrong time or judges market conditions incorrectly, the hedge might be unsuccessful, reduce the Fund’s investment return, or create a loss.  The use of leverage can magnify the effects of changes in value of the Fund and could cause investors in the Fund to lose more money in adverse environments.  The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove to be incorrect and may not produce the desired results.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  If the Fund’s uses hedging instruments at the wrong time or judges market conditions incorrectly, the hedge might be unsuccessful, reduce the Fund’s investment return, or create a loss.  The use of leverage can magnify the effects of changes in value of the Fund and could cause investors in the Fund to lose more money in adverse environments. Quantitative easing (QE) is a monetary policy whereby a central bank buys predetermined amounts of government bonds or other financial assets in order to inject liquidity directly into the economy.  NLD Review Code: 7315-NLD-12/2/2019

Market Update: 11-18-19

The Issachar Fund (LIONX), is about 70% invested in stocks and seeking more opportunities!  I added about 30% more individual stocks last week.  I am buying stocks that have produced three consecutive quarters of increases in sales and earnings and forecasting double digit earnings for next year.  The market has been rewarding growth stocks and this is the kind of market I like to invest in.  I am bullish and I hope to increase our exposure as more opportunities present themselves.  LIONX is a BRI, Trend Following, Liquid-Alternative Mutual Fund that is Actively Managing  Risk like a Hedge Fund seeking low-correlation/beta/risk to the stock indexes.  When my Strategy identifies a low risk environment, I seek to invest in junk bonds/growth stocks with strong technical chart patterns and sound fundamentals.  During high risk environments I seek to avoid Life-Changing losses.  The Issachar Fund seeks moderate capital appreciation consistent with capital preservation.  (Portfolio holdings are subject to change at any time and should not be considered investment advice.) 

Don’t fight the Fed!  The market is trading higher in a low-volatility up-trend as it seems to ignore China Trade, Brexit, impeachment hearings and Hong Kong protests.  A few weeks ago, the market was fixated on the “news” but now it does not seem to care.  What changed?  The Fed!  One thing I have learned over the last 30 years of managing risk is to never fight the Fed.  When the Fed is adding liquidity to the market, it is usually a good time to be invested.  Fed futures are now forecasting a 0% chance of a rate cut in 22 days.  That tells me that the market is not expecting a recession like it was just a few weeks ago.  If the market feared a recession was imminent then I believe the market would likely be expecting the Fed to cut rates, so I am a “happy camper”…… for now.         

My conviction level increased after attending a NAAIM Conference last week.  NAAIM stands for National Association of Active Investment Managers and I recommend it to anyone interested in learning how to manage market risk.  I have been a member for many years, and I sit on the Board, so I am a little biased.  However, this conference was probably one of the best because I now have a better understanding of how the Fed operates and more importantly why it does what it does. 

The Fed has added almost 300 billion in liquidity since the end of August 2019!  Now that is a lot of money that has to go somewhere, and some of that money is finding its way into the stock market as the indexes make new highs.  In October 2017, the Fed announced they would be “tapering” their bloated balance sheet and the Fed stopped reducing its balance sheet in August 2019.  The Fed may have been spooked about something they have not fully disclosed because on October 11, 2019, they announced that they will expand their balance sheet once again.  The Fed was careful to say, “it’s Not QE”!  They were reducing their balance sheet at about $60 billion per month (selling bonds) but they are now increasing T-Bill purchases to the tune of about $60 billion per month until at least March 2020.  As the Fed buys bonds, that money has to go somewhere, and investors seem to like what they see in the market, so a lot of this excess liquidity appears to be driving stock prices higher.  This will likely last until it doesn’t, and no one will ring a bell and say that risk is high, and it is time to sell.  I am watching all of the eggs in our basket and will take prudent action while seeking to maximize gains and minimize losses.             

Bottom line:  QE seems to be driving the market for now so let’s enjoy the ride while it lasts.  I promise to treat your money like it is my very own.  Thanks for Your Trust and may God Bless You and Your Loved Ones!               


Here is a link to the latest
3rd Quarter Issachar Fund Fact Sheet

Member organizations: KA, NACFC, CIF, OSC, NAAIM and here is a podcast link to my interview on The Real FBI.       

Biblical Responsible Investing (BRI) is the term used to describe the activities of Christian investors who purposely align their investment choices to support their Christian beliefs. The Fund is ESG (Environmental Social Governance) conscious, pro-life and pro-family and will not invest in securities with a negative InspireImpact Score.     

In Christ we have redemption through his blood, the forgiveness of sins, in accordance with the riches of God’s grace.  Ephesians 1:7  (We are all children of God (who created everything) so we just need to Believe to inherit the Kingdom!)

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the prospectus, which can be obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting https://www.LIONX.net.  The prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC.   Horizon Capital Management Inc, Inc is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.  Important Risk Information.  Mutual Funds involve risks including the possible loss of principal.  The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions.  If the Fund’s uses hedging instruments at the wrong time or judges market conditions incorrectly, the hedge might be unsuccessful, reduce the Fund’s investment return, or create a loss.  The use of leverage can magnify the effects of changes in value of the Fund and could cause investors in the Fund to lose more money in adverse environments.  The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove to be incorrect and may not produce the desired results.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  If the Fund’s uses hedging instruments at the wrong time or judges market conditions incorrectly, the hedge might be unsuccessful, reduce the Fund’s investment return, or create a loss.  The use of leverage can magnify the effects of changes in value of the Fund and could cause investors in the Fund to lose more money in adverse environments.    NLD Review Code: 3875-NLD-11/18/2019

Market Update: 11-11-19

The Issachar Fund (LIONX), is about 40% invested in stocks and looking for more opportunities!  The major stock indexes have now all broke out above their ceilings of resistance.  That trend break-out confirmed what I needed to do and gave me the conviction to get invested.  We had been in a wide trading range for the last six months as stocks digested the “ramp up” from Christmas Eve to the beginning of May.  I now believe stocks could trend higher into January.  Consequently, I purchased an equal weighting basket of stocks (40%).  Junk bonds are trending higher albeit at a slower pace nevertheless still trading above their 50-dma.  Junk bonds are telling me that investors have an appetite for risk.  The “slowing” slope of the junk bond trend indicates to me that stocks may offer a better risk adjusted return than bonds at this juncture.  Therefore, my focus is on finding more stocks to buy and avoiding bonds.   LIONX is a BRI, Trend Following, Liquid-Alternative Mutual Fund that is Actively Managing  Risk like a Hedge Fund seeking low-correlation/beta/risk to the stock indexes.  When my Strategy identifies a low risk environment, I seek to invest in junk bonds/growth stocks with strong technical chart patterns and sound fundamentals.  During high risk environments I seek to avoid Life-Changing losses.  The Issachar Fund seeks moderate capital appreciation consistent with capital preservation.  (Portfolio holdings are subject to change at any time and should not be considered investment advice.) 

The Fed futures are now forecasting a 3% chance of a ¼ point rate cut in 30 days!  That is a major shift down in the probability of future rate cuts.  I believe interest rates have put in a bottom and rates will continue rising at least in the near future.  The Fed cut rates three times this year and Fed futures forecasted each rate cut with a high probability of accuracy.  The fact that the Fed futures is now predicting only a 3% chance of a ¼ point rate cut is a huge “red flag” as I now expect rates to drift higher.  I believe we will see a lot of money now come out of bonds and into stocks because rising rates are typically not good for bond holders.  I also expect to see money come out of interest sensitive utilities, realty and precious metals and flow into economically sensitive investments like banks and financials.  As money flows out of interest sensitive investments, I expect that money to find a new home in bank, financials and possibly some energy stocks.  Banks have not been performing well this year as rates were heading lower and spreads narrowed.  However, rates have “ticked” higher and I expect to see banks catch a bid and rise into January.  Banks typically make more money when the spread between the short and long rates widen as they have been doing in the last few weeks.  My watch list is chock full of bank and financial stocks just waiting for the right opportunity to add them to LIONX.  I am looking to diversify stock holdings across several growth sectors. 

I am finding a lot of stocks that have been consistently increasing sales and earnings over the last three quarters and have double-digit next year earnings forecasts.  This is very encouraging to me and I look forward to putting more money to work.  I believe the market is getting less concerned about China trade and higher tariffs, a socialist democrat who can beat Trump in 2020 and a Trump impeachment.  Therefore, I expect stocks to continue higher into this seasonally strong period into the new year.  If I am wrong, I plan to do what is necessary to avoid life-changing losses.            

Bottom line:  I believe QE is still the main driving force lifting stocks higher.  The Fed is buying about $60 billion of bonds every month, which is currently predicted to continue until at least March of next year. The market is telling me that the future could be bright for economically sensitive stocks but not so bright for interest sensitive bonds.  If you invest with me in LIONX, I promise to treat your money like my very own.  Thanks for Your Trust and may God Bless You and Your Loved Ones!               


Here is a link to the latest
3rd Quarter Issachar Fund Fact Sheet

Member organizations: KA, NACFC, CIF, OSC, NAAIM and here is a podcast link to my interview on The Real FBI.       

Biblical Responsible Investing (BRI) is the term used to describe the activities of Christian investors who purposely align their investment choices to support their Christian beliefs. The Fund is ESG (Environmental Social Governance) conscious, pro-life and pro-family and will not invest in securities with a negative InspireImpact Score.     

May the God of Hope fill you with all Joy and Peace as you Trust in Him, so that you may overflow with Hope by the power of the Holy Spirit.  Romans 15:13

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the prospectus, which can be obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting https://www.LIONX.net.  The prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC.   Horizon Capital Management Inc, Inc is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.  Important Risk Information.  Mutual Funds involve risks including the possible loss of principal.  The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions.  If the Fund’s uses hedging instruments at the wrong time or judges market conditions incorrectly, the hedge might be unsuccessful, reduce the Fund’s investment return, or create a loss.  The use of leverage can magnify the effects of changes in value of the Fund and could cause investors in the Fund to lose more money in adverse environments.  The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove to be incorrect and may not produce the desired results.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  If the Fund’s uses hedging instruments at the wrong time or judges market conditions incorrectly, the hedge might be unsuccessful, reduce the Fund’s investment return, or create a loss.  The use of leverage can magnify the effects of changes in value of the Fund and could cause investors in the Fund to lose more money in adverse environments.    NLD Review Code: 3865-NLD-11/11/2019)

Market Update: 11-04-19

The Issachar Fund (LIONX), is Defensively positioned but that could change very soon!  I made no changes last week, but I expect to get back in the game shortly.  The Fed cut rates ¼ point last Wednesday as expected and the unemployment numbers came in better than expected on Friday.  GDP growth came in at a 1.9% annualized rate for the 3rd quarter. The market cheered the news by breaking out to new highs!  Historically, the market is in a seasonally strong period and I now expect the market to head higher into the new year. I believe the main driving force is more QE from the Fed to the tune of $60 billion per month of treasury purchases.  When the Fed buys treasuries, they add liquidity in the system and that typically is a good sign for stock investors.  I do not fully understand how this “free money – boat load” of QE gets in the stock market, but it often does, and it historically results in a “tide that lifts a lot of boats”.  Other central banks around the globe are also printing money to keep their economies afloat so it looks like we are all in this “sea of liquidity” together.  It will likely not be a pretty sight when they close the QE spigot so let’s enjoy the fun while it lasts.  As the saying goes, “don’t fight the Fed” which simply means get in line, follow the leader and don’t ask questions….yet.  LIONX is a BRI, Trend Following, Liquid-Alternative Mutual Fund that is Actively Managing  Risk like a Hedge Fund seeking low-correlation/beta/risk to the stock indexes.  When my Strategy identifies a low risk environment, I seek to invest in junk bonds/growth stocks with strong technical chart patterns and sound fundamentals.  During high risk environments I seek to avoid Life-Changing losses.  The Issachar Fund seeks moderate capital appreciation consistent with capital preservation.  (Portfolio holdings are subject to change at any time and should not be considered investment advice.) 

 My watch list is full of low P/E stocks instead the usual higher P/E growth stocks.  My positions used to consist of higher P/E multiple stocks, but the market has not been kind to them lately, so I sat on the sidelines.  The character of the market seems to be changing in favor of rewarding Value (low P/E) over Growth (higher P/E) stocks.  I am excited at what I am seeing develop in the market.  My junk bond market indicator is still trending higher indicating that investor’s appetite for risk is still strong, so I am making a list and checking it twice.             

Fed Futures has a 10% probability of another rate cut at the next Fed meeting in 37 days.  I was surprised to see such a low probability of another rate cut and that tells me that bonds may take a breather until they can find another catalyst.  Gold is starting to look interesting again as the dollar declines.  My focus has shifted to low P/E stocks with favorable technicals and fundamentals.  Consequently, I am finding a lot of lower P/E stocks with historically consistent sales and earnings increases for the last three quarters and double-digit earnings estimates for next year.  I believe the higher P/E stocks are coming off the field to let the lower P/E stocks play a while and I plan to get back on offense

Bottom line:  Most of the earnings are out and they were better than expected albeit they lowered the bar to make it easier to beat.  However, the market is forward looking, and I believe the future looks bright.  Please join me as a shareholder and I promise to treat your money like my very own.  Thanks for Your Trust and may God Bless You and Your Loved Ones!               


Here is a link to the latest
3rd Quarter Issachar Fund Fact Sheet

Member organizations: KA, NACFC, CIF, OSC, NAAIM and here is a podcast link to my interview on The Real FBI.       

Biblical Responsible Investing (BRI) is the term used to describe the activities of Christian investors who purposely align their investment choices to support their Christian beliefs. The Fund is ESG (Environmental Social Governance) conscious, pro-life and pro-family and will not invest in securities with a negative InspireImpact Score.     

But to each one of us Grace has been given as Christ apportioned it. Ephesians 4:7

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the prospectus, which can be obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting https://www.LIONX.net.  The prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC.   Horizon Capital Management Inc, Inc is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.  Important Risk Information  Mutual Funds involve risks including the possible loss of principal.  The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions.  If the Fund’s uses hedging instruments at the wrong time or judges market conditions incorrectly, the hedge might be unsuccessful, reduce the Fund’s investment return, or create a loss.  The use of leverage can magnify the effects of changes in value of the Fund and could cause investors in the Fund to lose more money in adverse environments.  The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove to be incorrect and may not produce the desired results.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  If the Fund’s uses hedging instruments at the wrong time or judges market conditions incorrectly, the hedge might be unsuccessful, reduce the Fund’s investment return, or create a loss.  The use of leverage can magnify the effects of changes in value of the Fund and could cause investors in the Fund to lose more money in adverse environments.    NLD Review Code: 3837-NLD-11/5/2019

Market Update: 10-28-19

The Issachar Fund (LIONX), is Defensively positioned in Cash except for one small 3% stock position.  My junk bond average Risk On/Off indicator is still flashing “Risk On”.  However, the junk bond average seems to be up against a strong ceiling of resistance.  My “buy right” discipline has me cautiously waiting for what could be considered lower risk buy points of which I am finding very little to get excited about.  The S&P 500 Index is also trading up against major resistance last reached in July.  This is the third attempt to breakout since July so each time it fails it becomes harder to overcome.  Consequently, I am expecting the market to bounce lower unless we get blow-out earnings, a China deal signing or an over accommodative Fed.  Earnings have been good, but I am not seeing a lot of stocks breaking out of sound base patterns on above average volume, so I remain a skeptic until proven otherwise.  My “watch list” of stocks is full of stocks with, what I believe are, great technicals and sound fundamentals but most of them have high P/E multiples trading near the top end of their 5-year range highs.  In other words, these “leaders” appear expensive and next year earnings estimates are in the low single digits which does not look like a buying opportunity to me.  However, if the market finds a way to prove me wrong, I will be looking for ways to participate in the advance.  I believe it is prudent to sit patiently on the sidelines while the market digests big stock earnings releases and Fed announcements.  LIONX is a BRI, Trend Following, Liquid-Alternative Mutual Fund that is Actively Managing  Risk like a Hedge Fund seeking low-correlation/beta/risk to the stock indexes.  When my Strategy identifies a low risk environment, I seek to invest in junk bonds/growth stocks with strong technical chart patterns and sound fundamentals.  During high risk environments I seek to avoid Life-Changing losses.  The Issachar Fund seeks moderate capital appreciation consistent with capital preservation.  (Portfolio holdings are subject to change at any time and should not be considered investment advice.) 

Fed Watch is predicting a 93% probability that the Fed will cut rates 1/4 % on Wednesday.  I would think the bond market would be excited about an imminent rate cut and would be going up in price, but they are NOT!  Maybe the bond market is telling us that we need more cuts?  During the last round of QE in 2012, the Fed purchased $85 Billion of Treasury Bonds and mortgage notes per month in an effort to revive the market.  On October 11, 2019, the Fed announced a shift in policy and stated they will buy $65 Billion in Treasury Bills during October and November with additional monthly purchases through June 2020.  The Fed claims this is not QE and it is just to meet some short-term liquidity needs in the banking system.  However, I believe they are worried about “liquidity and credit” and they are trying to prevent a potential crisis in the making.  I believe the Fed may eventually be forced to lower rates again after Wednesday due to slower economic growth in America.  This additional stimulus could be the “catalyst” the market needs to take us higher, but it does not appear that we’re there yet.  Germany appears to be teetering on the verge of recession a they just admitted that their “open border” policy has not helped their economy grow as expected.  Maybe they will build a wall after all?  Germany has negative interest rates which means they are GETTING PAID to borrow money. Imagine that!  I believe that our Fed was way too fast to raise rates, and way too slow to cut so we may be headed closer to 0% rates sooner than many believe.  My eyes are on the Fed and how the market responds to what they do!       

Bottom line:  Fasten your seat belts as this week could be a wild ride!  The Fed is expected to lower rates ¼ point on Wednesday and the bond market does not appear to be impressed.  The stock and junk bond indexes are trading at all-time highs and I expect resistance to hold and the market to bounce lower. Cash is a position.  Thanks for Your Trust and Patience!               


Here is a link to the latest
3rd Quarter Issachar Fund Fact Sheet

Member organizations: KA, NACFC, CIF, OSC, NAAIM and here is a podcast link to my interview on The Real FBI.       

Biblical Responsible Investing (BRI) is the term used to describe the activities of Christian investors who purposely align their investment choices to support their Christian beliefs. The Fund is ESG (Environmental Social Governance) conscious, pro-life and pro-family and will not invest in securities with a negative InspireImpact Score.     

Ministries I Support: Our Saviour’s Church, Paul White, Eric Wowow    

 But by the Grace of God I am what I am…. 1 Corinthians 15:10

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the prospectus, which can be obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting https://www.LIONX.net.  The prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC.   Horizon Capital Management Inc, Inc is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.  Important Risk Information  Mutual Funds involve risks including the possible loss of principal.  The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions.  If the Fund’s uses hedging instruments at the wrong time or judges market conditions incorrectly, the hedge might be unsuccessful, reduce the Fund’s investment return, or create a loss.  The use of leverage can magnify the effects of changes in value of the Fund and could cause investors in the Fund to lose more money in adverse environments.  The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove to be incorrect and may not produce the desired results.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  If the Fund’s uses hedging instruments at the wrong time or judges market conditions incorrectly, the hedge might be unsuccessful, reduce the Fund’s investment return, or create a loss.  The use of leverage can magnify the effects of changes in value of the Fund and could cause investors in the Fund to lose more money in adverse environments.  S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged composite of 500 large capitalization companies.   NLD Review Code: 3820-NLD-10/28/2019

Market Update: 10-21-19

The Issachar Fund (LIONX), is in a Defensive Cash position patiently waiting for our next opportunity.  I did not make any changes last week as the market could not muster enough momentum/catalyst to break out about above the July and September highs of resistance. The market looks “toppy” here and I do not see a catalyst to move us past this line of resistance which is less than 1% away.  Better than expected earnings and optimistic forward guidance could propel the market higher but I am not seeing that in the earnings that have already been released.  Actually, I am seeing more stocks come out with good earnings and good guidance then the “algos” work to rip stocks lower.  I have watched many former  “leaders” like the “cloud software stocks” quickly become “laggards” and that tells me risk may be elevated and likely best suited for “traders” instead of “trend-followers”.  My risk on/off junk bond indicator shows that junk bonds are trending higher (risk on), but prudence cautions me as junk bonds approach a ceiling of resistance which could serve as a longer-term high-water mark.  I believe that we are stuck in a 6% trading range since July 26, 2019 until something gives on earnings, China Trade or the impeachment front.  However, if the market finds a way to penetrate resistance, I will be looking for ways to participate in the advance.  LIONX is a BRI, Trend Following, Liquid-Alternative Mutual Fund that is Actively Managing  Risk like a Hedge Fund seeking low-correlation/beta/risk to the stock indexes.  When my Strategy identifies a low risk environment, I seek to invest in junk bonds/growth stocks with strong technical chart patterns and sound fundamentals.  During high risk environments I seek to avoid Life-Changing losses.  The Issachar Fund seeks moderate capital appreciation consistent with capital preservation.  (Portfolio holdings are subject to change at any time and should not be considered investment advice.) 

The Fed Futures are predicting a 91% chance of a ¼ point Fed Funds rate cut at the October 30th meeting.  One week ago, that probability stood at 67%, so the market appears to be predicting the Fed will lower rates in less than two weeks.  With such a high probability of a rate cut, one might think the bond market would be rallying.  But it’s not and yields are actually trending higher!  Yields have put in a higher low and an up-trending line could be drawn across the lows, but we are also approaching a longer term down trend in yields which brings us to an interesting juncture and potential inflection point.  Interestingly, the euro has been rallying strongly (as German bond yields rise) since the 9/30/19 bottom and the dollar has been rapidly sinking since its 9/30/19 top.  I believe it has a lot to do with how the market is positioning itself ahead of Brexit.  Senior officials in the British government said Britain will leave the European Union by the end of the month, despite the Prime Minister’s request for another extension to the Brexit deadline on October 31.  The British citizens have already voted to leave the EU, but the politicians think they know better and have not done what they were elected to do.  Does that sound familiar?

America is experiencing slower economic growth and the Fed knows it!  China just reported their slowest GDP growth since 2008!  The Fed recently announced a QE “lite” version of monetary expansion to the tune of $60 billion/month of short-term treasury repurchases.  When the Fed buys bonds, some of this new money created out of thin air could potentially find its way into the stock market but it might be “different this time”.  The Eurozone just restarted QE again and Japan never really stopped so there is a concerted effort to print money and devalue currencies in hopes of creating economic growth.  However, I believe we are closer to the end of a diminishing returns era where QE has less and less impact (like pushing on a string) at creating economic growth.  Remember the lower rates drop, the less power the Fed will have to spur us out of the next recession.  I believe the dollar may have put in an intermediate term top.  The recent rapid decline in the dollar may spark a “flight to safety” and gold may start to shine again.  I hope that I am wrong but that is what I am seeing in the charts.  Never forget that Cash is a Position!              

Bottom line:  The stock indexes are trading above their 50-dmas and junk bonds are trending higher.  However, the indexes and junks are up against significant resistance and I do not see a catalyst to move us past the highs.  Therefore, we could chop a while and head lower until the market finds a catalyst.  The party does not appear to be over, but it could be getting close.  Thanks for Your Trust and Patience!

Here is a link to the latest 3rd Quarter Issachar Fund Fact Sheet

Member organizations: KA, NACFC, CIF, OSC, NAAIM and here is a podcast link to my interview on The Real FBI.       

Biblical Responsible Investing (BRI) is the term used to describe the activities of Christian investors who purposely align their investment choices to support their Christian beliefs. The Fund is ESG (Environmental Social Governance) conscious, pro-life and pro-family and will not invest in securities with a negative InspireImpact Score.     

For sin shall no longer be your master, because you are not under the law, but under Grace.  Romans 6:14
(Paul White  does an excellent job explaining God’s Grace.)   

I challenge you to read what God is doing in Liberia and support my Christian Brother (Eric Wowoh): (God’s Grace is sufficient, and His Mercies are new every day!)

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the prospectus, which can be obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting https://www.LIONX.net.  The prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC.   Horizon Capital Management Inc, Inc is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.  Important Risk Information  Mutual Funds involve risks including the possible loss of principal.  The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. Municipal securities backed by current or anticipated revenues from a specific project or specific assets can be negatively affected by the inability to collect revenue, for the project or from the assets. Moreover, an adverse interpretation of the tax status of municipal securities may make such securities decline in value.  There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions.  If the Fund’s uses hedging instruments at the wrong time or judges market conditions incorrectly, the hedge might be unsuccessful, reduce the Fund’s investment return, or create a loss.  The use of leverage can magnify the effects of changes in value of the Fund and could cause investors in the Fund to lose more money in adverse environments.  The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove to be incorrect and may not produce the desired results.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.    If the Fund’s uses hedging instruments at the wrong time or judges market conditions incorrectly, the hedge might be unsuccessful, reduce the Fund’s investment return, or create a loss.  The use of leverage can magnify the effects of changes in value of the Fund and could cause investors in the Fund to lose more money in adverse environments.  Algorithmic trading (Algo’s):  is a method of executing orders using automated pre-programmed trading instructions accounting for variables such as time, price, and volume to send small slices of the order out to the market over time.  NLD Review Code: 3808-NLD-10/21/2019