Category - Weekly Updates

Market Update: 04-13-21

Event or Trend?   Growth Accumulation!        

The Issachar Fund owns growth stocks with accelerating earnings and sales on Sunday, April 11, 2021.
I see a slow transition from value, cyclical, and small-cap stocks back into growth, which is a welcome change.  Since January, I have witnessed money flowing out of many of last year’s growth stocks into previous year’s underperformers. Now, I am seeing the market rewarding stocks with accelerating earnings and sales.  Possibly, the 1st quarter rotation from growth to value was just an “event,” and now we may see a “trend” of growth start to lead again.  I believe most mutual fund money is invested in growth stocks, and the largest funds can afford the best analysts to find the fastest horses in the race.  I want the best of breed stocks for Issachar, so I try to buy the stocks the big institutions are accumulating by studying the chart patterns they are creating.  Whenever a large institution decides to buy a stock, it might take several days, weeks, or months to acquire a position leaving behind a big wave of buying.  During this accumulation process, a big buyer may leave big footprints of price appreciation on above-average volumes.  These footprints of accumulation are what I look for when I am adding to our positions, such as now.  This disciplined system worked well for us last year, and I expect it to gain traction once again as money flows back into growth.  I plan to ride the wave until it fades.  (There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns, or avoid losses.)

The Fed increased its balance sheet last week by $20 billion to a near all-time high!  As long as the Fed remains accommodative, I plan to maintain an optimistic bullish stance.  Sure, anything can happen to upset the market, but I believe the Fed will create more money out of thin air to bail us out of whatever might ail the market.  This “bailout” will likely continue until the world has enough of our depreciating dollar, but I do not see that happening anytime soon.  However, there are no guarantees that the Fed will always keep increasing its bloated balance sheet and trees do not grow to the sky.  There will be a reckoning for this free money printing experiment, but the trend of the dollar is saying, “don’t worry and be happy.”       

Bottom Line: Growth may be under accumulation, taking the lead, and value may take a rest.  I continue to find what I believe are best-of-breed stocks with accelerating earning, and sales and the future looks bright for growth, in my opinion.  I expect 1st quarter earnings to come in better than expected, and I believe the tide could rise and lift many of our boats.  If I am wrong, I rely on God’s Wisdom to do what is right.    

The one who gets wisdom loves life; the one who cherishes understanding will soon prosper. Proverbs 19:8   

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Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the Prospectus, which can be obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting https://www.IssacharFund.com.  The Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC.   Horizon Capital Management Inc. (HCM) is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.  Important Risk Information: Mutual Funds involve risks, including the possible loss of principal.  An investment in the Fund may not be appropriate for all investors.  The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly, and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions.  The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value, and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove incorrect and may not produce the desired results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Ratings are only one form of Fund performance and should not be used as the sole consideration in making an investment decision.  S&P 500 Index measures the stock performance of 500 large companies in America. For more information regarding the fund, including current performance, please visit www.IssacharFund.com.  NLD Review Code: 1073-NLD-04/13/2021

Market Update: 04-05-21

Higher Highs!   Looking Good!        

The Issachar Fund owns growth stocks with accelerating earnings and sales on Sunday, April 4, 2021.  Here is a link to the 1st Quarter Issachar Fund Fact Sheet.  The Issachar Fund Institutional share class (LIOTX) should now be available for purchase at Schwab, TDA, and Fidelity.  I have been buying stocks that appear to be under accumulation and plan to continue as the market rewards us for taking risk.  I believe the market has digested its recent gains and may be ready for higher highs.  From my perspective, the market looks good and could continue to trend higher while new quarter money allocations get repositioned in the market.  I do not see any fundamental roadblocks on the horizon, so we could see another run at new highs for the major indexes.  However, there could be a few earnings blowups. Still, I believe the overall earnings announcements will come in better than expected due to the enormous government spending and relief checks in the system. (There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns, or avoid losses.)

The Fed decreased its balance sheet last week by $30 billion, which erased the prior week’s increase!  This should not be a concern.  However, I will continue to monitor the Fed’s action because I believe they hold the key to the market’s liquidity, which has kept the market afloat.  If the Fed were to pump the brakes on liquidity, it could send shock waves through the system, but I do not see them doing that anytime soon.  However, I believe rates may have temporarily peaked, and we may see money flow out of the financials, which have benefited from rising rates.  If money flows out of banks, we could see growth stocks catch a bid and take the lead for a while.  That is not a prediction, just an observation I would like to see.   

Bottom Line: I like what I see in the market, and I am repositioning Issachar to take advantage of the opportunities that I am anticipating.  1st quarter earnings should come in better than expected due to the excess liquidity that has been pumped into the system, and I believe stock prices should respond favorably.  I certainly hope you had a Happy Easter because Jesus is alive in us, and that is Good News!     

We know that Christ, being raised from the dead, will never die again; death no longer has dominion over him.  Romans 6:9

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Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the Prospectus, which can be obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting https://www.IssacharFund.com.  The Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC.   Horizon Capital Management Inc. (HCM) is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.  Important Risk Information: Mutual Funds involve risks, including the possible loss of principal.  An investment in the Fund may not be appropriate for all investors.  The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly, and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions.  The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value, and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove incorrect and may not produce the desired results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Ratings are only one form of Fund performance and should not be used as the sole consideration in making an investment decision.  S&P 500 Index measures the stock performance of 500 large companies in America. For more information regarding the fund, including current performance, please visit www.IssacharFund.com.  NLD Review Code: 5168-NLD-4/5/2021

Market Update: 03-29-21

The Issachar Fund (LIONX & LIOTX) is lightly invested on Sunday, March 28, 2021.  The rotation trade out of last year’s winners (tech) into last year’s losers (value/cyclical) is still ongoing, and oil is looking better.  It has been a choppy market in 2021, but I believe the worst may be behind us, and the uptrend may resume now that excesses have been worked off.  I view this recent choppiness as a technical correction and not a fundamental change.  However, one never knows how low the market will go, so I rely on sell rules to get us out of harm’s way.  In just 33 days last year, the S&P 500 Index dropped over 33%, while Issachar fell less than 4% after sell stops were triggered.  The S&P 500 Index dropped over 19% in less than 90 days in 2018, and Issachar declined less than 1%.  I am not willing to bet my life’s savings on the Fed’s ability to print money to bail out our next problem, so I plan to keep following my time-tested discipline.  Does anyone believe that the Fed can keep expanding its balance sheet forever without any consequences?  Sooner or later, there will be a price to pay for all this excess spending but not today.  I try to remain flexible and adapt to what is working.  Price and volume tell me all I need to know about where we are and where we may be headed.  My buy list of stocks is growing again with many “pent up demand” theme stocks. I hope to put some money back to work this week if the market meets my expectations. (There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns, or avoid losses.)

The Fed printed another $26 billion last week!  20-year Treasury yields have been rising at over a 600% annualized rate, and 30-Year Fed Rate Mortgages are growing at over a 100% annualized rate this year.  Rising yields have been good for bank profit margins, and the small-cap Russell 2000 Index has a significant weighting in financials which could explain its outperformance thus far.  I believe the Fed could slow the rapid rise in rates by printing more money and buying more bonds because they should know that rising rates and higher taxes could derail this recovering economy.       

Bottom Line: Issachar is lightly invested, and I plan to buy more stocks this week if the market does what I expect.  I have a process for letting stocks pull me in and push me out, and it has served us well by avoiding the significant declines and capturing the uptrends.  I believe the big-cap growth stocks will continue to underperform the small-cap value/cyclical stocks, so that is where I am focused.  Many “pent up demand” stocks are poised to advance, so this is an exciting time to be investing. May God’s peace fill your heart!       

May the God of hope fill you with all joy and peace as you trust in him, so that you may overflow with hope by the power of the Holy Spirit.  Romans 15:13

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Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the Prospectus, which can be obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting https://www.IssacharFund.com.  The Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC.   Horizon Capital Management Inc. (HCM) is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.  Important Risk Information: Mutual Funds involve risks, including the possible loss of principal.  An investment in the Fund may not be appropriate for all investors.  The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly, and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions.  The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value, and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove incorrect and may not produce the desired results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Ratings are only one form of Fund performance and should not be used as the sole consideration in making an investment decision.  S&P 500 Index measures the stock performance of 500 large companies in America. For more information regarding the fund, including current performance, please visit www.IssacharFund.com.  NLD Review Code: 5157-NLD-3/29/2021

Market Update: 03-22-21

The Issachar Fund (LIONX & LIOTX) is 75% invested in 49 stocks (25% Cash) on Sunday, March 21, 2021, with $63mil in AUM @ $11.98/shr.  From 10/30/20 to 3/17/21, oil was up over 73%, then had its worst drop on Thursday by over -7.5%.  On Friday, oil prices rebounded over 3% higher, and I believe we may have just experienced a technical correction to shake out short-term investors.  Issachar holds stocks in the Oil & Gas, Retail, Transportation, Steel, Medical, Finance, and Metals Industries, which could be poised for a nice rebound rally.  I believe the stay-at-home tech trade that worked well for us last year may underperform the back-to-work reopen trade in which we are invested.  The $1.9 Trillion spending bill has to go somewhere, and some of it may end up in the stock market lifting many boats.  I believe we are well-positioned to benefit from a rising tide of liquidity that may reward us for taking risk.  If the tide changes, I will readjust the sails to maximize our gains and minimize losses. (There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns, or avoid losses.)

The Fed did it again!  The Fed increased its balance sheet last week by $113 Billion to a record $7.7 Trillion!  Now that the Fed has purchased $113 Billion of bonds from investors, this money has to go somewhere, and a lot should end up in the stock market, again bidding up stock prices.  No one knows how long the Fed will be allowed to keep printing “free” money, so I plan to enjoy the ride while it lasts.  If the dollar would start to free-fall, signaling possibly the Fed has printed too much; then we could be close to the mother of all bear markets.  However, I do not see the warning signs, but I will keep my eyes and ears open for clues. 

Bottom Line: Issachar is 75% invested in cyclical and small-cap stocks with accelerating earnings and sales that appear to be under institutional accumulation.  I believe we just experienced a technical correction, but the fundamentals and new money creation should help to bid up stock prices.  Yields are still rising, and it has not derailed the stock market, but it could if the rate of increase accelerates.  If the market responds positively to the excess liquidity that was newly printed, I expect to increase exposure.  I plan to let stocks pull me in as prices rise and push me out as stops are hit.  If the market thinks the Democrat proposed higher taxes and increased regulation will kill the economic recovery, stocks could fall into a steep correction.  However, I believe the excess liquidity will boost stock prices, and the uptrend will resume, so I am positioned accordingly.  If I am wrong, I will do my best not to stay that way.  I continually pray that God’s Wisdom would steer us in the right direction and away from danger.      

For I know the plans I have for you, declares the Lord, plans for welfare and not for evil, to give you a future and a hope.  Jeremiah 29:11

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The performance data quoted here represents past performance. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted above. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. For performance information current to the most recent month-end, please call toll-free 866-787-8355.  Total annual fund operating expenses are 2.56%. 

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the Prospectus, which can be obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting https://www.IssacharFund.com.  The Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC.   Horizon Capital Management Inc. (HCM) is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.  Important Risk Information: Mutual Funds involve risks, including the possible loss of principal.  An investment in the Fund may not be appropriate for all investors.  The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly, and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions.  The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value, and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove incorrect and may not produce the desired results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Ratings are only one form of Fund performance and should not be used as the sole consideration in making an investment decision.  S&P 500 Index measures the stock performance of 500 large companies in America. For more information regarding the fund, including current performance, please visit www.IssacharFund.com.  NLD Review Code: 5143-NLD-3/22/2021

Market Update: 03-15-21

The Issachar Fund (LIONX & LIOTX) is 95% invested (5% Cash) on Sunday, March 14, 2021, with $66mil in AUM @ $12.54/shr.  After exiting the lagging large-cap “stay at home” stocks that had performed well for us, I repositioned Issachar to the “reopen” stocks that appear to be leading the market higher. Reopen cyclical stock sectors like Energy, Retail, Machinery, Finance, Autos, Chemicals, and Construction seem to be under institutional accumulation as their prices have risen on above-average volumes.  It looks like last year’s losers are becoming this year’s winners and vice versa, so we will stay here as long as the market rewards us for taking risk.  I like what I see in the market and feel we are well-positioned to take advantage of these new uptrends in the cyclical and small-cap stocks.  These stocks also have great fundamentals of increasing earnings and sales with sound technical chart patterns, so my conviction level is high, being close to 100% invested. I plan to do more buying this week as new money continues to flow into Issachar.  For all the recent new shareholders, Thank You for Your Trust and Welcome Aboard! I promise to treat your money like my very own.  (There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns, or avoid losses.)                    

The 20-Year Treasury Yield has risen over 59% this year!  This also means that the 20-Year Treasury Bond has lost over 13% of its value as commodity prices surpass 18% YTD.  I believe the market is trying to discount inflationary pressures of an expanding Federal Reserve balance sheet that will likely finance several Democrat-led spending bills full of pork.  In my opinion, the good news of irresponsibly spending money we don’t have is it will probably be good for cyclical stocks that may benefit from an accelerated economic expansion.  So far, the dollar has advanced slightly due to higher interest rates, but the negative impact of 28 Trillion dollars of federal debt will likely take a toll on the dollar when the rate rise honeymoon is over.  Check out the US Debt Clock if you want to see some scary numbers.  Our Debt/GDP ratio is now over 145%!  Sooner or later, there will be a price to pay for all this irresponsible spending, but the market does not seem to care for now.  I am dancing but always next to the door listening for any “last call” signs indicating the lights may be coming on, which could be a sign that the party is over.  Until I see or hear the warning signs that it may be time to cash in our chips, I plan to enjoy the ride while it lasts.

Bottom Line: Issachar is 95% invested in cyclical and small-cap names as they appear to be under institutional accumulation.  The “stay at home” tech stocks seem to be breaking down while the “real economy” stocks appear to be breaking out, so that is where we will stay as long as we feel welcome.  If the Democrats keep passing pork-barreled spending bills without Republican support, we may get to a breaking point in the market before the 2022 elections.  The wind is at our back for now, and I expect smooth sailing ahead.  However, may God help us if the dollar starts to free-fall.  I believe that it is only by the Grace and Love of God that America is still a beacon of hope.  Thank You, Jesus!     

Give thanks to the LORD, for he is good; his love endures forever.   1 Chronicles 16:34

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The performance data quoted here represents past performance. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted above. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. For performance information current to the most recent month-end, please call toll-free 866-787-8355.  Total annual fund operating expenses are 2.56%.

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the Prospectus, which can be obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting https://www.IssacharFund.com.  The Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC.   Horizon Capital Management Inc. (HCM) is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.  Important Risk Information: Mutual Funds involve risks, including the possible loss of principal.  An investment in the Fund may not be appropriate for all investors.  The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly, and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions.  The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value, and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove incorrect and may not produce the desired results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Ratings are only one form of Fund performance and should not be used as the sole consideration in making an investment decision.  S&P 500 Index measures the stock performance of 500 large companies in America. For more information regarding the fund, including current performance, please visit www.IssacharFund.com.  NLD Review Code: 5114-NLD-3/15/2021

Market Update: 03-08-21

 Fear to Cheer!  Correction Over?      

The Issachar Fund (LIONX & LIOTX) is 100% in Cash on Sunday, March 7, 2021, with $64mil in AUM @ $12.30/shr.  Sell stops were triggered last week, so I followed my discipline and exited positions.  Many indexes traded below their respective 50-day moving averages on above-average volume by Thursday as fear of rising rates dominated the tape. Friday’s better-than-expected jobs report, and the expectation of two trillion dollars of deficit spending seemed to mark a bottom and cheer the markets higher into the close.  It is hard to keep the stock market down for long when trillions of newly created dollars could be eagerly looking for a new home.  It appears to me that big institutional money has been flowing out of the “COVID stay at home” stocks to the “reopen” cyclical stocks like the energy, machinery, mining, retail, and financial sectors.  My watch list is full of “reopen” stocks, and I believe many are extended in price, so I plan to wait for alternative buy points.  I try to remain open-minded and flexible staying in sync with the market, not getting stuck in the bull or bear camp because the market does not care what I think.  My goal is to capture most of the gains in a bull market and avoid the life-changing losses in a bear market. The charts tell me to be patient and let the market prove itself by slowly pulling me in like April 2020 and pushing me out during the COVID Crash last year and the Christmas Crash of 2018. (There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns, or avoid losses.)       

 The Fed decreased its balance sheet last week by $32 billion!  I am a little concerned that the Fed could not stop the 50% rise in 20-year Treasury yields this year.  The Fed has expanded its balance sheet by over $194 billion this year, biding up bond prices, but sellers have dominated and forced 20-year bond prices lower by over -11%.  I believe the market is trying to digest this $2 trillion spending bill by demanding higher yields on government-issued bonds and deciding which stocks will benefit from the excess spending.  I plan to buy stocks that will do well as the economy reopens from the COVID lockdowns.  $2 trillion of newly created dollars has the potential to lift a lot of boats in the stock market sea.  This could be a great buying opportunity!          

Bottom Line: Issachar is in cash, but that could change quickly if the bottom on Friday holds and institutions continue buying.  When institutional money moves in and out of the market, they show their hand by leaving big volume footprints.  I believe the big boys have been selling last year’s winners and buying cyclical stocks based on a robust economic recovery expectation.  Once the COVID “fear” runs out of steam and Americans get back to “normal,” I expect the economy could zoom higher as $2 trillion finds a happy home. I believe the correction could be over, and a new breed of stocks could lead us higher.  The Bible tells us that fear is not from God, so fear not!          

There is no fear in love. But perfect love drives out fear, because fear has to do with punishment. The one who fears is not made perfect in love. John 4:18

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The performance data quoted here represents past performance. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted above. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. For performance information current to the most recent month-end, please call toll-free 866-787-8355.  Total annual fund operating expenses are 2.56%.

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the Prospectus, which can be obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting https://www.IssacharFund.com.  The Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC.   Horizon Capital Management Inc. (HCM) is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.  Important Risk Information: Mutual Funds involve risks, including the possible loss of principal.  An investment in the Fund may not be appropriate for all investors.  The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly, and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions.  The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value, and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove incorrect and may not produce the desired results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Ratings are only one form of Fund performance and should not be used as the sole consideration in making an investment decision.  S&P 500 Index measures the stock performance of 500 large companies in America. For more information regarding the fund, including current performance, please visit www.IssacharFund.com.  NLD Review Code: 5100-NLD-3/8/2021